Donald Trump's decision to tap Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate means that Republicans are going to have to find a new gubernatorial nominee. Pence is prohibited from running for both offices, and he had until noon today to withdraw from the Governor's race.
Omaha, Nebraska is 1,665 miles from Bangor, Maine. Culturally, they're worlds apart: white-collar Omaha is becoming more cosmopolitan while northern Maine is well-known for its blue-collar independent streak. But they could also be the story of the 2016 election in a nutshell.
For much of this cycle, this was an open-seat race as incumbent U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio had announced that he would not seek re-election so that he could devote his time to seeking the Republican presidential nomination. And, it was increasingly looking like a contest that was slipping away from Republicans.
Democrats are feeling bullish these days, and former Sen. Evan Bayh’s decision to jump into Indiana’s Senate race adds to their upbeat mood. With a $9.3 million war chest left over from his last Senate campaign, Bayh gives his party a far better chance of picking up a seat than it would have had otherwise.
What politics giveth, it taketh away. Three weeks ago Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's decision to run for re-election in Florida greatly improved the party's chances of holding the seat and improved the Senate landscape for the GOP overall.
A year ago, it was unthinkable that Republican members of Congress would ever support Donald Trump. Even in mid-February, eight months after he had launched his candidacy, not a single sitting member of Congress had endorsed him. Of course, Trump's willingness to verbally assault his own party's politicians probably helped him win the GOP nomination with about 45 percent of GOP primary voters.
FBI Director James Comey’s announcement Tuesday morning that Hillary Clinton will not be indicted effectively removes one of the last important variables in this presidential election—at least any that we know about. Comey’s rather remarkable 15-minute, nationally televised statement carefully reviewed the FBI’s year-long investigation into allegations that...
It could be said that the 2016 presidential election is once again a question of economics versus demographics. On one hand, wage stagnation and a narrow economic recovery have contributed to the anxiety that fueled Donald Trump’s rise. But if he wants to beat Hillary Clinton, he’ll need to swim against a powerful demographic tide that continues to aid Democrats in the race for 270 electoral...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. In 2014, thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, but the prospect of the broadly unpopular Donald Trump as the Republican nominee could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. Still, given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it would be very difficult for Democrats to net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats, with substantially larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat in November.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Trump Gets Bounce From Convention and Now It’s Clinton’s TurnJuly 29, 2016
Take your pick among the two major national polls released Monday morning: Either Donald Trump is ahead of Hillary Clinton by as much as 3 or 4 points, or the two are running dead even. It depends on whether you focus on the CBS News poll or the CNN/ORC survey, whether you include the Libertarian and Green Party candidates, and whether you push the undecided voters who...Read more »
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »