This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 14, 2016. If you lined up a dozen or two national political reporters and analysts, most would say that Donald Trump will probably be the Republican presidential nominee. Maybe they’re right, but I’m still a holdout on this point. We’re approaching a critical juncture: By late Tuesday night, we ought to have a fair idea of whether the nomination will go to Trump or be decided at a contested convention. Trump needs to have the 1,237-delegate majority in hand when he gets to Cleveland on July 18. If he is short, he cannot expect to have the party establishment hand him whatever delegates he needs to reach the magic number. We will have a contested convention, and I suspect he will not emerge as the nominee. But if he arrives at the convention with 1,237 delegates, it’s hard to see how he can be denied the nomination. A majority is a majority, and it would be pretty destructive for the party to try to block him. Imagine a simple graph with
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