Charlie highly recommends a piece by fellow National Journal columnist Norm Ornstein.
National Republicans have launched the latest salvo in the gender gap wars. Using the Anthony Weiner/Bob Filner scandals as ammunition, Republican groups have been carpet-bombing my email box daily.”Will Hillary Clinton speak out against Mayor Filner and stand up for the women he has victimized?” demanded the GOP SuperPAC America Rising.“RE: Democrats War on Women” read a recent memo penned by the…
So far this cycle, open and vacant House seats look more like a playground for key constituency groups in primaries (such as the Club for Growth on the right or EMILY's List on the left) than for the DCCC or NRCC in general elections. That's because so far, remarkably, not a single one of the 16 open and vacant House seats that have emerged is a pure Toss Up. In fact, we rate just four of the 16 s…
Arkansas: When Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor was up for re-election to a second term in 2008, Republicans didn’t even field a nominee, and Pryor was re-elected with 80 percent of the vote. Just five years later, Pryor is in a very different position, and will face the most difficult race of his political career. The state has become more Republicans since Pryor was last on the ballot. Voters did...
The team here at The Cook Political report would like to highlight a fun map showing various levels of control in each state by the two major parties. Each state has been drawn in proportion to their population (Alaska and Hawaii are excluded because their inclusion would make the map incomprehensible). The map is complements of a longtime supporter and subscriber of The Report, Mike Berman.…
One difference between professional athletes and fans, and between coaches and cheerleaders, is that while all of them see opportunities for their teams, the athletes and coaches are more likely to also see, and at least privately acknowledge, potential pitfalls. The 2014 Senate races, which are really a fight over who will hold the majority in the chamber, provide plenty of pitfalls for political…
In the wake of two polls that show the race between Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell and Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes within the margin of error, the race moves to the Toss Up column. Grimes was ahead of McConnell in both surveys; one was conducted by the Mellman Group for the Grimes campaign, and the other was taken by Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR).
It used to be fashionable to complain about a front-loading phenomenon in presidential primaries. But in 2014, we may see a front-loaded congressional election calendar instead. With fewer "swing" districts than ever before - in 1998, there were 164 seats between D+5 and R+5, but today there are just 90 - has the real action in House races moved from the general election to the primary? The nu…
As I mull over the 2014 midterm elections, I have been thinking along two lines. First, is this going to be a “micro-election,” a Tip O’Neill-style “all politics is local” election? Or will this be more of a “macro-election,” a wave election that pushes forward the candidates of one party and pulls down the other party’s candidates? If it’s a wave election, which party will be the beneficiary…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Two Special Elections Add Suspense to MidtermsApril 25, 2017
Two congressional special elections in as many weeks make clear that while the Republican Party is not in a free fall, things are not copacetic, either. Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes won last week’s special election in Kansas’s 4th District to fill the vacancy created by Mike Pompeo’s nomination to head the CIA, but his 5-point victory was far short of the...Read more »
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