The race for the Republican nomination has featured more plot twists and made-for-TV melodrama than the Bachelor. In fact, the polling favorite is a reality TV star whose platform mainly consists of boastful tweets, inflammatory rants, and -- as our office mate Ashton Barry put it -- rallies that resemble monster truck shows. But, until voting actually begins, it's impossible to know whether 2016 will be the year an insurgent candidate finally sets fire to the GOP as we know it. Perhaps 2016 will revert to the norm of a more conventional nominee after all. In a few weeks, the state-by-state slog for the 2,472 delegates to Cleveland will start mattering more than tweets or national polls. To clarify a complex calendar, we have devised a scorecard estimating how many delegates a candidate in either "lane" of the GOP - establishment and insurgent - would need to win in each primary and caucus to reach the magic number of 1,236. Our scorecard relies on the premise, backed by recent polling and past results, that insurgent candidates like Donald Trump and
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