Despite President Obama's historic election, the hoopla around his victory obscures significant elements of his election and message. When Obama first began running for president, many observers reaso…
The poll numbers tell the story. President Obama's job-approval ratings soared after his impressive February 24 speech to a joint session of Congress, which drew praise from virtually all but his most partisan and vociferous critics. The first polling by the Gallup Organization conducted after the president's speech pegged his approval rating at 67 percent, up from 59 percent and just 2 points sh…
Whether or not you believe President Obama's approval ratings are inextricably tied to the post-stimulus performance of the economy, you can bet voter attitudes concerning the new president will have a strong influence on congressional election fortunes next year. The $64,000 question is, just what kind of influence will it be? Of course, the answer is unknowable this early in the campaign season…
My guess is that I was not alone when I cringed late last month upon opening my 401(k) retirement plan statement for the previous quarter, nor when I winced this week as the stock market plummeted to a 12-year low. At least health club stocks should be surging. After all, a lot of us need to develop healthier habits: With our retirement savings just a fraction of what they were a year ago, we will…
It isn't hard to understand why so many Democrats, liberals and even some independents and moderates get up in arms over Rush Limbaugh's incendiary comments, the most recent being his remarks that he hoped President Obama would fail. But many of those folks then take the next, seemingly logical, step and suggest that the Republican Party is making a mistake in allowing Limbaugh to become the effe…
Check out the results from the latest Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll conducted February 27 - March 1, 2009 of 1,000 American adults including 880 registered voters. In the poll, 57 percent of registered voters approved of the job President Barack Obama is doing after a month in office, 28 percent disapproved. The top line and crosstabs are available at www.cookpolitical.com/poll.
If the prospects that Republicans can take back majorities in Congress this cycle sit somewhere between slim and none, then the 2009/2010 Governors races offer the party a silver lining. Of the 38 races up this cycle (two in 2009 and 36 in 2010), Republicans will defend 17 seats to 21 for Democrats. Ten of those Democratic seats are open because of term limits, and six are already in grave dange…
Monday's report by the Gallup Organization regarding how the public perceives President Obama's performance after one month in office says much about the state of American politics. Obama started out with 68 percent job approval, one of the highest initial approval ratings for a new president since Gallup started taking the measurement under Dwight Eisenhower in 1953. Since then, Obama's approval…
The relentlessly bad economic news in recent days raises an important political question: How long does former President Bush keep ownership of this recession? At this stage, voters have no doubt that the recession started on his watch. Yet plenty of blame deserves to be laid at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, and that blame extends to administrations of both parties, not to mention government-…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Trump’s Fine-Tuned Machine Runs Like an Oil-Burning JalopyFebruary 21, 2017
As a candidate, Donald Trump thoroughly enjoyed dismantling and torturing the Republican wing of the Republican Party. But now that chaos, turmoil, and ineptitude have become the watchwords for his White House—notwithstanding his assertion Thursday that it “is running like a fine-tuned machine”—the targets of his barbs were giving each other “I told you so”...Read more »
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