Let's face it, Donald Trump's campaign is going to be like a tire with a bad leak: The car will go on for a while, but losing speed and increasingly wobbling, so this vehicle is not likely to make it to the finish line at the Cleveland convention. It would be a serious mistake to ignore Trump's supporters and the views they represent, but the actual candidate has real troubles. Before too long, conversations are going to move beyond Trump. There are as many ways to look at the unfolding Republican presidential race as there are people thinking about it, but one common thread is that the fight will come down to one candidate from the more conventional, mainstream side of the GOP and another from the more conservative, more ideologically driven part of the party. For some time my thinking has been that that Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas was the most likely to emerge from the latter, more ideologically driven side of the party. Nomination fights take on a Darwinian, survival-of-the-fittest dimension with the weakest—those with the least

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