This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 9, 2016 There’s no doubt that the presidential race has tightened up, but the operative question is whether Donald Trump has caught up or even overtaken Hillary Clinton. Polls are coming in by the bushel, some traditionally reliable, others of dubious quality. The CNN/ORC poll released on Tuesday caught a lot of attention. The sample of all registered voters showed Clinton ahead by 3 points, 44 to 41 percent, in the four-way trial heat, which was very much in line with most other polls. But among likely voters, Trump edged ahead by 2 points, 45 to 43 percent. Granted, we are talking about margins well within the polls’ +/-3.5 percent margin of error, but it was only the second time since May that one of the big six, brand-name surveys—ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, CNN/ORC, Fox News, Pew Research, and NBC/Wall Street Journal—showed Trump ahead in a four-way heat (CNN/ORC had him in front by 5 points in late July). A total of 73 polls with four-way measurements were covered during
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