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Arkansas House|By David Wasserman, October 21, 2013

GOP Rep. Tim Griffin's surprising decision to retire after two terms in the House moves our rating of Arkansas's 2nd CD from Solid Republican to Lean Republican. The last House incumbent to retire after less than three terms was Ohio Republican Steve Austria in 2012, who stepped down after redistricting eliminated his seat, which makes Griffin's choice all the more unusual.President Obama took...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 21, 2013

Here’s a question for conservatives and Republicans: Going into the 2012 Election Day, or even in the last few days before Election Day, did you think Mitt Romney was going to win? A couple of months ago, did you think the strategy of threatening to shut down the government or prevent raising the debt ceiling, to force the outright repeal or defunding of Obamacare, would really work? Romney...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, October 17, 2013

Earlier this year, a senior House Democrat ribbed our pessimistic forecast for their 2014 prospects by suggesting, "Why can't you just say 'Democrats can't win a majority in the House, but Republicans can lose one?'" That admonition has never seemed more appropriate.Given the GOP-tilted nature of the congressional map and the dynamics of midterm turnout, we have always maintained that House...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, October 17, 2013

Mostly as a result of the damage House Republicans sustained during the 16-day government shutdown, we are making changes to our ratings in 15 House seats, all but one in Democrats' direction. Democrats still have a very uphill climb to a majority, and it's doubtful they can sustain this month's momentum for another year. But Republicans' actions have energized Democratic fundraising and...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 17, 2013

Conservative icon and Yale graduate William F. Buckley was fond of saying, "I'd rather be governed by the first 2,000 names in the Boston telephone directory than by the faculty of Harvard." At this point I would take the first 535 names out of the Cincinnati phone book over the current Congress.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, October 16, 2013

By now it's clear we’ve got big problems with our political system. We also have lots of ideas for the causes of our current dysfunction. Redistricting! SuperPACS! Tea Party! The Media! What we haven't spent enough time talking about is a solution. If one of the biggest disincentives to compromise is the fact incumbents are more worried about placating their base than winning...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 15, 2013

Google is a pretty amazing thing. The other day I was thinking about the government-shutdown mess and how it might be resolved, despite the element in the Republican Party, and specifically on Capitol Hill, that remains committed to extending the shutdown as a reasonable tactic in the war on big government. Most other Republicans, deep down, have real misgivings about all this, and know it's...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 11, 2013

There is no question that the Republican Party’s brand is experiencing grievous damage. In fact, you would be quite believable if you were to suggest that the GOP has been making an active, masochistic effort to isolate itself from moderate, independent, and swing voters, further exacerbating all the problems with target constituencies that cost Mitt Romney the presidency and the GOP a national...

Florida House|By David Wasserman, October 9, 2013

GOP Rep. Bill Young's decision to retire after a staggering 22 terms creates the first Toss Up open seat House race of the 2014 cycle. Symbolically and mathematically, this is a setback for Republicans at a tricky time: Young is the longest-serving Republican in the House (first elected in 1970), recently came out for a "clean" continuing resolution, and is a proven political icon who thrives...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans

February 28, 2017

The two-thirds of Re­pub­lic­ans in the House who have nev­er served when the GOP held ma­jor­it­ies in the House and Sen­ate along­side a GOP pres­id­ent can be for­giv­en for not re­mem­ber­ing the last time they were sim­il­arly situ­ated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Demo­crats were last in that situ­ation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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