This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 14, 2017 The bottom didn’t fall out for Republicans in this week’s House special election to replace newly-minted CIA Director Mike Pompeo, but a yellow caution light is definitely flashing for the GOP. State Treasurer Ron Estes, the Republican nominee in Kansas’s 4th District, beat civil rights attorney James Thompson, the Democratic standard-bearer, by 7 points, 53 to 46 percent. This wouldn’t be a bad margin if Pompeo had not won the district by 31 points last November, President Trump had not carried it by 27 points (60 to 33 percent), and Mitt Romney not prevailed by 26 points (62 to 36 percent) in 2012. The 4th District has a Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+15, meaning that it tends to vote about 15 points more Republican than the country as a whole, making it the 74th-most-Republican district in the country. In other words, a Republican should have won easily there. With another special election coming up Tuesday in Georgia’s 6th District to replace new Health and Human
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