Many analysts have devoted endless hours to pondering the Republican Party's woes with Latino voters and prescriptions for how the party can fix them in time for 2016. There's little doubt that the past decade's heated immigration reform debates have badly damaged the GOP's standing with Latinos, whom Mitt Romney lost by 44 points in 2012 and with Asian voters as well, whom Romney lost by 47 points. To add to the alarm bells for the GOP, Latinos were seven percent of all voters in 2000, eight percent in 2004, nine percent in 2008 and ten percent in 2012 - see a pattern? But while Latinos are no doubt an important persuasion target for the GOP, they may not be the minority group most likely to determine next year's outcome. Rather, the key to 2016 may be whether Hillary Clinton and Democrats can motivate African-Americans to turn out in just as big numbers without Barack Obama on the ballot. According to exit polls, African-Americans were just 10 percent of the electorate in 2000 and 11 percent in 2004, but rose

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