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House Overview|By David Wasserman, November 7, 2016

In August, Seattle Democrat Pramila Jayapal was the top vote getter in the all-party primary for a U.S. House seat left open by the retirement of Rep. Jim McDermott, who has represented the state of Washington for the last 28 years. Next week, she’ll likely become the first Indian-American woman elected to Congress.

Georgia Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, November 4, 2016

The tightening of the polls in the presidential contest and in Senate races that has occurred over the past few days has extended to the 12 gubernatorial contests on the ballot. Strategists from both parties acknowledge that Republicans are the beneficiaries in most cases. They also note that some of these contests are so close that it wouldn’t take much to push them either way.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 4, 2016

Ever since the news broke on Fri­day that new emails had emerged that could per­tain to the in­vest­ig­a­tion of Hil­lary Clin­ton’s private serv­er, the ques­tion on pretty much every­one’s mind has been how it would af­fect the out­come of the pres­id­en­tial race.

Battleground States|By Michael Nelson, November 3, 2016

Utah has gone Republican in each of the last twelve presidential elections, often giving the GOP nominee 60%-plus of the vote. Yet this year most classify it only as “Lean Republican.” What’s going on?

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, November 3, 2016

Days after the release of the Access Hollywood tape on October 7, Senate Republican incumbents and challengers saw a drop in support. At the time, the speculation was that the drop was caused by "casual" Republican voters losing interest in the race. It didn't appear that Republicans were recovering and thus we increased the range of Democratic gains to five to seven seats.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, November 3, 2016

A tightening race nationally has also translated into tightening at the state level. States that were trending Trump’s way in September started to slip away from him in early October. Now, with the focus more on Clinton’s emails than on Trump’s debate performances or his Twitter spats, states like Iowa and Ohio are moving back in Trump’s direction.

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, November 2, 2016

WISCONSIN:  In politics, like most things in life, money talks.  In the case of this race between GOP U.S. Sen Ron Johnson and former Democratic U.S. Sen, Russ Feingold money is talking loudly.  This contest has been leaning in Democrats' direction, but last Friday Democratic super PAC Senate Majority PAC suddenly made a $2 million investment in the race.  Interesting, but...

Battleground States|By Michael Nelson, November 2, 2016

Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson is professor of political science at Wayne State University, where she teaches courses on public administration and public policy. She is the primary author of The Political and Institutional Effects of Term Limits as well as multiple journal articles.

House Overview|By David Wasserman, November 2, 2016

The presidential race may be inducing whiplash, but the House battleground remains relatively stable in the final week. We rate only 40 House races in Lean or Toss Up, and Democrats would need to sweep 35 of them to win control, so Republicans remain overwhelming favorites to hold onto their majority. But there is still plenty of uncertainty about the size of that majority: Democrats could gain...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Presidency Headed in the Wrong Direction

March 28, 2017

Nobody knows where this nas­cent Don­ald Trump pres­id­ency is go­ing. New ad­min­is­tra­tions start off with an in­fin­ite num­ber of po­ten­tial tra­ject­or­ies, but this one is even more un­pre­dict­able than oth­ers. Trump could still turn out to be a suc­cess­ful pres­id­ent. As an Amer­ic­an, I cer­tainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thou­sand cuts.”

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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