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National Politics|By Amy Walter, June 17, 2015

With his attempts to woo Democrats unsuccessful, President Obama turned to Republicans this week to help rescue his Asia trade hopes. Obama has succeeded in the first step, with the House voting to support Trade Promotion Authority for the President by a vote of 218 to 208. Just 28 Democrats supported the president.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 16, 2015

The Republican practice for determining a presidential nominee has long been to have a fight, then nominate whoever's turn it is to be the party's standard-bearer. It has been a relatively orderly, hierarchical process. And if Republicans behave accordingly next year, they will slug it out before nominating former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whose turn it would seem to be.

Virginia House|By David Wasserman, June 12, 2015

Last Friday, a three-judge federal panel reaffirmed an October ruling striking down Virginia's congressional map on the grounds that the African-American 3rd District amounts to an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The news is a potentially significant victory for Democrats, who are at an historic low-point in the House in part because GOP legislatures in the South have packed

Governors Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, June 12, 2015

Delaware: This race is in something of a holding pattern in the wake of former Democratic state Attorney General Beau Biden’s death in late May. Biden was an overwhelming frontrunner both for the Democratic nomination and in the general election to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Jack Markell. Other Democrats interested in the race are staying on the sidelines for now as Biden’s family...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 11, 2015

Hillary Clinton announced her presidential candidacy roughly eight weeks ago, and since then, a few things have become apparent.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, June 11, 2015

What makes Scott Walker such a formidable candidate in the primary is also what makes him vulnerable in a general election. As Walker flexes his conservative muscles on everything from immigration to gay marriage to abortion, he also risks being easily portrayed as 'out of touch' to the moderate voters needed to win this fall.

POLITICAL ADVERTISING|By Elizabeth Wilner, June 9, 2015

Here-today-gone-today social media app Snapchat just saw its first-ever political ad covered by the New York Times.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 9, 2015

Another political analyst and I recently decided just for fun to write down what percentage chance we would give the top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination. My colleague was bold, giving Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker a 35 percent chance of getting the nod, Sen. Marco Rubio a 30 percent chance, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush a 25 percent chance, and "someone else" a 10 percent...

Connecticut House |By David Wasserman, June 5, 2015

Democrats' dominance in Connecticut's House delegation was unchanged by the GOP wave of 2014. If there is still a "swing" seat in the state, it's the northwestern 5th CD held by sophomore Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty. In 2014, Republicans nominated a candidate who was way too conservative for the district, and held her to 53 percent. It's unlikely she will have a more difficult time in a...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.

  • The current House breakdown is 245 Republicans and 188 Democrats, with two vacancies. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, and if they win upcoming special elections in New York's 11th CD and Mississippi's 1st CD, they will win their largest number of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, winning the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-15 seat range.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 15 gubernatorial contests, including three races in 2015, and 12 in 2016, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending nine seats to six for Republicans. The most interesting races of 2015 will be the open seats in Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016, the marquis contests will be the open seat in Missouri and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Washington  |  Governor  |  Inslee (D)

Solid D
Likely D

Indiana  |  Governor  |  Pence (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Ohio  |  Senate  |  Portman (R)

Lean R
Likely R

Arizona  |  Senate  |  McCain (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Arizona  |  District 01  |  Kirkpatrick (D)

Lean D
Toss Up

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Charlie Cook's Column

A Better Way to Keep Score for the 2016 Field

June 26, 2015

Every once in a while, a really good idea or new way of looking at things comes along that is worth replicating.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2014 election.

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