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Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, January 21, 2014

Of the four challenges Democrats have confronted that made them the proponents and practitioners of campaign analytics they are today, Republicans have faced one. As Democrats did in 2004, Republicans went into Election Night believing they would win the presidency, only to find that tactics made a critical difference at the margin. (For good measure, they were hit belatedly with the same...

Oklahoma Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, January 17, 2014

Oklahoma Republican Sen. Tom Coburn's announcement that he will retire at the end of this Congress may well have some implications for 2014. According to Oklahoma law, a vacant U.S. Senate seat is filled by a special election. Thus, when Coburn leaves the Senate, GOP Gov. Mary Fallin would call a special election that most assume would be some time in early 2015...

Michigan House|By David Wasserman, January 16, 2014

With GOP Gov. Rick Snyder facing a serious reelection race and both parties jockeying for the Senate seat left open by retiring Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, Michigan's House races are the "undercard" this year, but should not be overlooked. Democrats are hoping to take out both GOP Reps. Dan Benishek (MI-01) and Tim Walberg (MI-07), whom they view as way too far-right for their...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 16, 2014

The course is predictable. An elected official or a staffer does something that is terribly wrong, unethical, and perhaps even mean-spirited. The news media goes into hyperdrive, a legislative committee cranks up an investigation and issues subpoenas, politicians from the other party attack, and those from the miscreant’s party distance themselves as quickly as possible. The elected official is...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, January 15, 2014

For years, conventional wisdom has held that as independent voters go, so goes an election. Win these coveted swing voters - the moderate middle - and you win the election. Recent high profile elections, however, have undermined this long-held aphorism.  Romney carried independent voters and lost both the popular vote and the electoral college. In Virginia, a quintessential swing state,...

Virginia House|By David Wasserman, January 15, 2014

Rep. Jim Moran's retirement announcement this morning in solidly blue VA-08 is the fifth unanswered Democratic retirement in a week, raising the prospect that 2014 will be more of a "changing of the guard" year than a "partisan change" year in the House. Altogether, there are now 16 Republicans and 11 Democrats not seeking reelection, on track...

New York House|By David Wasserman, January 14, 2014

Democratic Rep. Bill Owens' decision to retire from the House after just two full terms ensures a Toss Up race in New York's "North Country" 21st District. Although it comes as a minor blow to Democrats, it's not nearly as much of a blow as recent retirements by Blue Dog Reps. Jim Matheson and Mike McIntyre, whose districts moved from Lean Democratic to Likely Republican...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 14, 2014

The gavel has been struck on what has been widely judged to be the least productive session of Congress in history, and now a new one with few, if any, expectations of improvement has commenced. It used to be that this first week of a session was filled with expectations—some unrealistically high, others more plausible—but the general theme was of hope, not the dread or despair prevalent today....

Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, January 14, 2014

Anyone who pays close attention to political advertising may be sensing that television ads for 2014 races have ramped up earlier and more intensely than ever, but in a midterm election cycle with commercials popping up and vanishing around the country like Whack-A-Moles, keeping a 360-degree perspective can be tough.So here’s your confirmation. Kantar Media CMAG tapped our database to look at...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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Charlie Cook's Column

A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the Team

January 20, 2017

The gen­er­al para­met­ers are already well known. In Novem­ber, Amer­ic­ans elec­ted a pres­id­ent who had no gov­ern­ment ex­per­i­ence of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy is­sues and had a pro­cliv­ity to shoot from the hip, say­ing whatever came to mind, work­ing off of in­stinct rather than ex­pert­ise. We have elec­ted out­siders be­fore, but they have been the gov­ernor...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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