This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on December 27, 2016 The November elections pitted Democrats against Republicans, conservatives against liberals, Trump-style populists and tea partiers against the establishment and conventional politicians. Another contest, followed mainly by political aficionados, matched traditional pollsters against newly fashionable analytics wizards, some of whom—pretentiously in my opinion—called themselves “data scientists.” It was well known that traditional polling was having problems. The numbing effect of billions of telemarketing calls and the advent of caller ID and voice mail had reduced response rates (the percentage of completed interviews for every hundred attempts) from the 40s a couple of decades ago to the high single digits. As they struggled to get truly representative samples, pollsters “weighted” their data more than ever before, making assumptions of what the electorate would look like on election days that were weeks, months, or even a year or more away. Problems with traditional, live-telephone polling led to experimentation and more recently a growing acceptance of new methods like Interactive Voice Response, popularly known as robo-polls, and on-line polling. Each new method brings
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