In many ways, the challenge facing Republicans in enacting their American Health Care Act looks pretty close to insurmountable. The most conservative members of the House Republican Conference, as well as allied groups such as the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, the Heritage Foundation, and Breitbart News, are deriding it as “Obamacare Lite” and a betrayal of...
President Trump is going to miss Hillary Clinton. Last November, both Trump and Clinton had enthusiastic supporters. But most voters cast negative ballots against one or the other. And some voters, called “double negatives” by pollsters, disliked both of them so much that they picked what they saw as the lesser of two evils or threw their support to Libertarian Party...
President Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton was among the narrowest in history, and the country is deeply split on his job performance so far. But if you feel like you hardly know anyone who disagrees with you about Trump, you’re not alone: Chances are the election was a landslide in your backyard.
Stuff just got real here in Washington. With the introduction of the Obamacare repeal/replace legislation (the American Health Care Act) we are now going to finally find out if an ideologically flexible president who lacks a core governing philosophy (or governing experience) can get an ideologically diverse party with little experience in political power to pass his agenda. At first...
President Trump's election was probably the best thing to happen to Democrats' chances of retaking the House majority in 2018, and his rocky start has the out party energized. But to pick up 24 seats, Democrats will need to overcome their voters' urban concentration and GOP-drawn maps. There are only 23 Republicans sitting in districts Clinton won, meaning Democrats will have to reach into...
Congressional Republicans are now learning to appreciate how nice and simple life was when Barack Obama was president. They could attack, investigate, and pass the buck, blaming him for any complaint constituents might have. They could vote to repeal Obamacare without offering a replacement. It was so easy that they did it 60 times. Few people even noticed, and they...
Let’s face it. No one really knows what’s going to happen this year. The president and his aides pride themselves on misdirection and unpredictability, even as they are firmly committed to a populist and nationalist agenda. Many Republicans in DC are uncomfortable with parts of this agenda - as well as his style - but they are happy to have a White House willing to push ahead on their top...
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Presidency Headed in the Wrong DirectionMarch 28, 2017
Nobody knows where this nascent Donald Trump presidency is going. New administrations start off with an infinite number of potential trajectories, but this one is even more unpredictable than others. Trump could still turn out to be a successful president. As an American, I certainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thousand cuts.”Read more »
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