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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 8, 2012

Republicans, who only weeks ago could not imagine how President Obama could be reelected, sure are trying hard to make it happen. Through 11 primaries and caucuses going into Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney had accumulated more delegates than Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul combined. Again on Tuesday night, among the 10 states voting or holding caucuses, Romney won more delegates than the ot…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 5, 2012

The results of the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on Monday confirm previous survey data that show the Republican Party has suffered brand damage over the past few months. The GOP’s self-absorption and obsession with pleasing its conservative base in presidential candidates’ rhetoric and in policy initiatives at the congressional, gubernatorial, and state legislative levels have taken…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 1, 2012

Republican strategists and the GOP establishment weren’t breathing that much easier on Wednesday, the day after Mitt Romney’s presidential primary victories in Arizona and Michigan, than they had been the day before. But at least they were breathing. Many had been holding their breath after Rick Santorum’s wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri on Feb. 7. (Of course, holding your breath might b…

Rhode Island House|By David Wasserman, March 1, 2012

House Editor David Wasserman writes: A Republican hasn't won a House seat in the Ocean State since 1992. But 20 years later, Democratic Rep. David Cicilline's unpopularity has seriously jeopardized his party's chances of holding onto what should be a very safe seat. Early last year, in the months after the former Providence Mayor was sworn into the House, news that Cicilline had presided over ramp…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 27, 2012

Polls these days show an unusually large degree of volatility. In the nine most recent polls covered by RealClearPolitics.com , President Obama’s job approval ratings have ranged from 44 percent to 53 percent, the highest any national poll has shown since last May, soon after Osama bin Laden was killed. In general, in election matchups between Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 24, 2012

It’s misleading to say that the state of the economy determines whether a president will win reelection. But it is fair to say that when a White House incumbent is running for a second term, the election is first and foremost a referendum on that president; the single most important factor that voters consider in assessing a president is the state and direction of the economy. That is the default…

Minnesota House|By David Wasserman, February 23, 2012

Ten years ago, judges shook up the state's Congressional politics by totally rearranging three suburban Twin Cities districts. This year, after Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton and the legislature couldn't agree on a map, court-appointed special masters produced much less drama and put forward a "least-changes" plan. Although GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann's home wasn't drawn into the new 6th CD, she actual…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 16, 2012

The current spike in gasoline prices and the flap over the Obama administration’s proposed requirement that religiously affiliated institutions provide their employees health insurance covering contraception are useful reminders that economics and politics are both dynamic, not static. It’s always risky to project that the status quo will hold, particularly when an election is more than eight mont…

Ohio House|By David Wasserman, February 16, 2012

House Editor David Wasserman writes: As the old saying goes, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. When it was clear that Democrats' petition drive to overturn Ohio's GOP-drawn map would fall short of expectations, Democrats in Columbus cut a deal to pass a revised map that would preserve the state's March 6 primary. Republicans hope the map will give them a 12-4 seat edge, down from a 13-5 lead since…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Trump’s Fine-Tuned Machine Runs Like an Oil-Burning Jalopy

February 21, 2017

As a can­did­ate, Don­ald Trump thor­oughly en­joyed dis­mant­ling and tor­tur­ing the Re­pub­lic­an wing of the Re­pub­lic­an Party. But now that chaos, tur­moil, and in­eptitude have be­come the watch­words for his White House—not­with­stand­ing his as­ser­tion Thursday that it “is run­ning like a fine-tuned ma­chine”—the tar­gets of his barbs were giv­ing each oth­er “I told you so”...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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