GOP Gripped by Gloom as Democrats Stay Hopeful

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 4, 2016 Re­pub­lic­an pros fall in­to two cat­egor­ies: The op­tim­ists are deeply con­cerned, while the pess­im­ists are des­pond­ent. Among GOP op­er­at­ives around Cap­it­ol Hill, who see Don­ald Trump as the likely if not in­ev­it­able Re­pub­lic­an nom­in­ee, there is fear that main­stream Re­pub­lic­ans will stay home in large num­bers. This would cost down-bal­lot GOP can­did­ates con­sid­er­able sup­port from the party faith­ful, nev­er mind what they might have picked up from in­de­pend­ents, who gave Mitt Rom­ney a 5-point edge in a gen­er­al elec­tion he lost by 4 points. Re­pub­lic­ans who see Trump com­ing up short of 1,237 del­eg­ates, trig­ger­ing a con­tested con­ven­tion, worry that the party will be badly di­vided go­ing in­to the Novem­ber gen­er­al elec­tion. If Ted Cruz is the nom­in­ee, some Re­pub­lic­an politicos be­lieve it would be a dis­aster. Oth­ers are jit­tery but are not con­vinced that he would be a weak nom­in­ee who would cost the GOP a bunch of seats. Of­fi­cial Wash­ing­ton’s an­ti­pathy to­ward Cruz is so per­vas­ive that dis­pas­sion­ate ana­lys­is is hard to find. The polling I’m see­ing