Last week’s terrorist attacks in Paris amounted to a 9/11 event for the French and, for Americans, a vivid memory of that horrific day 14 years ago. It also reminds us that we could very well have another—experts say it’s almost inevitable. So, what effect will the tragedy in Paris have on the U.S. presidential campaign and next year’s election? The short answer: Ask me again in 50 weeks. But let’s parse the possibilities. While Donald Trump’s bluntness—“I would bomb the shit out of them”—elicited some huzzahs, it seems likely that the massacres in Paris will inject a degree of seriousness into the campaign that hasn’t been evident during the past five months. But how serious, and how long might it last? Which candidates, and which party, might this help or hurt? These are tougher calls. They’re almost like a Rorschach test: What you see depends on who you are and what you already believe. Think about Hillary Clinton. Some would conclude that she’ll be helped politically because of her credential as a former secretary of State. Unless, that is,

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