In less than a year, both parties will have selected their presidential nominees and running mates. With Labor Day, the final stretch of campaign 2016 will begin. Unfortunately most Americans will view the election through the lens of national polls. However it won’t be one national election. Instead, it will be 51 separate elections, one for each state and the District of Columbia (except for Maine and Nebraska, which allocate their Electoral votes by who wins each Congressional district, with the two other votes going to the statewide winner). Watching the national polls after Labor Day is a bit like going to a football game and focusing exclusively on total yardage gained, or a baseball game and only watching the number of hits by each team. Those numbers are useful and interesting metrics, but they aren’t victor-determining. And every once in a while, like in 1876, 1888 and 2000, one candidate wins the national popular vote and the other the Electoral College and with it, the election. Effectively there are only about a dozen states that are actually in play:
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