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National Politics|By Amy Walter, January 17, 2013

Vice President Joe Biden is the most popular person in Washington these days. That’s right, the guy who spilled the beans on gay marriage and got caught telling a big bleep*%^ing swear word on national television is now being lauded by many in the DC for being the only real grown up in town. Where President Obama and Speaker John Boehner are no longer on speaking terms, Biden is the "McConnel…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 14, 2013

Just about anyone who follows baseball has seen a game where all the close calls seem to go one way, benefiting one team at the expense of the other. So it is with the public’s view of the fiscal-cliff debacle that marked the end of the 112th Congress. Neither party should take much comfort from the outcome, when negotiators narrowly averted a fall off the cliff. From the people’s vantage point,…

Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, January 11, 2013

The most striking aspect of TV advertising about gun rights and gun control lately has been its absence. In an election cycle punctuated by three mass shootings that killed 24 people and wounded 75, President Obama didn’t air a single campaign ad on the subject. Compare that silence on the airwaves during the campaign with all the confabs, talk of “executive action” and imminent proposals coming…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 11, 2013

After covering eight presidential and seven midterm election campaigns, I still manage to learn new things or come to view things differently. For many years, I have been fixated on independent voters as the political equivalent of the holy grail. But now I believe voters who describe themselves as moderates are certainly just as important—and perhaps more important—than those who call themselves…

Note to Subscribers|January 10, 2013

The Cook Political Report is proud to announce that Elizabeth Wilner is joining the Report as Contributing Editor and will write regularly about political and advocacy advertising and the use of consumer marketing research in political campaigns. Wilner’s contributions will feature advertising data gathered by her firm, the highly respected Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), where…

Political Advertising|By Elizabeth Wilner, January 10, 2013

Big Data did a cannonball into the political pool in 2012. President Obama’s re-election campaign aggressively—and ultimately, highly successfully—fused its internal polling with a wealth of consumer research to more directly connect polling to advertising, field, and ultimately, turnout. Among the ripple effects: Obama’s targeting trumped Republicans’ spending; analytics-enhanced polling gained…

House Overview|By David Wasserman, January 10, 2013

All seven states with only one House seat have experienced at least one turbulent, competitive House race in the past decade. That's surprising, given that none of these small states - Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming - are particularly competitive between the parties at the presidential level. In 2012, both Montana and North Dakota featured open seat c…

House Overview|By David Wasserman, January 10, 2013

Three days after the election, an e-mail arrived in my in-box from a veteran Democratic media consultant who cut many an ad for the more conservative elements of his party. Like other armchair pundits, he marveled at the ease of President Obama’s reelection and Democrats’ against-the-odds pickups in the Senate but couldn’t fathom how they could have simultaneously “blown it” in the House. In part…

Note to Subscribers|December 20, 2012

Our team is proud to announce that ABC News Political Director Amy Walter has been named National Editor of The Cook Political Report. Walter is a fantastic addition to the publication and the high quality analysis we are committed to providing to subscribers. In her new role, she will provide regular analysis of the issues, trends and events that shape the political environment. Her weekly colu…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Week That Could Revive Trump

May 25, 2017

Last week, it was the role of Rus­sia in the 2016 cam­paign that dom­in­ated the news; this week, with Pres­id­ent Trump on his first over­seas trip and largely stick­ing to his script, it’s more likely to be the sub­stant­ive chal­lenges fa­cing con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans that will move to cen­ter stage in Wash­ing­ton.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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