After a record-setting 59 years, six rounds of redistricting, and 876 C-SPAN appearances, House Dean and Michigan Democratic Rep. John Dingell announced his retirement this morning. And while the move means fellow Rep. John Conyers (MI-13) is next in line to become the longest-serving member of the House, Dingell's MI-12 remains a Solid Democratic seat. For years, there has been widespread...
In 2012, as most of the country was moving towards more polarized districts, the Empire State's got more competitive, thanks to a legislative impasse that threw redistricting to a court-appointed special master. Today, New York accounts for only six percent of all House seats but 14 percent of all competitive House races. And with no competitive Senate or gubernatorial race, these House races...
I argued in a column last week that, despite the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is certain to run for president in 2016, there's a decent chance—maybe 30 percent—that she won't. Obviously, that means there's still about a 70 percent chance that she will.The article's point was very deliberately not to make a case that she absolutely would or wouldn't run. My intention was purely to...
Lately, Republicans have been been pretty happy with government. Well, with one agency at least. Over the last two weeks the number crunchers at the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office have released reports that include some bad news for two significant legislative priorities of President Obama and Democrats--the Affordable Care Act and the minimum wage. But, not all bad news is good for...
The chart below illustrates the comparative job approval of the four most recent U.S. Presidents to be elected to two terms, over the course of their respective eight years in office. Now in his sixth year in office, the trajectory of President Barack Obama's public approval currently tracks mostly closely with that of his predecessor, George W. Bush.
The Cook Political Report has updated its House FEC chart. Figures listed here reflect the most current campaign summary information available through the FEC. Check back soon as year-end quarterly reports for 2013 are incorporated.
This afternoon, Democratic Rep. Rush Holt (NJ-12) announced his retirement after eight terms, while freshman Democratic Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod (CA-35) announced that she would forgo reelection and instead seek the office of San Bernardino County Supervisor. Both seats are safely Democratic and will remain in the Solid Democratic column. When Holt, a physicist, was first elected in a huge...
At least every week now, there is a new story supporting the narrative of an inevitable 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential bid. Indeed, the conventional wisdom is that it is an absolute certainty that she will run. If anyone is currently saying, flat out, that Hillary isn't running, I haven't come across them. Is the inevitability of her run really as certain as the conventional wisdom...
Comcast isn’t just courting Washington influencers in its $45.2 billion bid for Time Warner Cable and about 30% of the US cable market. It stands to considerably expand its influencer audience, stitching together nearly every market in the country with a high concentration of opinion leaders.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Presidency Headed in the Wrong DirectionMarch 28, 2017
Nobody knows where this nascent Donald Trump presidency is going. New administrations start off with an infinite number of potential trajectories, but this one is even more unpredictable than others. Trump could still turn out to be a successful president. As an American, I certainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thousand cuts.”Read more »
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In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »