This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 9, 2016. Generally speaking, much of the focus in elections is on the “swing vote.” This is usually defined as undecided voters; voters who are leaning but not committed to either candidate; or to independent voters and soft partisans—people who don’t claim to be a member of either party but lean toward one party or the other. These are “persuadable” voters, the ones that both sides try to pull over to their side, just as kids do in the game “red rover.” But as I argued last week, pure independents—that is, people who don’t lean toward either party—are mainly undecided because they’ve checked out of the political process. They don’t read newspapers, watch television news, or follow politics. Most important, they usually they don’t vote. They often make it past pollster screens by fibbing about their intentions, polluting the pool of real swing voters. Roughly speaking, 90 percent of partisans can be counted on to vote for their party’s candidates, while 80 percent or more of independents who lean toward one

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