With his attempts to woo Democrats unsuccessful, President Obama turned to Republicans this week to help rescue his Asia trade hopes. Obama has succeeded in the first step, with the House voting to support Trade Promotion Authority for the President by a vote of 218 to 208. Just 28 Democrats supported the president.
The Republican practice for determining a presidential nominee has long been to have a fight, then nominate whoever's turn it is to be the party's standard-bearer. It has been a relatively orderly, hierarchical process. And if Republicans behave accordingly next year, they will slug it out before nominating former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whose turn it would seem to be.
Last Friday, a three-judge federal panel reaffirmed an October ruling striking down Virginia's congressional map on the grounds that the African-American 3rd District amounts to an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The news is a potentially significant victory for Democrats, who are at an historic low-point in the House in part because GOP legislatures in the South have packed
Delaware: This race is in something of a holding pattern in the wake of former Democratic state Attorney General Beau Biden’s death in late May. Biden was an overwhelming frontrunner both for the Democratic nomination and in the general election to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Jack Markell. Other Democrats interested in the race are staying on the sidelines for now as Biden’s family...
What makes Scott Walker such a formidable candidate in the primary is also what makes him vulnerable in a general election. As Walker flexes his conservative muscles on everything from immigration to gay marriage to abortion, he also risks being easily portrayed as 'out of touch' to the moderate voters needed to win this fall.
Another political analyst and I recently decided just for fun to write down what percentage chance we would give the top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination. My colleague was bold, giving Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker a 35 percent chance of getting the nod, Sen. Marco Rubio a 30 percent chance, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush a 25 percent chance, and "someone else" a 10 percent...
Democrats' dominance in Connecticut's House delegation was unchanged by the GOP wave of 2014. If there is still a "swing" seat in the state, it's the northwestern 5th CD held by sophomore Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty. In 2014, Republicans nominated a candidate who was way too conservative for the district, and held her to 53 percent. It's unlikely she will have a more difficult time in a...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 245 Republicans and 188 Democrats, with two vacancies. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, and if they win upcoming special elections in New York's 11th CD and Mississippi's 1st CD, they will win their largest number of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, winning the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-15 seat range.
The 2016 cycle will host 15 gubernatorial contests, including three races in 2015, and 12 in 2016, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending nine seats to six for Republicans. The most interesting races of 2015 will be the open seats in Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016, the marquis contests will be the open seat in Missouri and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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A Better Way to Keep Score for the 2016 FieldJune 26, 2015
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