In both Illinois's safely Democratic 2nd CD and Missouri's safely Republican 8th CD, the identities of the next member of Congress look much clearer than they did a month ago. But the same can't be said for South Carolina's coastal 1st CD, where a jumbled stampede of colorful Republicans and Democrats' consolidation around a candidate with star power have set the scene for a dramatic and unpredict…
While Washington may be fully engaged in sequestration theater, lots of American moms are too busy with their lives to pay much attention. Terms like “chained CPI,” “Bowles-Simpson,” and “CR” are getting thrown around Washington with impunity. But, this isn’t the language that moms speak around their kitchen tables. American moms are more worried about filling up their gas tank than the defi…
Democrats face twin struggles as they seek to retake the House majority they lost in 2010. First, the chamber has largely sorted itself out. With 96 percent of Democratic House members representing districts carried by President Obama and 94 percent of Republican House lawmakers representing districts won by Mitt Romney, each party pretty much has the seats God intended. The House simply doesn’t…
A long scroll through 2012's fourth quarter House FEC filings, newly available on CookPolitical.com, yields some eye-popping nuggets. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann spent $25.5 million - much of it on direct mail fundraising - to win reelection in what should be a safe Republican seat by just 4,296 votes. And Utah Republican Mia Love, whom several late public and private polls showed leading Dem…
Don’t be surprised if the barometric pressure in Washington’s atmosphere and the blood pressures of many Beltway denizens shoot up this week. As emotional, important, and timely as the debates over immigration and gun control are, the increasing likelihood that budget sequestration will, in fact, kick in March 1 is just now starting to sink in. As veteran lobbyist and appropriations guru Billy…
The Cook Political Report has updated its 2012 House FEC chart. This chart provides a summary of key financial information filed by House candidates with the Federal Election Commission for the fourth quarter of 2012.
By 2011, Arkansas was the last remaining southern state where Democrats still held the governorship and both houses of the legislature, and with them, the authority to redistrict. And at the rate the GOP is gaining, it may be the last decade Democrats get to redraw the state's four seats. So after 2010, when Republicans flipped Democrats' usual 3-to-1 seat majority by picking up the open 1st and…
As of now, there's widespread agreement in Washington that the sequester--the across-the-board cuts to defense and domestic spending--will happen on March 1st. The only disagreement is over who will get the blame for letting the once unthinkable occur. Republicans believe that President Obama will ultimately take the fall. The buck, they say, ultimately stops at the White House. "People…
The likely voter models used by many pollsters to ascertain which respondents are probably going to turn out for an election seemed to conk out in 2012. A new study by one of the industry’s most respected professionals, to be accompanied by R&D on a new likely voter model, finds that the mid-20th century vehicle was no match for 21st-century demographics and targeting. As they have for de…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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