History shows it's extremely difficult for a presidential candidate to succeed a two-term president of the same party, especially one with approval ratings as middling as President Obama's. The "time for change" dynamic in 2016 should no doubt benefit Republicans. However, a common Democratic counter-argument is that the shifting demographics of the American electorate will continue to doom the GOP in the Electoral College. It's true that Democrats continue to benefit enormously from the rise of non-white voters, who amounted to just 12 percent of all voters in 1980 but comprised 28 percent in 2012. In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and won a huge landslide. In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney took 59 percent of white voters - three points better - but lost by four points overall. President Obama took just 39 percent of whites in 2012, but captured 81 percent of non-whites. So, what will the American electorate look like in 2016, and what does it mean for both parties' White House hopes? After diving into Census data from the past few years
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.