Unless pollsters are all accidentally calling voters in other state, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is headed toward a fairly big victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday.…
Iowa culled the unwieldy herd of Republican presidential contenders but raised some new questions about what will happen next. To use the NCAA basketball tournament analogy, third-place finisher Ron Paul advances to the next round as winner of his own libertarian/isolationist bracket. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania wins the more conservative bracket, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt…
The Gallup national tracking poll and various public and private polls conducted in Iowa indicate that the bloom is coming off former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s rose, just as it did for Rep. Michele Bachmann, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain before him. The most ideological two-thirds of the Republican Party desperately want a hard-charging, take-no-prisoners…
House Editor David Wasserman writes: At press time, New Jersey’s bipartisan Congressional redistricting commission is in the final negotiating stages of a map that would pair Democratic Rep. Steve Rothman and Republican Rep. Scott Garrett in the northeastern corner of the state. Which one of them holds the upper hand, of course, depends on the final contours of the map. But Democrats should be giv…
House Editor David Wasserman looks ahead to the new year: Voters' disdain for Congress is as understandable as it is well-documented. Hyper-partisan logjams over the budget, debt ceiling, and now the payroll tax cut make us wonder who the 11 percent of Americans who approve of Congress in this week's Gallup poll actually are - and whether they are living on newly discovered planets. Not shockingly…
A little less than 11 months from now, Americans will decide whether to renew President Obama’s contract for another four years. Unless an event or a set of circumstances suddenly makes national security the focus, the outcome will ride on the economy and whether a majority of Americans possess sufficient hope that the state of the nation is changing for the better. Or, more accurately, whether th…
Although it won't win any awards for aesthetics, Pennsylvania's all-but-certain-to-pass new Congressional map is the perfect example of Republicans' approach to 2012 redistricting: after winning a big delegation majority in 2010, safeguarding vulnerable incumbents is the name of the game. Freshman GOP Rep. Lou Barletta is the biggest winner, as his district gets ten points more Republican and move…
Last time I checked, the final Republican presidential primaries were scheduled for June. In fact, my favorite resource for primary and caucus dates, Frontloading HQ, shows California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and North Dakota all slated for June 5. Ohio and Utah are scheduled for June 12 and 26, respectively. (Many think that Ohio date may end up sooner.) But in this new over-caffeinated…
The national and state polls are pretty clear: Newt Gingrich has moved into the top position for the Republican presidential nomination. Other candidates have surged in the past several months, first Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, then Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and, more recently, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain. But over the past week or so, even some Republican operatives who do not s…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the TeamJanuary 20, 2017
The general parameters are already well known. In November, Americans elected a president who had no government experience of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy issues and had a proclivity to shoot from the hip, saying whatever came to mind, working off of instinct rather than expertise. We have elected outsiders before, but they have been the governor...Read more »
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