This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 17, 2016 For the more conventional, establishment-oriented Republicans in this presidential election, things could be worse—but it’s hard to see how. Some now believe that Donald Trump’s nomination is inevitable, that he can’t be prevented from hitting the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination before the July 18 Republican National Convention in Cleveland. Personally, I still think there is a decent chance that he comes in a bit short of that magic number, and thus a contested convention will occur. My view is that Trump does not get a gimme putt on this course; he has to hit the ball in the hole. I don’t see Trump going ball-cap-in-hand to RNC Chair Reince Priebus and getting a loan of 100 delegates or so if he’s short. Numbers compiled by The Green Papers show that Trump has won 7.5 million votes so far, just 37 percent of the 20.3 million Republican ballots cast. Trump is averaging 36 percent of the Republican vote in the Realclearpolitics.com average of the major national polls.
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