It's not quite a mass exodus, but nearly four dozen members of the House are headed for the exits this year. Despite the GOP's historic majority, nearly two thirds are Republicans - including over a dozen members of the class of 2010. The good news for both parties - but especially Republicans - is that a majority of these are safe seats. We currently rate only 13 of these seats as vulnerable, including three now held by Democrats. Democrats are virtually guaranteed to pick up the open seats of GOP Reps. Dan Webster (FL-10), David Jolly (FL-13) and Randy Forbes (VA-04) thanks to redistricting. But even if Democrats sweep this trio, they could easily lose the open seats of Democratic Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Patrick Murphy (FL-18) and Steve Israel (NY-03). Both AZ-01 and FL-18 lean Republican, but Republicans are badly divided. The reverse is true in NY-03. If Democrats want to have any hope for a majority, they'll need to pick up the open seats of GOP Reps. John Kline (MN-02), Joe Heck (NV-03), Chris Gibson (NY-19), Richard Hanna

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