With the newest controversy over Justice Department subpoenas of Associated Press reporters’ and editors’ telephone records, President Obama and his administration find themselves drawing fire from three different directions. Last week’s stories indicating that the Internal Revenue Service targeted tea-party groups and other conservative organizations for investigation sent a shiver down the spine…
If this month's special election in South Carolina's 1st District had all the ingredients to cook up a national spectacle, the June 4 election to fill GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson's vacant seat in southeast Missouri is a recipe for obscurity. As both parties survey what the trio of ongoing scandals in D.C. might mean for 2014, it's easy to forget that there's a House race in two weeks' time that m…
President Obama and his administration now find themselves in the middle of not one but two tough situations: the tragic killing of four Americans at a U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, and the Internal Revenue Service’s scrutiny of tea-party and other conservative groups. At best, they are cases of bad mishandling and embarrassment; at worst, they rise to the level of legitimate and conse…
The latest Rhodes Cook Letter is now available to Cook Political Report subscribers. In this issue, Rhodes considers the notion of Democrats as the "presidential party" relative to Republicans which now represent today's "congressional party." Analysis of the current set of special elections to the U.S. House is also provided in a section entitled "A 'Special' Time."
The Cook Political Report's House Summary Chart, featured below, provides a complete rundown of all vacancies, retirements, open seats, and potentially open seats in the U.S. House, and is updated each week leading up to every election as the statuses of current incumbents change. Be sure to continue to check back as the 2014 election cycle develops to keep up with the latest news from the House.
It's not as if Democrats aren't already looking at a tough election in 2014. They have lots of red state Senate seats to defend and few obvious GOP targets in the House. They have to prepare for the likelihood of a rough and messy implementation of the health care law they supported. Now pile on the latest White House troubles--IRS investigation of conservative non-profit groups and the Departmen…
Republican Mark Sanford’s victory Tuesday in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District tells us only one thing about the 2014 midterm elections—that Democrats still need to capture 17 seats to win back the House majority they lost in 2010. Nothing more, nothing less. Had Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch won the special election, all it would have demonstrated was that even in such an overwhe…
Yes, South Carolina's 1st District is gerrymandered to be eleven points more Republican than the national average, and Mark Sanford was more at ease on the campaign trail than novice Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch. But Sanford's lopsided 54 percent to 45 percent win after national Democrats spent over $1.5 million in unanswered advertising highlights the main dilemma Democrats face in 2014:…
Here’s a prediction: If not on Tuesday night, then certainly by Wednesday and maybe even through Thursday or beyond, one party will be crowing that its victory in the special election for now-Sen. Tim Scott’s former seat in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is a sign that it is doing great and will have a successful 2014 midterm election. The other party will be downplaying the national…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
How Fake News Undermines DemocracyJanuary 17, 2017
Almost 130 years ago, German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a perverse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made President-elect Trump stronger this week.Read more »
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »