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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 18, 2010

When Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., was facing reelection in 1998, The Cook Political Report wrote that he was running an ineffectual campaign with horrible advertising. Not surprisingly, Reid’s aides let us know they didn’t appreciate the analysis and didn’t agree with it. As it turned out, Reid was elected to a third term by the narrowest of margins, beating his Republican challenger (and now Senate…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 15, 2010

The following is an address that you should hear from the Oval Office, but don’t hold your breath. My fellow Americans, for several generations we have been warned by a procession of business and governmental leaders that our country was on an unsustainable course. Quite simply for too long, the federal government has been spending too much, bringing in too little and making promises for Social S…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 11, 2010

The irony of midterm elections is that sometimes the smartest, best-organized party committees fall victim to the most devastating waves. That was true in 2006, when the National Republican Congressional Committee made a heroic but unsuccessful effort to defend the party’s majority under horrific conditions, and it is equally true of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this year. Unde…

Governor Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, November 11, 2010

The outcome of last week’s 37 gubernatorial contests produced a rare result. Once the votes were counted and the dust settled, both parties came away with some legitimate bragging rights. Even so, a look beneath the results reveals that there may be less than meets the eye in the outcome. In a variation on FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver’s theory that 2010 was an “alignment election” in the H…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 9, 2010

Whenever I’m asked what the biggest surprise was for me in this election, I confess that there were several, but not many occurred on election night. I was stunned by Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s GOP primary loss, something I did not see coming. Further, one might have thought that a campaign that was completely unaware of danger during a primary challenge would not be able to turn on a dime to p…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 5, 2010

In a matter of hours, the votes -- at least most of them -- will be counted, and we will know what happened. Some candidates will be rejoicing in the results but soon will be bracing themselves for the responsibility of governing; others will find themselves drained and disappointed, their influence diminished or gone. My sense is that in the House we will see an outcome that is the closest thing…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 4, 2010

This election was an odd mix. On the House side, it was a nationalized, parliamentary election where the party affiliation of candidates was all-important. In the Senate and gubernatorial races, where Republican gains were not of the same magnitude as in the House, party affiliation was also important but so too were the personalities and records of individual candidates. Republicans should tread…

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, November 3, 2010

This election cycle has taken a very strange path for both Senate Democrats and Republicans. When the cycle started two years ago this week, it appeared that Democrats might be in a position to gain seats. But, as the political universe is prone to do, it handed both parties a series of surprises. Retirements, Senate appointments, the deaths of Sens. Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts and Robert Byrd…

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, November 1, 2010

For all the strange twists and turns this election cycle has taken, it seems almost hard to believe that Election Day is tomorrow. Whether they voted early, cast an absentee ballot or mailed one in, voters in 37 states will elect Senators tomorrow. Democrats are defending 19 seats to 18 for Republicans. There are 15 open seats; seven held by Democrats and eight held by Republicans. At this poi…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – The New York Times
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    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Presidency Headed in the Wrong Direction

March 28, 2017

Nobody knows where this nas­cent Don­ald Trump pres­id­ency is go­ing. New ad­min­is­tra­tions start off with an in­fin­ite num­ber of po­ten­tial tra­ject­or­ies, but this one is even more un­pre­dict­able than oth­ers. Trump could still turn out to be a suc­cess­ful pres­id­ent. As an Amer­ic­an, I cer­tainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thou­sand cuts.”

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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