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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 11, 2011

The media’s recent coverage of the potential government shutdown over the past few weeks has been genuinely overcaffeinated. The truth is that if a deal had not been reached last weekend, we would have seen something more like a government slowdown. Over the years, the impact of these periodic but unfortunate incidents—the federal government has shut down five times in the past 25 years—has been…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 7, 2011

One of the biggest and most frequent mistakes in politics is for a party to misread its mandate. When it happens, independent and swing voters get angry and punish a candidate or a party on Election Day. Because American politics is a zero-sum game, punishing one party means rewarding the other party—even when the latter is not necessarily deserving of support. Frequently, the party that benefits…

Redistricting 2012|By David Wasserman, April 7, 2011

On March 1, 2006, one day after considering the late Anna Nicole Smith's final appeal to win a share of her deceased husband's vast estate, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the case of LULAC v. Perry - the Texas redistricting case that ultimately upheld the GOP's controversial mid-decade gerrymander. The irony of this case coupling was not lost on Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank, w…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 4, 2011

Until recently, Republicans were taking solace in a number of things as they looked forward to 2012. For one, Republicans knew that the party not holding the White House rarely suffered large House and Senate losses in presidential reelection years. In fact, the only time that has happened in recent history was to Republicans in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson won the White House a year after the assass…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 31, 2011

BRUSSELS—One can certainly understand why Europeans are further along in the conversation about governments’ mounting debt loads than Americans are. Sovereign-debt crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal (with several other countries not far behind) have dominated the news in Europe for more than a year. In the United States, we are used to deficit scolds holding forth on the op-ed pages and on t…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 28, 2011

It’s always interesting to watch the disconnect between conversations on the Sunday morning public-affairs programs and the nightly cable-news talk shows with journalists and politicians and activists getting worked into a frenzy over an issue or event that the public doesn’t have strong feelings about. Sometimes, the elites may be ahead of the conversation and public opinion will follow. At oth…

Redistricting 2012|By David Wasserman, March 25, 2011

The Cook Political Report has launched its 2012 Redistricting Scorecard page, where you can keep score of the number of seats each state will draw, who will draw them, each district’s ideal population, and the number of seats we estimate each party will gain or lose in each state due to redistricting alone. The page also features links to each state’s detailed redistricting preview, complete with…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 24, 2011

Tim Pawlenty’s announcement that he is setting up a 2012 presidential campaign exploratory committee makes the former Minnesota governor the first major GOP contender to take the big step, although others will undoubtedly follow over the next several months. Haley Barbour, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich appear virtually certain to run and will signal as much before too long, although Romney is un…

Redistricting 2012|By David Wasserman, March 24, 2011

What happens when politicians who have grown accustomed to the luxury of choosing their voters are forced to cede redistricting authority to a group of amateur citizen commissioners? Terrified incumbents are about to find out.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Week That Could Revive Trump

May 25, 2017

Last week, it was the role of Rus­sia in the 2016 cam­paign that dom­in­ated the news; this week, with Pres­id­ent Trump on his first over­seas trip and largely stick­ing to his script, it’s more likely to be the sub­stant­ive chal­lenges fa­cing con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans that will move to cen­ter stage in Wash­ing­ton.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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