So much is happening in Washington and yet nothing is happening at all. The investigation into Russian meddling into the 2016 campaign continues to get lots of attention (and produce a lot of leaks), but it’s not likely to come to a conclusion anytime soon. Republicans fret privately about the president and publicly lament his lack of Twitter discipline, yet they show no signs of abandoning...
We’re only 140 days into a new presidential administration and yet there is already a stream of articles speculating about the contest for the 2020 Democratic nomination. There is a side of me that believes it is much too soon to start talking about that, but this conversation is already taking place and in fact is getting fairly loud. I guess there must not be much...
Eleven days out, the most expensive and built-up House special election of all time is still a Toss Up. Fueled by anger towards President Trump from all corners of the country, Democrat Jon Ossoff has raised $25 million to Republican Karen Handel's $4 million, but at this point it's a story of diminishing returns: for example, Ossoff has aired three Spanish-language ads in a district where the...
As my colleagues and I have been writing for the last few weeks, a clear “enthusiasm” gap is opening between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats more engaged (or is it enraged?) than their GOP counterparts. We are seeing a drop in “strong” approval for President Trump as well as less than robust turn-out from GOP voters in special elections in Kansas, Georgia and Montana.
With the midterm elections 17 months away, it’s pretty clear that all of this Russia business is relevant. We have a new president with no government experience, a mercurial temperament, and an outsize ego. His hopelessly short-staffed administration is struggling to get his legislative agenda through the House and Senate, where the GOP is trying to manage thin...
Republican Greg Gianforte's 50 percent to 44 percent defeat of Democrat Rob Quist in last week's Montana's special election didn't make nearly as much noise as his eleventh hour "body slam" of a reporter. In fact, the episode—which took place after nearly three quarters of voters had already cast their ballots - gave Republicans a way to excuse what was otherwise a poor performance in a...
Polls show President Trump’s approval numbers languishing around 40 percent, while the anger and intensity of the Democratic base is rising and the Republican base remains pretty complacent, not full of fight as it was during the Obama years. Reflecting those findings, MSNBC is now topping both Fox News and CNN in the key demographic of viewers age 18 to 54, and the...
It’s hard for Democrats not to be gloating right now. After last fall’s election, they’re entitled to a bit of schadenfreude. Notwithstanding President Trump’s so far uneventful but largely favorable foreign trip, his poll numbers, even in Fox News polls, are in the toilet. The legislative challenges facing the White House and Republicans are enormous, Trumpcare has...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Democrats Find It’s Risky to Poke the GOP ElephantJune 27, 2017
There’s an old saying that close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and that’s certainly how Democrats must feel after losing their third and fourth attempts of the year to wrestle away Republican-held seats in special congressional elections. In fairness, the first two shouldn’t fully count against them since the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was...Read more »
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