While all the focus last week centered on the passing of President Obama's first 100 days in office, this week marks six months since the 2008 election. So half a year past a second-consecutive devastating election for Republicans -- in which they went further in the hole in the House and Senate and lost the presidency -- are they any better off now? Are there any signs of a rebound? The short ans…
ALABAMA AL-02: Bobby Bright (D) – Southeastern corner: part of Montgomery Solid Republican. Bright is almost certainly the only person who could have allowed Democrats to add this heavily GOP seat to their tally on Election Night 2008, mostly because his background was perfectly suited to appeal to voters in all reaches of the district. But the deciding factor in Bright’s slim victory over GOP…
Written by Cook Political Report Senior Editor, Jennifer Duffy A confluence of appointed Democratic senators and the especially early announcements by a number of Republican incumbents that they will not seek re-election in 2010 has created the fastest start to a Senate election cycle since perhaps 1986. Candidates for these open seats and challengers to incumbents, including the appointees, hav…
Few economists are willing to venture that the economy has turned a critical corner or even that it has hit bottom, with growth coming soon. However, the proliferation of "green shoots," good economic news amid all the bad, is enough to persuade many economists that the bottom just might be in sight. The rate of economic decline appears to be slowing on many fronts, although not employment, which…
Congress might be coming back this week for a five-week legislative haul before the Memorial Day recess, but the political calendar works at a somewhat different pace. By necessity, Senate races tend to develop earlier in the election cycle, since these campaigns require substantially more money and are greater organizational challenges. As a result, party leaders tend to urge members contemplati…
As I wrote last week, for clues about what the political environment will be in November 2010, watch the economy, President Obama's job-approval ratings, and the generic congressional ballot test. The jury will be out on each of those factors for another year and a half, but new data hint at where they now stand. Although the economy continues to be in "one-step-forward, one-step-back" mode, it i…
To measure member voting behavior against district partisanship, we have compared members’ 2007 National Journal Vote Ratings (the most recent available) to the new Cook Political Report PVI scores of their districts for the 111th Congress. Because some members from 2007 no longer serve and there are no vote ratings for new members, data is only available for 366 members of Congress. In order to…
A senior Democratic strategist observed last week that at this stage in the 2006 and 2008 election cycles, he had some inkling that the political environment would be favorable for his party on Election Day. Today, though, he has no idea whether Democrats will be playing offense or defense in November 2010. Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the president and his party. And right now,…
Before voters went to the polls on Tuesday in New York's 20th Congressional District, there seemed to be compelling arguments in favor of either major party winning the race to fill the House seat formerly held by Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed to succeed Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Senate. Those arguments seemed to cancel each other out, so in my CongressDaily column on Tuesday…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Presidency Headed in the Wrong DirectionMarch 28, 2017
Nobody knows where this nascent Donald Trump presidency is going. New administrations start off with an infinite number of potential trajectories, but this one is even more unpredictable than others. Trump could still turn out to be a successful president. As an American, I certainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thousand cuts.”Read more »
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In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »