For years, Sen. Daniel Inouye's political organization dominated Hawaii politics, anointing loyalists up and down the ballot. But Inouye's passing in 2012 prompted a multi-year game of musical chairs, and the old machine has crumbled. In 2014, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, an Inouye protege, challenged appointed Sen. Brian Schatz in the primary and lost.
Republicans strengthened their grip in Georgia in 2014 when they finally defeated the last white House Democrat in the Deep South, Rep. John Barrow. Between a competitive Senate race and three open GOP seats, 2014 was a political frenzy in the Peach State. But so far, 2016 is shaping up to be much quieter.
If you work in political advertising, it’s easy to believe that the business, populated by its own agencies and governed by unique rates and rules, exists in isolation from the rest of the ad industry. Quite to the contrary, political buffets the broader industry in two big ways. First, as a cause of increasing disruption. As Election Days draw closer, more and more nonpolitical ads are...
The biggest winner was Fox News. The questions were tough but fair, no one can accuse Fox of pulling their punches. Donald Trump came into the debate with a big lead in the polls so they reserved their toughest punches for him, but every candidate in the primetime debate was worked over. Fox was also vindicated in their decision to bifurcate the debates. There is no way the prime time...
With just 188 seats, House Democrats may be deep in the minority. However, that doesn't make them insignificant. In the last Congress, Republican leaders struggled to quell internal revolts and depended on Democratic support to pass several must-pass pieces of legislation, making Democrats one of the most influential minority parties in a while. And although Democrats are more liberal than ever...
A huge campaign war chest, a very red state and seniority in the Senate combine to ensure that Republican Sen. Richard Shelby gets re-elected with ease. In fact, no credible Democrat gives the idea of challenging either of the state’s two U.S. Senators even a passing glance.
As Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski approaches a campaign for a second full term, the question waiting to be answered is what kind of race will she get? At this point in 2009, it looked as if Murkowski was on a glide path to re-election, but ended up losing the primary to Tea Party candidate Joe Miller and winning re-election as a write-in candidate. It’s hard to fathom that scenario repeating...
Senate FEC reports for the second quarter of the 2016 election cycle are now available. Web Editor Ally Flinn has compiled the chart below that provides the cash-on-hand totals for incumbents, as well as selected U.S. House Members who have announced or who have been mentioned as potential Senate candidates.
This week, Republicans in the Florida Senate unveiled a draft of a new congressional map designed to comply with the Florida Supreme Court's ruling last month striking down the state's lines. As expected, the proposal would likely flip partisan control in the districts of Reps. Gwen Graham (FL-02), Dan Webster (FL-10), and David Jolly (FL-13), netting Democrats one seat. The courts have...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans and 188 Democrats, with one vacancy. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, their largest share of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, netting the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-15 seat range.
The 2016 cycle will host 15 gubernatorial contests, including three races in 2015, and 12 in 2016, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending nine seats to six for Republicans. The most interesting races of 2015 will be the open seats in Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016, the marquis contests will be the open seat in Missouri and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
Biden vs. Clinton Buzz Adds to 2016 IntrigueAugust 6, 2015
It certainly is hard for me to relate to University of Alabama and New York Jets quarterback Joe Namath's 1969 fun autobiography, I Can't Wait Until Tomorrow ... 'Cause I Get Better-Looking Every Day. But in terms of politics these days, I do feel that I "can't wait until tomorrow ... 'cause Campaign 2016 is getting better every day."Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »
Amy Walter, National Editor
Elizabeth Wilner, Contributing Editor
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
Read More »
The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2014 election.Download »