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Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, March 19, 2014

There’s a lot that we have known about the Senate landscape since the start of the cycle. We have known that Republicans would need to score a net gain of six seats to win the majority; that Democrats would be defending 21 seats to just 15 for Republicans; and that the party holding the White House tends to lose large numbers of seats in the Senate, the House or more often both in...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 17, 2014

The political chatter these days is about the special election in Florida's 13th Congressional District, which was held to fill the vacancy left by the late GOP Rep. Bill Young. The district is considered to be in a very competitive area of the country (indeed, President Obama won the 13th in 2012), and the seat was believed to be held securely by Republicans only by the strength of a longtime...

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, March 14, 2014

Republicans have had a good month in their bid to win the majority in the Senate. They continue to expand the playing field. Colorado U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner’s recent decision to run was a big win in this regard. The political landscape continues to favor them, and polls in individual races show that some Democratic incumbents are suffering from increasingly dangerous job approval and re-elect...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, March 13, 2014

In a mildly surprising blow to House Democrats, Republican David Jolly edged out Democrat Alex Sink 49 percent to 47 percent in Tuesday's hotly contested FL-13 special election. The results aren't a perfect harbinger of November, but they do suggest Republicans are on a trajectory to gain House seats - and possibly even their largest House majority since 1928. After all, given the totality...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, March 13, 2014

When discussing Hillary Clinton and her perceived position as a “shoe-in" for the Democratic nomination, someone will invariably chime in "yeah, well she looked like a sure thing in 2008 too, and look what happened there." Even the most fervent supporters of the former Secretary of State are anxious about her prospects, worried that they will once again get their hearts broken. It’s time to...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 13, 2014

Years ago, I used to regularly attend CPAC, the annual gathering of conservative activists in Washington, to listen to the leaders in the conservative movement and Republican Party, particularly those with presidential aspirations. It was a good chance to see and hear, in one setting and in front of a live audience, who the up-and-coming leaders on the right were and how people responded to...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 12, 2014

Democrats haven't had a week this bad since 2010 and its only Wednesday. While the headlines are focused on Democrats losing the special election in Florida's 13th Congressional district, even worse news came in the form of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll released last night, along with four statewide surveys conducted by a highly-regarded Democratic pollster in key Senate race...

Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, March 11, 2014

The MVP of the political Big Data set isn’t any one dataset. It’s whatever software the data handlers use to make sense of it all. One software program in particular seems to be creating more handlers. Even now, post-2012, there just aren’t many strategists running around who are well-versed in the “commonly used” statistical modeling programs, all of which seem to have names like flu...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 10, 2014

The accolades in honor of Rep. John Dingell, who recently announced his retirement, have been both deafening and entirely deserved. In Congress's history, one could probably count on two hands the number of members who have had as much of an impact on the institution and its public policy as he has. Books could, and should, be written about Dingell's mastery of the legislative process. His...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Trump’s Policies Are a Result of On-the-Job Training

April 20, 2017

The me­dia and crit­ics on the Left are hav­ing a field day at­tack­ing Pres­id­ent Trump’s rather nu­mer­ous and of­ten dra­mat­ic changes of heart on policy—wheth­er China ma­nip­u­lates its cur­rency, the ne­ces­sity of the U.S. Ex­port-Im­port Bank and NATO, and the U.S.’s stra­tegic pos­ture in Syr­ia.

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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