As the House GOP leadership's purge of three non-cooperative freshmen adds fuel to brushfires sweeping the anti-tax grassroots, three factors explain why Speaker John Boehner's math to reach a compromise is so tough. Over the past four years, his conference has undergone dramatic generational change: 45 percent of House Republicans are freshmen and sophomores, many of whom see the "old guard" as…
These charts highlight the tendency of the incumbent president's party to lose seats in the congressional midterm elections following the president's reelection--also known as the "Six Year Itch"--and of the similar tendency of parties which have controlled the White House for two terms to lose the presidency in the following general election.
It is a source of tremendous amusement to me that one day of every week contains a spate of news stories suggesting movement toward a tax and budget deal, only to be followed the next week by stories declaring that imminent disaster lies ahead and an apocalyptic cliff dive is just around the corner. It’s hard to figure out whom to feel more sorry for: the eternal optimists who think that contrary…
The Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that Sen. Jim DeMint is resigning from the U.S. Senate to replace Ed Feulner as president of the Heritage Foundation. DeMint, a Republican from South Carolina, will "leave his post as that state's junior senator in early January to take control of the Washington think tank, which has an annual budget of about $80 million," the Journal reports. T…
The moral of House Democrats' story may be "so close but yet so far away." Now that partisan control of all 435 House seats is settled (a vacancy in IL-02 is sure to stay Democratic and a runoff in LA-03 features two Republicans), Republicans will occupy 234 seats and Democrats 201 seats in the next House, a net Democratic gain of eight. Instead of needing 25 seats to take back the House, Democra…
After back-to-back disappointing Senate elections in 2010 and 2012, Republicans (and others) are looking at 2014 and wondering not just how similar, but perhaps, how different, they could be. Two years ago, Republicans gained six Senate seats, but that gain was disappointing compared with what they could have won but weren’t able to because of exotic candidates (see Colorado, Delaware, and Nevada…
The 2012 election has only been in the history books for three short weeks, but it is never too early to cast an eye toward the next cycle. For all practical purposes, the 2014 Senate cycle has already started. On Monday, Republican U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia became the first challenger from either party to announce her intention to run for the Senate in 2014. She is seeki…
It’s hard to talk about the 2012 congressional elections without starting with the Senate and the remarkable election night for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Democrats scored a net gain of two seats, something that was inconceivable 90 days ago or, for that matter, on Nov. 5. They held five of their six most vulnerable seats, and no Democratic incumbent lost reelection. Of 10 toss…
Last week’s election is open to so many interpretations, many seemingly contradictory, that it offers something for almost anyone of any ideological or partisan stripe. Let’s take a closer look at the truth behind a few of these selective interpretations. It was a very close race; Obama (and Democrats) won a bunch of states and districts narrowly. It’s certainly true that 51 percent (rounding…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Trump’s Policies Are a Result of On-the-Job TrainingApril 20, 2017
The media and critics on the Left are having a field day attacking President Trump’s rather numerous and often dramatic changes of heart on policy—whether China manipulates its currency, the necessity of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and NATO, and the U.S.’s strategic posture in Syria.Read more »
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