Three weeks out, the House landscape has bifurcated: in well-educated suburban districts, Donald Trump's atrocious numbers - especially with women - means GOP candidates are fighting his toxicity as much as they are fighting their Democratic opponents. This is still true for several strong, well-funded incumbents who have disavowed the nominee, such as GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock (VA-10), who moves to the Toss Up column. In other types of districts, Hillary Clinton is an even bigger drag than Trump. In blue-collar seats like MI-07 and WI-08, Democrats' messaging tying GOP candidates to Trump has either fallen flat or Democrats have been forced to attack Republicans on other issues like trade. This unevenness helps explain why Democrats' upside is limited. Our outlook remains a Democratic gain in the 5 to 20 seat range, short of the 30 they need for a majority. Rating Changes
AZ-01: OPEN (Kirkpatrick) (D) - Northeast: Flagstaff, Navajo Nation, Casa Grande Lean Democratic. This open northern Arizona seat is closely divided, but Republicans are perpetually their own worst enemies here. In August, Democrats nominated former state
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