Ratings Changes AR-02 OPEN (Snyder) Lean R to Likely R FL-25 OPEN (Diaz-Balart) Likely R to Lean R NY-29 VACANT (Massa) Lean R to Likely R The Open Seat Landscape Before the big wave of 1994 crashed ashore, a wave of retirements created 31 Democratic open seats, 25 of which were in competitive districts. Republ…
One of the fascinating things about wave elections is that the party in power often has raised significantly more money nationally, district by district and state by state; it may have invested in strong field organization efforts; it may have done everything in its power to insulate itself from a hostile political environment; and in many cases, it's to little or no avail. We saw that in 2006 for…
Just three months away from the midterm elections, in a cycle marred by anemic economic growth and high unemployment, any political party holding the White House and 59 percent majorities in the House and Senate would have plenty to worry about. But beyond the fragile state of the economy, the expected 1 million foreclosures this year, and dispiriting job numbers, something more basic is striking…
It appears that the signs of a possible Democratic rebound were just a false alarm. After almost a year of unrelentingly bad poll numbers, back-to-back weeks of Gallup Polls showing Democrats with eyebrow-raising leads might have just been statistical flukes. For the weeks of July 12-18 and July 19-25, the Gallup Organization's weekly aggregation of daily tracking polls showed Democrats ahead amo…
Holding a majority of the nation's governorships usually doesn't entitle a political party to much more than bragging rights. It's simply one more number in an equation that helps demonstrate a party's dominance or, conversely, its weakness. As with most rules in politics, however, there is an exception. For governors, that exception comes once a decade, when the outcome of the gubernatorial race…
Very few people watch political polls more closely than I do. (Whether that's a good thing or suggests that I'm slightly neurotic is up for debate.) When you monitor surveys incessantly, you occasionally see results that you're unsure how to interpret. You don't know whether they signal a key turning point in public opinion or whether they're just a hiccup, a passing blip. Or perhaps the odd resul…
This week, Democrats bought TV time in 60 districts, all but a handful of them Democratic-held seats. And there is no doubt that the DCCC will use every tool available, including hard-hitting ads and running far to the right of Democratic leadership where necessary, to defend its majority. But the preponderance of race-by-race and national empirical evidence suggests Republicans are on track to pi…
Democratic strategists see a path to retaining their House majority. To do so, they are aiming to pick off four seats held by Republicans, two open and two held by incumbents; then hold onto at least eight of their most endangered 16 open seats; and keep their incumbent losses down to less than 35 -- two-thirds of the Democratic incumbents in competitive districts, or just over 40 percent of the…
This column has repeatedly -- some would say relentlessly -- argued since late last summer that Democrats are in real danger of losing their House majority in November. So it's only fair to analyze why top Democratic strategists, in an admittedly bad year for their party, think they still have a good chance to retain their hold on the chamber, albeit with greatly reduced numbers. First, they figu…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the TeamJanuary 20, 2017
The general parameters are already well known. In November, Americans elected a president who had no government experience of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy issues and had a proclivity to shoot from the hip, saying whatever came to mind, working off of instinct rather than expertise. We have elected outsiders before, but they have been the governor...Read more »
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