The likelihood of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as the GOP's presidential nominee has given Democrats newfound optimism about their prospects for down-ballot success in 2016. A Hillary Clinton landslide could force Republicans in swing and light-red districts to run against the top of their own ticket and to argue that they would be needed in Congress as a check on a Clinton agenda. There is mounting debate within both parties about whether Trump or Cruz would be the bigger down-ballot drag on the GOP. Trump could generate unprecedented turnout among Latinos and Asians who could be inclined to vote a straight Democratic ticket. Cruz runs better in ballot tests against Clinton, but he could be easier for Democrats to tie to GOP incumbents because he's a sitting senator with a record in Washington. On a race-by-race basis, Democrats' case for a 30 seat pickup is still extremely difficult to make. The first 15 or so most vulnerable GOP seats are terrific Democratic pickup opportunities, but the quality of targets declines considerably from there. History and timing aren't on Democrats'

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