Senate Republicans have endured two devastating election cycles, losing six seats in 2006 and eight seats in 2008. When Republican-turned-Democrat Sen. Arlen Specter is included, the GOP has lost a total of 15 seats over four years. During the first quarter of this year, it appeared that Republicans would face a third cycle of painful losses. Of the 36 races on tap next year, Republicans will d…
It's a shame that with the thousands of statistics released every week from Washington, there aren't any called "CPBP" or "CPHR," short for "Collective Partisan Blood Pressure" and "Collective Partisan Heart Rate." Last week would undoubtedly show dramatic increases for each side, with Democratic blood pressures and Republican heart rates significantly up. Many Democrats getting back to Washingt…
Among the multitude of tough decisions that President Obama and his administration will face in the next few months is whether to send a second economic stimulus package to Capitol Hill. Just over a month ago, there were plenty of "green shoots," hopeful signs that the recession might soon be ending. Increasingly, top economists were predicting positive economic growth in the fourth quarter of th…
In interviewing congressional candidates, a common question that we at The Cook Political Report ask is, "What's one issue or vote on which you would differ from your party's leadership?" In this era of extremely polarized districts and elections, the ability to show distance from the pack and rise above the rubber-stamp label seems to really impress independent voters and often makes the differen…
The bad thing about being awash in a flood of polling data is that the survey results don't always agree. Just as I begin to settle on one conclusion, new figures appear to support a different one. The plethora of new polls initially appeared to indicate that President Obama's job-approval ratings were starting to take their first -- some would say inevitable -- dip. An NBC News/Wall Street Journ…
IN Senate: Baseline Analysis Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh has at least 11,443,338 reasons not to sweat his bid for a third term. And that is not just a random number, but the cash-on-hand total he reported having in the bank as of March 31 and one that is certain to become larger by the end of the second quarter on June 30. Bayh, the son of a former Senator, launched his political career at the…
A recurring theme in last week's political news, particularly on cable, was that President Obama's job ratings had dipped. The coverage initially played off an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 12-15 among 1,008 adults -- with a 3-point error margin -- indicating that his job approval numbers had dropped to 56 percent, from 61 percent in April, with his disapproval up to 34 percent…
Whether or not one agrees with President Obama and congressional Democrats on the massive restructuring of the financial and automobile sectors, their historic efforts at health care reform or plans for climate change legislation, the barrage of proposals is breathtaking. It also invites one to think about the context of all of this change. Looking back to this time last year, Sens. John McCain a…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Trump’s Policies Are a Result of On-the-Job TrainingApril 20, 2017
The media and critics on the Left are having a field day attacking President Trump’s rather numerous and often dramatic changes of heart on policy—whether China manipulates its currency, the necessity of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and NATO, and the U.S.’s strategic posture in Syria.Read more »
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »