This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 14, 2016 What a difference a week makes. In the wake of the first presidential debate, Hillary Clinton looked to be pulling away in the presidential race, the fight over the Senate majority was an even-money bet, and Republican control of the House seemed to be a cinch. Today, the presidential race looks like a cakewalk for Clinton, the Republican Senate majority looks tenuous, and heaven only knows about the House. While there is little evidence of real progress for House Democrats, Republicans are trying to find their way through a fog of uncertainty: Are they going to vote in customary numbers? Are they going to vote for the top of the ticket and candidates down-ballot? Or are they going to take retribution against GOP officeholders and candidates who disavow Trump—or don’t disavow him? In many conservative Southern, border South, small-town, and rural districts, as well as states in which tea-party conservatives dominate the party apparatus, the base will largely be loyal to Trump and only punish candidates who disavow him.
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