House Republicans were caught on the horns of a dilemma. If they didn’t pass a bill that effectively repealed and replaced Obamacare, they would either look ineffectual or in defiance of their conservative base. But to pass a bill with no Democratic support in a narrowly divided House, they would need support of the vast majority of the conservative Freedom Caucus,...
Finishing Amie Parnes and Jonathan Allen’s engrossing book, Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign, listening to Clinton offering her perspective on why she lost to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, and watching FBI Director James Comey testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee in the same week leaves a decidedly mixed view of the last election.
Much was made of recent polling showing a spike in the percentage of Americans who say they want a more active or bigger government. An April NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 57 percent of Americans wanted to see “government do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people” — up seven points from 2015. In the April Pew Poll, 48 percent said they were supportive of “bigger...
Republicans' 217-213 passage of the American Health Care Act on Thursday guarantees Democrats will have at least one major on-the-record vote to exploit in the next elections. Although it's the first of potentially many explosive votes, House Republicans' willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is...
The bitter partisanship that has enveloped Capitol Hill, the White House, Washington, and the country is deeply troubling, and it’s getting worse. Today, collegiality and cooperation between the parties is more the exception than the rule. An example of the exception was the unveiling last week of the portrait of former House Energy and Commerce Committee...
Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats in states that President Donald Trump carried in 2016. These 10 incumbents – a.k.a. The Ten – will spend the cycle making some interesting decisions about whether to side with their party or vote with their more Republican-leaning constituents.
In Texas, when people talk loudly and promise a lot but deliver little, they are said to be “all hat and no cattle.” On the eve of President Trump’s first 100 days, that’s a pretty apt description of his first few months in office. The first-100-day yardstick may be artificial and arbitrary, but his corral is pretty empty, at least legislatively. Although a little over two...
One of the biggest questions during the 2016 campaign was if the GOP party would ever accept Donald Trump, an outsider to the party, as its standard bearer. More than once during 2016 I was convinced that the Republican Party would break apart rather than coalesce around a candidate whose behavior, values and ideology were so foreign to its core. Of course, that proved to be wrong as 90 percent...
Florida GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's retirement, first reported by the Miami Herald, vaults her Miami district to the very top of Democrats' takeover list. Over 27 years in the House, Ros-Lehtinen's reputation as firmly anti-Castro but strongly pro-gay rights made her highly popular back home, even as FL-27 trended away from the national GOP. Now Democrats will be favored to win the district,...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
A Week That Could Revive TrumpMay 25, 2017
Last week, it was the role of Russia in the 2016 campaign that dominated the news; this week, with President Trump on his first overseas trip and largely sticking to his script, it’s more likely to be the substantive challenges facing congressional Republicans that will move to center stage in Washington.Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »
Amy Walter, National Editor
Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
Read More »
The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »