Of the four challenges Democrats have confronted that made them the proponents and practitioners of campaign analytics they are today, Republicans have faced one. As Democrats did in 2004, Republicans went into Election Night believing they would win the presidency, only to find that tactics made a critical difference at the margin. (For good measure, they were hit belatedly with the same...
Oklahoma Republican Sen. Tom Coburn's announcement that he will retire at the end of this Congress may well have some implications for 2014. According to Oklahoma law, a vacant U.S. Senate seat is filled by a special election. Thus, when Coburn leaves the Senate, GOP Gov. Mary Fallin would call a special election that most assume would be some time in early 2015...
With GOP Gov. Rick Snyder facing a serious reelection race and both parties jockeying for the Senate seat left open by retiring Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, Michigan's House races are the "undercard" this year, but should not be overlooked. Democrats are hoping to take out both GOP Reps. Dan Benishek (MI-01) and Tim Walberg (MI-07), whom they view as way too far-right for their...
The course is predictable. An elected official or a staffer does something that is terribly wrong, unethical, and perhaps even mean-spirited. The news media goes into hyperdrive, a legislative committee cranks up an investigation and issues subpoenas, politicians from the other party attack, and those from the miscreant’s party distance themselves as quickly as possible. The elected official is...
For years, conventional wisdom has held that as independent voters go, so goes an election. Win these coveted swing voters - the moderate middle - and you win the election. Recent high profile elections, however, have undermined this long-held aphorism. Romney carried independent voters and lost both the popular vote and the electoral college. In Virginia, a quintessential swing state,...
Rep. Jim Moran's retirement announcement this morning in solidly blue VA-08 is the fifth unanswered Democratic retirement in a week, raising the prospect that 2014 will be more of a "changing of the guard" year than a "partisan change" year in the House. Altogether, there are now 16 Republicans and 11 Democrats not seeking reelection, on track...
Democratic Rep. Bill Owens' decision to retire from the House after just two full terms ensures a Toss Up race in New York's "North Country" 21st District. Although it comes as a minor blow to Democrats, it's not nearly as much of a blow as recent retirements by Blue Dog Reps. Jim Matheson and Mike McIntyre, whose districts moved from Lean Democratic to Likely Republican...
The gavel has been struck on what has been widely judged to be the least productive session of Congress in history, and now a new one with few, if any, expectations of improvement has commenced. It used to be that this first week of a session was filled with expectations—some unrealistically high, others more plausible—but the general theme was of hope, not the dread or despair prevalent today....
Anyone who pays close attention to political advertising may be sensing that television ads for 2014 races have ramped up earlier and more intensely than ever, but in a midterm election cycle with commercials popping up and vanishing around the country like Whack-A-Moles, keeping a 360-degree perspective can be tough.So here’s your confirmation. Kantar Media CMAG tapped our database to look at...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the TeamJanuary 20, 2017
The general parameters are already well known. In November, Americans elected a president who had no government experience of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy issues and had a proclivity to shoot from the hip, saying whatever came to mind, working off of instinct rather than expertise. We have elected outsiders before, but they have been the governor...Read more »
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