It's no secret that House Democrats, and most Democratic strategists in general, would love nothing more than for Donald Trump or Ted Cruz to win the GOP presidential nomination. If either were to top the ticket, many Republicans in swing districts would have little choice but to awkwardly run as far away as possible, while challengers could theoretically take advantage of sky-high base Democratic turnout generated by a polarizing opponent. But before Democrats can make GOP incumbents squirm, they need credible candidates in place who are ready to capitalize on a potential Trump or Cruz nomination. The challenge for Democratic recruiters is that many would-be challengers don't want to undertake a long-shot congressional bid unless they know what the top of the ticket will look like. Congressional filing deadlines have already passed in 11 states, and by the end of March, filing deadlines will have passed in 28 states. The GOP nomination race could conceivably continue beyond then. End-of-year FEC reports shed light on Democrats' dilemma. Democrats would need to pick up 30 GOP-held seats to take back the House,
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