This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 28, 2016 With just over 10 days to go be­fore Elec­tion Day, the out­come of the pres­id­en­tial con­test seems settled though the mar­gin is still in doubt. Of the name-brand polls, Fox News has the race closest—Hil­lary Clin­ton up 3 in a four-way race, up 5 when she and Don­ald Trump are matched head-to-head. The widest leads are 9 points (CBS News) and 11 (NBC News/Wall Street Journ­al). The ABC News track­ing poll is squarely in the middle, with Clin­ton up 6 points in a four-way heat and 7 in a two-way race. Nobody was ever go­ing to win this race by double di­gits be­cause too many voters hate one or the oth­er can­did­ate. Clin­ton and Trump have high floors and low ceil­ings. If they were stocks, you would say they have a nar­row trad­ing range. By com­par­is­on, Pres­id­ent Obama beat Mitt Rom­ney by 3.9 points in 2012 and Bill Clin­ton beat Pres­id­ent George H.W. Bush by 5.6 points in 1992. Pres­id­ent George W. Bush bested John Kerry by about 2.46

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