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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 10, 2012

Unless pollsters are all accidentally calling voters in other state, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is headed toward a fairly big victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday.…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 5, 2012

Iowa culled the unwieldy herd of Republican presidential contenders but raised some new questions about what will happen next. To use the NCAA basketball tournament analogy, third-place finisher Ron Paul advances to the next round as winner of his own libertarian/isolationist bracket. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania wins the more conservative bracket, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 5, 2012

The Gallup national tracking poll and various public and private polls conducted in Iowa indicate that the bloom is coming off former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s rose, just as it did for Rep. Michele Bachmann, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain before him. The most ideological two-thirds of the Republican Party desperately want a hard-charging, take-no-prisoners…

New Jersey House|By David Wasserman, December 22, 2011

House Editor David Wasserman writes: At press time, New Jersey’s bipartisan Congressional redistricting commission is in the final negotiating stages of a map that would pair Democratic Rep. Steve Rothman and Republican Rep. Scott Garrett in the northeastern corner of the state. Which one of them holds the upper hand, of course, depends on the final contours of the map. But Democrats should be giv…

House Overview|By David Wasserman, December 22, 2011

House Editor David Wasserman looks ahead to the new year: Voters' disdain for Congress is as understandable as it is well-documented. Hyper-partisan logjams over the budget, debt ceiling, and now the payroll tax cut make us wonder who the 11 percent of Americans who approve of Congress in this week's Gallup poll actually are - and whether they are living on newly discovered planets. Not shockingly…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, December 15, 2011

A little less than 11 months from now, Americans will decide whether to renew President Obama’s contract for another four years. Unless an event or a set of circumstances suddenly makes national security the focus, the outcome will ride on the economy and whether a majority of Americans possess sufficient hope that the state of the nation is changing for the better. Or, more accurately, whether th…

Redistricting 2012|By David Wasserman, December 15, 2011

Although it won't win any awards for aesthetics, Pennsylvania's all-but-certain-to-pass new Congressional map is the perfect example of Republicans' approach to 2012 redistricting: after winning a big delegation majority in 2010, safeguarding vulnerable incumbents is the name of the game. Freshman GOP Rep. Lou Barletta is the biggest winner, as his district gets ten points more Republican and move…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, December 12, 2011

Last time I checked, the final Republican presidential primaries were scheduled for June. In fact, my favorite resource for primary and caucus dates, Frontloading HQ, shows California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and North Dakota all slated for June 5. Ohio and Utah are scheduled for June 12 and 26, respectively. (Many think that Ohio date may end up sooner.) But in this new over-caffeinated…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, December 8, 2011

The national and state polls are pretty clear: Newt Gingrich has moved into the top position for the Republican presidential nomination. Other candidates have surged in the past several months, first Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, then Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and, more recently, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain. But over the past week or so, even some Republican operatives who do not s…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the Team

January 20, 2017

The gen­er­al para­met­ers are already well known. In Novem­ber, Amer­ic­ans elec­ted a pres­id­ent who had no gov­ern­ment ex­per­i­ence of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy is­sues and had a pro­cliv­ity to shoot from the hip, say­ing whatever came to mind, work­ing off of in­stinct rather than ex­pert­ise. We have elec­ted out­siders be­fore, but they have been the gov­ernor...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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