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Michigan House|By David Wasserman, February 24, 2014

After a record-setting 59 years, six rounds of redistricting, and 876 C-SPAN appearances, House Dean and Michigan Democratic Rep. John Dingell announced his retirement this morning. And while the move means fellow Rep. John Conyers (MI-13) is next in line to become the longest-serving member of the House, Dingell's MI-12 remains a Solid Democratic seat. For years, there has been widespread...

New York House|By David Wasserman, February 20, 2014

In 2012, as most of the country was moving towards more polarized districts, the Empire State's got more competitive, thanks to a legislative impasse that threw redistricting to a court-appointed special master. Today, New York accounts for only six percent of all House seats but 14 percent of all competitive House races. And with no competitive Senate or gubernatorial race, these House races...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 20, 2014

I argued in a column last week that, despite the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is certain to run for president in 2016, there's a decent chance—maybe 30 percent—that she won't. Obviously, that means there's still about a 70 percent chance that she will.The article's point was very deliberately not to make a case that she absolutely would or wouldn't run. My intention was purely to...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, February 20, 2014

Lately, Republicans have been been pretty happy with government. Well, with one agency at least. Over the last two weeks the number crunchers at the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office have released reports that include some bad news for two significant legislative priorities of President Obama and Democrats--the Affordable Care Act and the minimum wage. But, not all bad news is good for...

Chart of the Week|February 20, 2014

The chart below illustrates the comparative job approval of the four most recent U.S. Presidents to be elected to two terms, over the course of their respective eight years in office. Now in his sixth year in office, the trajectory of President Barack Obama's public approval currently tracks mostly closely with that of his predecessor, George W. Bush.

House FEC Reports|February 20, 2014

The Cook Political Report has updated its House FEC chart. Figures listed here reflect the most current campaign summary information available through the FEC. Check back soon as year-end quarterly reports for 2013 are incorporated.

House Overview|By David Wasserman, February 18, 2014

This afternoon, Democratic Rep. Rush Holt (NJ-12) announced his retirement after eight terms, while freshman Democratic Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod (CA-35) announced that she would forgo reelection and instead seek the office of San Bernardino County Supervisor. Both seats are safely Democratic and will remain in the Solid Democratic column. When Holt, a physicist, was first elected in a huge...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 18, 2014

At least every week now, there is a new story supporting the narrative of an inevitable 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential bid. Indeed, the conventional wisdom is that it is an absolute certainty that she will run. If anyone is currently saying, flat out, that Hillary isn't running, I haven't come across them. Is the inevitability of her run really as certain as the conventional wisdom...

Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, February 18, 2014

Comcast isn’t just courting Washington influencers in its $45.2 billion bid for Time Warner Cable and about 30% of the US cable market. It stands to considerably expand its influencer audience, stitching together nearly every market in the country with a high concentration of opinion leaders.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Presidency Headed in the Wrong Direction

March 28, 2017

Nobody knows where this nas­cent Don­ald Trump pres­id­ency is go­ing. New ad­min­is­tra­tions start off with an in­fin­ite num­ber of po­ten­tial tra­ject­or­ies, but this one is even more un­pre­dict­able than oth­ers. Trump could still turn out to be a suc­cess­ful pres­id­ent. As an Amer­ic­an, I cer­tainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thou­sand cuts.”

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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