The chart below displays states according to the average margin with which each state has voted democratic or republican over the last two presidential elections.
Of all the issues raised in President Obama’s inaugural speech, there was one noticeable omission: the state of the economy. The issue that defined the 2012 campaign – and remains the most important concern for most Americans – was only briefly touched in the President’s address on that chilly Monday afternoon. So, while debate and discussion over issues like gay rights, immigration, gun viole…
Nearly everyone views the year-end fiscal-cliff fight as a debacle, but once that is accepted as a given, opinions tend to diverge. While one can say that the vast majority of Bush-era tax cuts were not just extended but made permanent—something that Republicans and conservatives should like—there were effectively no spending cuts, and in no meaningful way were entitlements trimmed or reformed...
Creating the first set of Senate race ratings for any given cycle is usually an interesting process.The only things that are known for certain are how many seats are up, how many of these seats are held by each party, the names of the incumbents, and the political landscape of the states these incumbents represent. There are a few important things that just aren’t known like which sea…
There's no rest for the weary: like clockwork, the aftermath of any presidential or congressional cycle includes a period of reflection and reshuffling, and 2013 is no exception. The resignations of Democratic Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (IL-02) and GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (MO-08), along with the appointment of GOP Rep. Tim Scott (SC-01) to the Senate, have prompted three juicy special elections…
Vice President Joe Biden is the most popular person in Washington these days. That’s right, the guy who spilled the beans on gay marriage and got caught telling a big bleep*%^ing swear word on national television is now being lauded by many in the DC for being the only real grown up in town. Where President Obama and Speaker John Boehner are no longer on speaking terms, Biden is the "McConnel…
Just about anyone who follows baseball has seen a game where all the close calls seem to go one way, benefiting one team at the expense of the other. So it is with the public’s view of the fiscal-cliff debacle that marked the end of the 112th Congress. Neither party should take much comfort from the outcome, when negotiators narrowly averted a fall off the cliff. From the people’s vantage point,…
The most striking aspect of TV advertising about gun rights and gun control lately has been its absence. In an election cycle punctuated by three mass shootings that killed 24 people and wounded 75, President Obama didn’t air a single campaign ad on the subject. Compare that silence on the airwaves during the campaign with all the confabs, talk of “executive action” and imminent proposals coming…
After covering eight presidential and seven midterm election campaigns, I still manage to learn new things or come to view things differently. For many years, I have been fixated on independent voters as the political equivalent of the holy grail. But now I believe voters who describe themselves as moderates are certainly just as important—and perhaps more important—than those who call themselves…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
How Fake News Undermines DemocracyJanuary 17, 2017
Almost 130 years ago, German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a perverse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made President-elect Trump stronger this week.Read more »
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