Mitt Romney’s impressive 14-point victory in the Florida primary gave the GOP frontrunner more votes than Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum combined. After an exciting detour, this nomination race seems back on the track that analysts anticipated several months ago. With no debates and no high-profile caucuses or primaries in the next three weeks, Romney’s rivals are in a room with little oxygen and…
Unless the polling over the last few days in Florida is completely wrong, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has turned back former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s second resurgence. Republican officeholders can now step back off the ledge. When they heard Democratic pollster Peter Hart telling NBC News that a Gingrich nomination might trigger another 1964 Goldwater debacle, it was enough to send…
The Oxford English Dictionary defines “whirlpool” as “a quickly rotating mass of water in a river or sea into which objects may be drawn, typically caused by the meeting of conflicting currents.” It is also “a turbulent situation from which it is hard to escape.” After three straight wave elections in 2006, 2008, and 2010, strong crosscurrents might be an appropriate way to think about this year’s…
House Editor David Wasserman takes a look at Democrats' newly rolled out list of 36 initial target districts, promoted to donors and press as "Red to Blue." At the outset of the election year, Democra…
As President Obama strides to the podium in the House chamber on Tuesday night, he might have a bit more spring in his step than a few weeks ago. The question on his mind, though, is the same as many others have: “What in the hell is going on in the Republican Party?” Rep. Michele Bachmann wins the Iowa Republican straw poll in August. Now we find out that former Sen. Rick Santorum actually won t…
The ABC News/Washington Post and CNN/Opinion Research national polls released this week that show Congress’s job-approval rating dropping to record low levels are barely creating a ripple—because the news is not new. With the exception of the immediate aftermath of extraordinary events like 9/11, the public routinely holds Congress in, as they say, “minimum high regard.” But now, the new norm is r…
The Republican presidential race has turned out to be a series of tag-team matches. Different candidates mount challenges to Mitt Romney in different states. This may delay the inevitability of the former Massachusetts governor finally securing the nomination, but these challenges really don’t affect the end of the game. Romney’s rivals will find it increasingly difficult to persuade past and pro…
In early September, GOP Gov. Nathan Deal took pleasure in signing a map that creates a new heavily conservative district in his home base of North Georgia. GOP state Rep. Doug Collins and conservative talk radio host Martha Zoller will be competing for this new 9th CD (GOP Rep. Tom Graves will run for the renumbered northwest Georgia 14th CD). The new map also seriously shores up GOP freshman Rep.…
Unless pollsters are all accidentally calling voters in other state, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is headed toward a fairly big victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday.…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under TrumpJune 23, 2017
For congressional Republicans in the new norm of the Trump presidency, nothing is easy, and everything is hard. Raising the debt ceiling in order to keep the government from defaulting on its debt is normally easy; now it is hard. Passing an omnibus budget bill to simply keep the government operating (forget the idea of passing the full battery of 12 appropriations...Read more »
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