With five days to go, Democratic strategists are privately coming to grips with the harsh reality that their party isn't even likely to make significant gains in the House. From our vantage point, the net change in the House could end up anywhere from a net gain of five seats for Republicans to a net gain of ten seats for Democrats. But we are downgrading our forecast to reflect that the most...
As Republicans have been striving for the past 22 months to put themselves in position to gain the four seats they need to win a majority in the Senate, Democrats have been working just as hard to prevent it. In this effort, Democrats have benefited from both their own solid recruiting in some races and Republicans’ misfortune in others. The result is that with five days remaining before the vo…
Democrats may succeed in defeating more Republican incumbents than vice versa next Tuesday, but Republicans' advantage in open and new seat takeover opportunities remains a key reason the GOP will hold onto the House by a significant margin. There are 62 seats with no incumbent on the ballot this November, a record since 1992. But of those 62, only 11 are at very serious risk (Toss Up or worse)
Before the first presidential debate, it was easy to say that the face-offs usually don’t matter that much. One had to go back to 1976, 1980, and 1984 to find examples of a debate having a material effect on a presidential election.
To help you keep track of DCCC, NRCC, Super PAC, and other independent spending in House races, House Editor David Wasserman and Web Editor Loren Fulton have created a cheat sheet tallying independent expenditures by race and by group. Between September 1 and October 24, these groups combined to spend $225.4 million...
Senate FEC reports for the 3rd quarter have been filed. Web Editor Loren Fulton has compiled our chart of the results, including cycle-to-date totals for receipts and expenditures, and personal loans by various candidates to their campaigns.
There is little question that the Senate landscape looks quite a bit different today than it did just nine months ago. In February, the chances of Republicans gaining the four seats they need to win the majority stood at between 60 percent and 70 percent. Today, those chances have diminished to between 40 percent and 45 percent. Three unrelated events are responsible for the reversal of Repu…
The presidential picture looks murkier by the day, but the outcome in the House is clear enough two weeks out that House Democrats are openly beginning to discuss new leadership elections in a continued minority. We are likely headed for the most ideologically polarized House ever, with dozens of moderates voluntarily or involuntarily headed for the exits. A single digit Democratic net gain remai…
Partisans still hoping that their candidate will build a clear lead in the presidential contest are likely to be disappointed. The race seems destined to be a close one, with the outcome remaining in doubt to the very end. President Obama won the second debate, but not by nearly enough to make up for his devastating loss in the first one. Obama was on the verge of putting the rac…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Presidency Headed in the Wrong DirectionMarch 28, 2017
Nobody knows where this nascent Donald Trump presidency is going. New administrations start off with an infinite number of potential trajectories, but this one is even more unpredictable than others. Trump could still turn out to be a successful president. As an American, I certainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thousand cuts.”Read more »
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In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »