Where you live has become a solid predictor of how you’ll vote. And, despite a tumultuous beginning to the Trump era, the geographic divide has shown no signs of budging.
There are three distinctive seasons in the biannual election cycle. The first is to figure out what happened in the last election and why. The second is to recruit the strongest candidates you can find. The third is the campaign itself. The Republican National Committee’s autopsy of the 2012 election, under the direction of then-party chairman Reince Priebus, was...
The departures of five members for various cabinet and state-level positions has spawned a packed season of House special elections between April and June. Budget and health care fights could turn these contests into message testing opportunities for parties and groups, but most are taking place in safe seats.
In many ways, the challenge facing Republicans in enacting their American Health Care Act looks pretty close to insurmountable. The most conservative members of the House Republican Conference, as well as allied groups such as the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, the Heritage Foundation, and Breitbart News, are deriding it as “Obamacare Lite” and a betrayal of...
President Trump is going to miss Hillary Clinton. Last November, both Trump and Clinton had enthusiastic supporters. But most voters cast negative ballots against one or the other. And some voters, called “double negatives” by pollsters, disliked both of them so much that they picked what they saw as the lesser of two evils or threw their support to Libertarian Party...
President Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton was among the narrowest in history, and the country is deeply split on his job performance so far. But if you feel like you hardly know anyone who disagrees with you about Trump, you’re not alone: Chances are the election was a landslide in your backyard.
Stuff just got real here in Washington. With the introduction of the Obamacare repeal/replace legislation (the American Health Care Act) we are now going to finally find out if an ideologically flexible president who lacks a core governing philosophy (or governing experience) can get an ideologically diverse party with little experience in political power to pass his agenda. At first...
President Trump's election was probably the best thing to happen to Democrats' chances of retaking the House majority in 2018, and his rocky start has the out party energized. But to pick up 24 seats, Democrats will need to overcome their voters' urban concentration and GOP-drawn maps. There are only 23 Republicans sitting in districts Clinton won, meaning Democrats will have to reach into...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Authenticity Is Key to Democratic ChancesJuly 21, 2017
Some on the left say the Democrats’ path to a House majority next year is to nominate passionate liberals who can tap into the energy and excitement that Bernie Sanders generated last year. Moderates say the path is down the middle, nominating pragmatists whom swing voters won’t find threatening. Still others suggest that Democrats nominate veterans, women, and other nonpoliticians who can tap...Read more »
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