Americans are angry, say the cable TV pundits and armchair political observers. They are angry at a dysfunctional Washington, DC. Angry at the out-of-touch political class. Angry at an out-of-control bureaucracy. The only problem with this argument is that, well, Americans aren’t actually any angrier at government today than they were a year ago, or even four years ago. In fact, according to...
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 16, 2016. When people discuss vice presidential running mates, I’m always surprised that they tend to get fixated on one factor to the exclusion of everything else. The truth is that there are a lot of considerations in selecting a running mate. .
When most people think of battleground America, they think of Florida and Ohio, two of only three states (along with Nevada) that have voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1996. They tend not to think of Pennsylvania as a classic “swing state” — it has voted for the Democrat in every election since 1992, and it didn’t even crack the top 10 in 2012 campaign ad spending.
"We exchanged differences on a number of things," said Speaker Paul Ryan after his meeting with soon-to-be Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump. "There are policy disputes that we will have. There is no two ways about it. Plenty of Republicans disagree with one another on policy disputes."
In December, after Donald Trump called for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country, NRCC Chair Rep. Greg Walden declared "This is not what we're about as a party, this is not what we're about as a country, and we cannot yield to this." And what about the GOP House seats he's charged with protecting? "It puts, certainly, competitive seats in jeopardy. We'll have a much more difficult...
While Republicans see this open-seat contest as their best opportunity to pick up a Democratic-held seat in 2016, Democrats aren’t folding their tent here. Billionaire Jim Justice easily won the Democratic nomination with 51 percent of the vote. Justice owns the Greenbrier resort and, according to his bio, is head of 47 different companies that are engaged in businesses ranging coal mining to...
Senate FEC reports for the first quarter of 2016 are now available. Web Editor Ally Flinn has compiled the chart below that provides both quarterly and cycle-to-date receipts and expenditures, as well as the cash-on-hand totals for incumbents and challengers. Find out which incumbent is sitting on a $26 million war chest, which Senator has less than $1 million in the bank, and which incumbent...
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 9, 2016. All of us in the political-pundit class could be wrong again about Donald Trump, along with 25 of the 29 national polls collected by Realclearpolitics.com so far this year. It is, after all, conceivable that Trump could beat Hillary Clinton in November.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. In 2014, thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, but the prospect of the broadly unpopular Donald Trump as the Republican nominee could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. Still, given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it would be very difficult for Democrats to net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats, with substantially larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat in November.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hold Your Noses on Election DayMay 27, 2016
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