This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 14, 2016 What a dif­fer­ence a week makes. In the wake of the first pres­id­en­tial de­bate, Hil­lary Clin­ton looked to be pulling away in the pres­id­en­tial race, the fight over the Sen­ate ma­jor­ity was an even-money bet, and Re­pub­lic­an con­trol of the House seemed to be a cinch. Today, the pres­id­en­tial race looks like a cake­walk for Clin­ton, the Re­pub­lic­an Sen­ate ma­jor­ity looks tenu­ous, and heav­en only knows about the House. While there is little evid­ence of real pro­gress for House Demo­crats, Re­pub­lic­ans are try­ing to find their way through a fog of un­cer­tainty: Are they go­ing to vote in cus­tom­ary num­bers? Are they go­ing to vote for the top of the tick­et and can­did­ates down-bal­lot? Or are they go­ing to take re­tri­bu­tion against GOP of­fice­hold­ers and can­did­ates who dis­avow Trump—or don’t dis­avow him? In many con­ser­vat­ive South­ern, bor­der South, small-town, and rur­al dis­tricts, as well as states in which tea-party con­ser­vat­ives dom­in­ate the party ap­par­at­us, the base will largely be loy­al to Trump and only pun­ish can­did­ates who dis­avow him.

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