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California House|By David Wasserman, April 19, 2012

House Editor David Wasserman writes: During the past decade, just one out of 265 elections for House in California produced a partisan turnover of a seat. An ultra-safe map helped generate above-average numbers of chairmanships and leadership posts in the delegation, even accounting for California's huge size. But what members saw as seniority, voters saw as entrenchment, and this year's citizen c…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 16, 2012

The pace of the exceedingly fragile economic recovery over the 204 days between now and the Nov. 6 election is a lot more important than anything that either President Obama or Mitt Romney says over the course of the campaign. How fast the economy grows—measured by change in gross domestic product, in the unemployment rate, and in real personal disposable income, as well as in oil and gasoline pri…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 12, 2012

Presidential elections have a lot of moving parts. They rarely turn on any single factor or issue. Take, for example, the tensions over Tehran’s nuclear aspirations and the possibility of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by either Israel or the United States. In five minutes, the tone and direction of this election could completely change. But of the “known unknowables,” as former Defense S…

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, April 12, 2012

With the primary season about to begin in earnest and with the general election less than seven months away, it is a good time to step back and assess the bigger picture of the battle for the Senate m…

California House|By David Wasserman, April 12, 2012

House Editor David Wasserman writes: During the past decade, just one out of 265 elections for House in California produced a partisan turnover of a seat. An ultra-safe map helped generate above-average numbers of chairmanships and leadership posts in the delegation, even accounting for California's huge size. But what members saw as seniority, voters saw as entrenchment, and this year's citizen c…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 10, 2012

With the election less than seven months away one outcome is likely: whichever party ends up controlling the House will have a smaller majority than the 242-193 one Republicans enjoy now (just under 56 percent); and the Senate's will be closer than Democrats' 53-47. In the House, it looks highly doubtful that Democrats will score the 25-seat net gain necessary to capture a majority. But a net gai…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 5, 2012

Rick Santorum has every right to continue his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, just as Edward Kennedy did when he carried his fight against President Carter to the Democratic convention in 1980, and just as Hillary Rodham Clinton did through the last of the primaries four years ago. But Santorum’s right to persevere doesn’t preclude our right to say, “Put a fork in it; this thing is…

Redistricting 2012|By David Wasserman, April 5, 2012

House Editor David Wasserman writes: Now that most of the dust has settled from redistricting - save for fairly predictable new lines in Kansas and New Hampshire and an unpredictable lawsuit in Florida - it's time to take stock of the cycle's winners and losers. The Cook Political Report's redistricting scorecard estimates that if the GOP-passed Florida map stays in effect, Republicans will have m…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 29, 2012

When you look back at Barack Obama’s 7-point victory over John McCain in 2008, think of a four-legged stool. Obama needed each leg to support his candidacy. One leg was independent voters (29 percent of the vote); they chose Obama over McCain by 8 percentage points, 52 percent to 44 percent. The second leg was young voters, ages 18-29 (18 percent of vote); they broke for Obama by 34 percentage poi…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Presidency Headed in the Wrong Direction

March 28, 2017

Nobody knows where this nas­cent Don­ald Trump pres­id­ency is go­ing. New ad­min­is­tra­tions start off with an in­fin­ite num­ber of po­ten­tial tra­ject­or­ies, but this one is even more un­pre­dict­able than oth­ers. Trump could still turn out to be a suc­cess­ful pres­id­ent. As an Amer­ic­an, I cer­tainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thou­sand cuts.”

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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