Members of Congress who were dreading a showdown on Capitol Hill over authorization of an attack on Syria have been given a reprieve. Even though the midterm elections are still more than 13 months away, the specter of an attack, and the unknown repercussions that could follow, were certainly on their minds. If the United States launched cruise missiles to punish the regime of President Bashar al-…
Georgia's Senate race is a wild beast in its own right, but it has spawned perhaps three equally wild House races as well. As GOP Reps. Jack Kingston (GA-01), Paul Broun (GA-10), and Phil Gingrey (GA-11) have joined what looks to be a free-for-all in next May's Senate primary, their safely GOP seats are attracting a wide ideological and stylistic range of Republican would-be successors. By contras…
As the GOP leadership in the House struggles to unite its fractious members around a deal to avoid a government shutdown or a default on the nation’s debt, polling from Pew out this week shows why that may be harder than ever.Tea Party Republicans, Pew found, are much more disillusioned with their party leadership than they have been since they came to D.C. in 2011."The job rating of GOP leaders a…
It takes a lot to overshadow the looming fiscal battles in Washington, but President Obama’s decision to seek congressional approval for air strikes against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for using chemical weapons against his own citizens has managed to do it.There are eight legislative days left to pass a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown, and then seven more t…
The gradual supplanting of traditional pollsters by poll aggregators as our national tea leaf readers is just the most obvious ripple from a sea change in the public opinion industry. Experts who speak from the gut about Americans’ mood and sentiment, informed by decades of immersion in questionnaires and focus groups, are in the process of being replaced by experts who speak Big Data. As analytic…
In some odd years, gubernatorial races and special congressional elections offer a foreshadowing, or at least a hint, of what might happen in the next year’s national elections. In other odd years, no pattern emerges. We never know which until after the national elections occur, making the off-year elections a less-than-helpful indicator. This year, the outcome of New Jersey’s gubernatorial el…
With so many Republicans apparently committed to voting against a military strike against Syria, the Obama Administration will be forced to rely on Democrats, including liberals, to win the vote in Congress. From an ideological perspective it looks odd, but members of Congress lining up to support the president of their party - or against the president of the other party - on military action is…
Democrats picked up four seats in Florida in 2012 by claiming both "new" seats from reapportionment and defeating two GOP incumbents who lost for reasons other than redistricting. The delegation morphed from a 19-6 GOP edge to a narrower 17-10 GOP edge, but Democrats are hungry for more in 2014, hoping courts will overturn what they see as an unlawful GOP gerrymander and that attorney Gwen Graham,…
In the thick of candidate recruitment season, both parties are scoring some moderate successes, though Republicans continue to stand the better chance of gaining House seats next November. In California's 7th CD, the entry of former GOP Rep. Doug Ose, as expected, gives freshman Democratic Rep. Ami Bera his strongest opponent yet. And in Virginia's 2nd, Democrats are excited about the entry...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
How Fake News Undermines DemocracyJanuary 17, 2017
Almost 130 years ago, German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a perverse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made President-elect Trump stronger this week.Read more »
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