The October Landscape: Race by Race In October 2006, the “last minute surprise” races were typically Democratic-leaning seats where personally popular moderate Republicans were washed away by the national wave. Think of GOP veterans like Reps. Nancy Johnson (CT-05), Jim Leach (IA-02), Anne Northup (KY-03), Jeb Bradley (NH-01), and Sue Kelly (NY-19), all of whom had won convincing victories in 200…
A little over nine months ago I was sitting down with a prominent Democratic pollster, talking about all that had transpired over 2009 and looking ahead to the midterm election. The experienced campaign strategist was very pessimistic. There was little he had seen that he had liked over the past year, and his hunch was that this was going to be a very ugly midterm election for his party. I asked…
A certain ebb and flow marks every campaign year. In 2010, as everyone knows, most of the flow has been in the Republican Party's direction. But if a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is correct, the tide may have ebbed a bit. The survey shows the two parties still tied at 44 percent on the generic congressional ballot test among all registered voters, just as they were knotted at 43 percent…
For quite a while, Democrats have waited and desperately hoped that the trajectory of this election campaign would change. They are still waiting and hoping. While things could change in the next 35 days, they haven't yet, and every day, the magnitude of events necessary to change the course of this election has to be greater than the day before. It seems extremely likely that the GOP will regai…
A well-known Democratic strategist commented to me the other day, "We have a hurricane coming right at us. We know it's not going to veer to the left or right; it's coming straight at us. It could end up being a Category 3, 4, or 5, but right now it's a 5." In my mind, a Category 3 storm would mean that the Democrats would suffer significant losses in the House and Senate but maintain majorities…
From time to time, someone comes up with a catchy term for some subgroup of swing voters. President Nixon targeted the Silent Majority. Later there were Reagan Democrats. More recently, Soccer Moms became a household term. Some of the terms were less meaningful. One pollster pushed NASCAR Dads. This made me laugh, because to me, rural or exurban, Southern, Southwest or Midwest, working- and lower…
In late October 2006, almost three months after this column projected that the GOP would likely lose the House and stood a 50-50 chance of losing the Senate, I upped my estimate of the total number of House seats that Republicans would drop. This prompted a prominent conservative blogger to write that I had "jumped the shark." Not being particularly hip on pop culture terms, I naturally consulted…
We are excited that Cook Political Report subscribers will now also be able to access The Rhodes Cook Letter, which tracks election results for Congressional, Gubernatorial and Presidential races. Pu…
Now that all but the Hawaii primary are history, the fall nominees are set and both parties can train their focus on a November election that looks every bit as chaotic as primary season. With well over 100 seats at least potentially competitive, both the DCCC and NRCC will struggle to navigate a turbulent sea of races tossing in this anti-Democratic storm. Yet if the Senate primary season went ou…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
GOP Faces Trump Effect in 2018February 17, 2017
Many congressional Republicans who had town meetings over the last week or two have gotten an earful from constituents upset over the proposed repeal of the Affordable Care Act or President Trump’s immigration enforcement or both. Some of these highly unpleasant scenes don’t look too different from what congressional Democrats encountered back in 2009 and 2013, rocky years that preceded...Read more »
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