This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 28, 2016 With just over 10 days to go before Election Day, the outcome of the presidential contest seems settled though the margin is still in doubt. Of the name-brand polls, Fox News has the race closest—Hillary Clinton up 3 in a four-way race, up 5 when she and Donald Trump are matched head-to-head. The widest leads are 9 points (CBS News) and 11 (NBC News/Wall Street Journal). The ABC News tracking poll is squarely in the middle, with Clinton up 6 points in a four-way heat and 7 in a two-way race. Nobody was ever going to win this race by double digits because too many voters hate one or the other candidate. Clinton and Trump have high floors and low ceilings. If they were stocks, you would say they have a narrow trading range. By comparison, President Obama beat Mitt Romney by 3.9 points in 2012 and Bill Clinton beat President George H.W. Bush by 5.6 points in 1992. President George W. Bush bested John Kerry by about 2.46
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