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National Politics|By By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group, Inc., August 25, 2012

Just about any analysis of the 2012 presidential election should start with words to the effect that this is a very close race, that close races can go either way, and that many different factors can change the trajectory of such a race.

Note to Subscribers|August 23, 2012

Last week we launched the redesigned Cook Political Report website. Over the past year we have listened to our users' feedback in order to develop a new website that not only better organizes and…

Arizona House|By David Wasserman, August 23, 2012

House Editor David Wasserman writes: Beyond California, perhaps no state is poised for as big a Congressional shakeup as Arizona, where six of nine seats are in some doubt as next Tuesday's primary approaches. Part of the reason: Arizona's power struggle over a new Congressional map was one for the redistricting record books. Some bipartisan redistricting commissions, like Washington…

Note to Subscribers|August 20, 2012

We are pleased to announce the launch of the redesigned Cook Political Report. Over the past year we have listened to our users' feedback in order to develop a new website that not only be…

House Overview|By David Wasserman, August 20, 2012

House Editor David Wasserman writes: Despite Congress's record low popularity, 2012 won't set a record for incumbent defeats. But with candidate filing deadlines now passed in all 50 states, there wil…

Note to Subscribers|August 20, 2012

The new and improved cookpolitical.com now includes The Bottom Line.  This is our current take on every Senate, House and gubernatorial contest in 200 words or less.…

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, August 2, 2012

August has traditionally been a quiet month for most campaigns.  Candidates typically spent their time at state fairs, or on campaign swings through their states or congressional districts. …

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 28, 2012

The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows President Obama widening his lead over Mitt Romney among registered voters from 3 points in June to 6 points in July, 49 percent to 43 percent. Among a somewhat smaller group of voters in the dozen battleground states, Obama’s lead is 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent. But—and this is a very big but—among high-interest voters considered most likely…

House Overview|By David Wasserman, July 26, 2012

House Editor David Wasserman writes: With most primaries in the books, it's getting to be that point when dollars spent and cash on hand remaining start becoming more important than dollars raised. An…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the Team

January 20, 2017

The gen­er­al para­met­ers are already well known. In Novem­ber, Amer­ic­ans elec­ted a pres­id­ent who had no gov­ern­ment ex­per­i­ence of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy is­sues and had a pro­cliv­ity to shoot from the hip, say­ing whatever came to mind, work­ing off of in­stinct rather than ex­pert­ise. We have elec­ted out­siders be­fore, but they have been the gov­ernor...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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