Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn waited nearly a month after legislative approval before inking his party's breathtaking remap into law last week, but the damage to Republicans was already done. Democrats took a sledgehammer to the current map, drawing five of 11 GOP incumbents into districts with other members and seriously threatening two others. Overall, Democrats should reap a bonanza of four or five…
The latest Democracy Corps national survey, conducted by the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, has numbers that should worry both Democrats and Republicans. The survey, conducted June 18-21 among 1,000 likely 2012 voters (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent) showed that those respondents were pessimistic about the direction of the country and disapproved of…
Now that former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has announced his candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination, the biggest question remaining is whether Texas Gov. Rick Perry will jump into the race. If former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin opted in, watching her and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota tangle would be worth the price of admission. That bout is unlikely to materialize, but a Perry-Bachmann fight…
With GOP Gov. Robert Bentley’s signature in early June, Alabama became the eighth state to pass new Congressional boundaries for 2012. This is the first time Republicans have ever held redistricting power in Alabama, but there was hardly a sea change: after all, Republicans now hold all but one of the state’s House seats, and their only bold move was to add more African-American voters to the 7th…
It’s hard to hear a conversation about the 2012 presidential election and not hear either a Democrat gloating about the weakness of the GOP field or a Republican lamenting the lack of a strong candidate. True or not, this focus on personalities drives me crazy because it ignores that incumbent reelections are more referenda on the current president rather than contests for president of the high s…
These days, it’s painful talking to longtime friends and admirers of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The overwhelming view is that they hate to see what is happening to the Georgia Republican, yet all knew that his campaign would end up a train wreck. Whether one likes or agrees with Gingrich (I like him but don’t necessarily agree with him that much), he clearly is one of the brightest, mos…
Hardly a day goes by that a prominent Democratic member of Congress doesn’t criticize Republicans on Medicare. From Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on down, Democrats are attacking House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan and other congressional Republicans for trying to “end Medicare as we know it.” Obviously, Democrats aren’t doing it on a whim. Many in…
While I generally loathe press releases, I have to admit that one caught my eye on Monday morning. The e-mail release from the Republican National Committee simply said, “They Own It.” As I expected, “They” referred to President Obama and Democrats, and “It” referred to the economy. Within the first six months or even a year of a new administration, it’s fair game to blame predecessors for any pr…
With GOP Gov. Dave Heineman’s signature in late May, Nebraska became the seventh state to pass new Congressional boundaries in 2012. And while the Cornhusker State sends just three representatives to Congress, the shape of its Congressional boundaries can generate strong feelings if only because it is one of just two states where Electoral College votes are apportioned by Congressional district. T…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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