For a few weeks, there was genuine concern among Republicans that infighting over whether to anchor the state's new 7th CD in Beaufort or Myrtle Beach would throw the issue to courts and leave the GOP's advantage in doubt. But on the first day of August, GOP Gov. Nikki Haley signed into law a new Congressional map creating a new Myrtle Beach-based 7th CD and shoring up the rest of the GOP delegati…
It certainly wasn’t just me; a lot of analysts got some push-back for being so definitively sure that the 2012 Republican presidential nominee wouldn’t be former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain. As Cain surged in the polls, with many conservatives loving both his message and delivery, many people wondered how we could be so dismissive. Political analysis or punditry (although I hate the term) h…
With the 2012 presidential general election just a year away, it’s a good time to look at the national polling and talk about the state of play. Obviously, we have to make allowances for changing circumstances and unexpected events. The best barometer of how a president is going to fare is his approval rating, which starts taking on predictive value about a year out. As each month goes by, the ra…
At first glance, the fight for the House would appear competitive: Democrats need 25 seats to recapture the majority, not quite half of what Republicans gained last fall and not quite half the number of Republicans representing districts carried by Obama in 2008. In September, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee, whose donors se…
Although plenty of political and economic diagnostic indicators are signaling danger for President Obama, this election season still doesn’t have a dominant direction. During the 2006, 2008, and 2010 cycles, the question was how many seats would the victorious party pick up, not which one the political tides would benefit most. But so far for 2012, the weather vanes are just spinning. A new surve…
One of the occupational hazards of being a political analyst is the tendency to become too dependent on the reams of polling data and economic numbers that come out every week. So it’s refreshing to get a chance to observe focus groups and listen to Americans talking plainly about their lives, beliefs, and concerns, about politics and their leaders—and to watch their emotions, facial expressions,…
House Editor David Wasserman writes: While most Ohio residents are glued to the tragic end of one man's exotic animal zoo, a very different mess has the state's GOP legislators flummoxed. Last week, in somewhat of a surprise ruling, the Ohio Supreme Court held that the Congressional redistricting plan recently signed by GOP Gov. John Kasich is indeed subject to the state's petition and referendum…
There were still eight Republican presidential contenders on the Dartmouth College stage on Tuesday night, but this contest has clarified a great deal in recent weeks. Looking at national and state poll standings, fundraising, endorsements by key leaders, and campaign organization, it’s pretty clear that Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, Rep. Ron P…
House Editor David Wasserman writes: While most pundits focused on Wisconsin's state senate recall elections in August, GOP Gov. Scott Walker quietly signed into law his party's redistricting plans. The new map, which the legislature conveniently passed before Democrats had a shot at taking the Senate in the recall, will have a much more meaningful and long-lasting effect on the state's politics.…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Two Special Elections Add Suspense to MidtermsApril 25, 2017
Two congressional special elections in as many weeks make clear that while the Republican Party is not in a free fall, things are not copacetic, either. Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes won last week’s special election in Kansas’s 4th District to fill the vacancy created by Mike Pompeo’s nomination to head the CIA, but his 5-point victory was far short of the...Read more »
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