There’s a lot that we have known about the Senate landscape since the start of the cycle. We have known that Republicans would need to score a net gain of six seats to win the majority; that Democrats would be defending 21 seats to just 15 for Republicans; and that the party holding the White House tends to lose large numbers of seats in the Senate, the House or more often both in...
The political chatter these days is about the special election in Florida's 13th Congressional District, which was held to fill the vacancy left by the late GOP Rep. Bill Young. The district is considered to be in a very competitive area of the country (indeed, President Obama won the 13th in 2012), and the seat was believed to be held securely by Republicans only by the strength of a longtime...
Republicans have had a good month in their bid to win the majority in the Senate. They continue to expand the playing field. Colorado U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner’s recent decision to run was a big win in this regard. The political landscape continues to favor them, and polls in individual races show that some Democratic incumbents are suffering from increasingly dangerous job approval and re-elect...
In a mildly surprising blow to House Democrats, Republican David Jolly edged out Democrat Alex Sink 49 percent to 47 percent in Tuesday's hotly contested FL-13 special election. The results aren't a perfect harbinger of November, but they do suggest Republicans are on a trajectory to gain House seats - and possibly even their largest House majority since 1928. After all, given the totality...
When discussing Hillary Clinton and her perceived position as a “shoe-in" for the Democratic nomination, someone will invariably chime in "yeah, well she looked like a sure thing in 2008 too, and look what happened there." Even the most fervent supporters of the former Secretary of State are anxious about her prospects, worried that they will once again get their hearts broken. It’s time to...
Years ago, I used to regularly attend CPAC, the annual gathering of conservative activists in Washington, to listen to the leaders in the conservative movement and Republican Party, particularly those with presidential aspirations. It was a good chance to see and hear, in one setting and in front of a live audience, who the up-and-coming leaders on the right were and how people responded to...
Democrats haven't had a week this bad since 2010 and its only Wednesday. While the headlines are focused on Democrats losing the special election in Florida's 13th Congressional district, even worse news came in the form of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll released last night, along with four statewide surveys conducted by a highly-regarded Democratic pollster in key Senate race...
The MVP of the political Big Data set isn’t any one dataset. It’s whatever software the data handlers use to make sense of it all. One software program in particular seems to be creating more handlers. Even now, post-2012, there just aren’t many strategists running around who are well-versed in the “commonly used” statistical modeling programs, all of which seem to have names like flu...
The accolades in honor of Rep. John Dingell, who recently announced his retirement, have been both deafening and entirely deserved. In Congress's history, one could probably count on two hands the number of members who have had as much of an impact on the institution and its public policy as he has. Books could, and should, be written about Dingell's mastery of the legislative process. His...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Trump’s Policies Are a Result of On-the-Job TrainingApril 20, 2017
The media and critics on the Left are having a field day attacking President Trump’s rather numerous and often dramatic changes of heart on policy—whether China manipulates its currency, the necessity of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and NATO, and the U.S.’s strategic posture in Syria.Read more »
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