Republicans will now have four years to think about what they did to themselves this year, plenty of time to contemplate the consequences of handing over their party’s car keys to the tea-party movement and watching as the quintessential tea partier, Donald Trump, drove the car over a cliff. If Republicans are really, really lucky, their current 54-46 Senate majority will...
John Dinon is professor of political science at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. His books include The American State Constitutional Tradition and he is the editor of Publius: The Journal of Federalism.
It’s getting increasingly difficult to characterize the presidential race as competitive. It really isn’t. Donald Trump’s share of the vote hasn’t plummeted, but his numbers among undecided voters—the crucial swing voters who are not part of his base—have become toxic. He has doubled down on keeping his base intact, making it difficult if not impossible to expand his...
Paul Landow teaches political science at the University of Nebraska Omaha. A former chief of staff to Omaha’s mayor, he is writing a book about the connections between public employees unions, city government, and elected officials.
With less than three weeks to go in election 2016 it is clear that Trump has abandoned any precept of fighting for persuadable voters. Instead, as he showed in every debate including the third and final one last night, Trump is all about stoking and stroking his base. Polling since the first debate has shown an unmistakable pattern - Clinton has been climbing and Trump has been falling - even...
Three weeks out, the House landscape has bifurcated: in well-educated suburban districts, Donald Trump's atrocious numbers - especially with women - means GOP candidates are fighting his toxicity as much as they are fighting their Democratic opponents. This is still true for several strong, well-funded incumbents who have disavowed the nominee, such as GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock (VA-10), who...
Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama’s nominee to fill the Supreme Court vacancy left by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, has, since July 20, held the record for waiting longer than any other Supreme Court nominee in U.S. history to get a Senate hearing on his nomination. Republicans who have blocked such a hearing have long contended that the choice of a justice to replace Scalia should...
With just about three weeks to go until this campaign is put out of its misery, we find Donald Trump impossibly behind and the Hillary Clinton campaign and her allies pushing to expand the map. The question isn’t whether Clinton wins, it’s now a question of by how much. The bigger the margin, the better the odds of Democrats down ballot success. While most Republican senators and many incumbent...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
GOP Faces Trump Effect in 2018February 17, 2017
Many congressional Republicans who had town meetings over the last week or two have gotten an earful from constituents upset over the proposed repeal of the Affordable Care Act or President Trump’s immigration enforcement or both. Some of these highly unpleasant scenes don’t look too different from what congressional Democrats encountered back in 2009 and 2013, rocky years that preceded...Read more »
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