This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 5, 2016

Is the 2016 presidential race over? I suppose the answer to that question turns on how you define “over.” Is there anything approaching certainty about the outcome? Of course not; human behavior and elections don’t lend themselves to much certainty, especially not this year. Exogenous events such as international crises, economic and financial calamities, debates, and the potential for other political mishaps always introduce a level of doubt. Having said all that, it would appear that Donald Trump has fashioned a noose and seems hell-bent on leaping off a platform. The guy can’t seem to help himself. He has convinced himself that there really is nothing that he can say that will alienate his voters. That might well be the case with his base, but won’t likely work so well with the undecided and swing voters that are not already his. They appear to be reacting rather negatively to his bizarre behavior. Even putting aside for a moment Trump and Hillary Clinton, Democrats start off with certain advantages. The

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