Some people involved in politics evoke the strongest of emotions. Surely, Hillary Clinton is one of those people. In the category of those who have never sought elective office themselves, Karl Rove would certainly be on the list as well. Their lines intersected a week ago with a New York Post report that at a conference, Rove made reference to the much-publicized fall and head injury that the...
While most of the focus these days has been on the Tea Party's success in moving the GOP to the right, not enough attention has been paid to the very real possibility of a Democratic contest in 2016 that pushes the nominee too far to the left. A new poll from Third Way, a middle-of-the-road Democratic think tank, finds that moderate voters are much more skeptical of the kind of government...
At the public opinion polling community’s annual conference in Anaheim last week, Republican pollster Bill McInturff predicted we may soon see a shift in the messaging of his party’s television advertising about the Affordable Care Act. With the bulk of the GOP’s most acrimonious primaries about to end, its candidates can stop trying to outdo each other on just how completely they’d like to...
Each election year has its own unique characteristics. No two are alike, and this is one of the many things that make politics so interesting. Obviously, Senate Democrats are facing tough challenges in 2014. They have more seats up—meaning more at risk—than Republicans. Seven of those Democratic seats are up in states carried by Mitt Romney in 2012 (six went for the GOP presidential nominee by...
Colorado: Last year, it appeared that Democratic Sen. Mark Udall would not get much of a race for a second term. But, GOP U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner’s announcement in March that he would run has changed the trajectory of this contest, and it is now expected to be a very competitive race. Gardner managed to clear the primary field, wrapping up the nomination well before the late June primary....
Every time it seems things can't get any worse for Democrats in Florida's 13th CD, they do. First, Alex Sink lost the high-profile March 11 special election to GOP Rep. David Jolly, 49 percent to 47 percent. Then, both Sink and 2012 Democratic nominee attorney Jessica Ehrlich declined a run against Jolly this November. But what happened this past week was perhaps the most embarrassing episode...
Hawaii: There is probably no state more difficult to poll than Hawaii. There are polls that show Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie in good shape as he prepares to run for a second term and others that show that he might be vulnerable, even in a primary. Abercrombie faces a primary challenge from state Sen. David Ige in August, but all indications are that this is an uphill battle for Ige, who...
This piece by the University of San Francisco's Ken Goldstein caught our eye. Ken succinctly argues, as we too have suggested (see Amy Walter's column and David Wasserman’s posts here and here), that winning close races requires both persuasion AND turnout. The ongoing debate among some prominent modelers over whether winning depends on one versus the other creates the false impression that...
The best thing about long airline flights is the time they offer for delving into long reports, uninterrupted by phone calls and emails. This includes reports from economic departments of investment houses—economic consulting firms and groups that advise institutional investors—that give a texture to what is going on in the economy that can shape public opinion. One of my favorite lines about...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
GOP Divisions Doomed Health Care BillJuly 25, 2017
The collapse of the Senate Republican health care bill isn’t all that complicated and shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Like some bad marriages, you can chalk it up to “irreconcilable differences.” The Senate Republican Conference includes very conservative members who to their marrow believe in minimalist government, especially when it involves health care. But it also includes senators...Read more »
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