When Trends Collide

The Gallup Organization's tracking poll released this past Monday was the second national survey this month to put President Obama's job approval rating at 50 percent. It was the first time since June 2013 that Gallup's continuous three-night moving average had touched that point. An ABC News/Washington Post survey conducted January 12-15 also showed Obama with a 50 percent approval rating. That was the first time he had hit that point in the poll since May 2013—a pattern almost identical to Gallup's. It should be noted that the president's disapproval rating is very nearly as high: 45 percent in Gallup, 44 percent in the ABC/Post survey. And plenty of surveys this month have pegged Obama's approval rating below 50 percent—but almost all of them have reported higher numbers than they did just two or three months ago. As recently as September and October, Gallup polling had Obama's job-approval rating as low as 38 percent. An oft-cited statistic is that, in five of the six post-World-War-II elections that took place after one party had held the White House for eight consecutive