Republicans absolutely cleaned up on Election Day a month ago. But, the swing from one election to the next is never uniform. Some Republicans did even better than could have been anticipated and "beat the point spread." And, a few Democrats successfully swam against a powerful GOP tide. All of which begs the question, isn't there a way to quantify the most and least impressive campaigns of...
There are a lot of 2014 Senate campaigns that deserve praise, including Republican Cory Gardner’s defeat of Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado, and Sen. Mitch McConnell’s 15-point victory over Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky. There is one race, though, that should be singled out for a number of reasons, and that is GOP Sen. Pat Roberts’ campaign in Kansas...
Much has been said about the long-term demographic challenges facing the Republican Party. Given how dismally Republicans fare with African-American voters—Mitt Romney and congressional Republicans garnered only 6 percent and 8 percent, respectively, in 2012, and this year congressional Republicans got 10 percent—it matters how the GOP does with other minority voters. In 2012, Romney picked...
A rundown of recent public opinion polling ahead of the December 6, 2014 Louisiana Senate runoff election between Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy.
Democrats lost badly at the congressional level in 2014. That, of course, got a lot of coverage. Democrats also took huge losses at the state level. That didn’t get a lot of attention. State legislators get coverage when they do something stupid or illegal (or both). Even so, Democrats losses at the state level are a more profound problem for Democrats than the loss of the Senate. As one...
The votes have been counted in the 2014 elections and the results revealed there were fewer to count than many had expected. In fact, the proportion of Americans legally eligible to cast ballots in this most recent election was the lowest in more than seven decades. Every fall of an even-numbered year, the most predictable media story is “the unrelenting negative campaign” and how Americans...
The winner of a political argument is often determined by two things: timing and framing. In the case of immigration reform—at least the specific battle over President Obama's executive order last week—the policy is put in place, and it is unlikely that it will be successfully legislatively or judicially overturned before he leaves office. The question here is who wins the political argument...
An oft-asked question these days is just how the Republican takeover of the Senate—and the GOP's now-complete occupation of Capitol Hill—will affect the 2016 presidential election. More specifically, how will it affect former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton should she decide to run for president? While the conventional wisdom now appears to be that the GOP takeover helps her 2016 ambitions,...
When the New York Times’ Robert Pear wrote recently of the “powerful, mutually beneficial partnership” forged by the Obama Administration and the nation’s health insurers around the Affordable Care Act, he singled out the “crucial support” insurers provided the Administration in legal battles and in repairing Healthcare.gov. As big a boon for the Administration, if not bigger: an...
After two disappointing cycles, Republicans have won the majority in the Senate. We had been predicting that Republicans would pick up between four and seven seats, noting that it would likely be on the higher end of that range and might even exceed it. They did exceed it, scoring a net gain of eight seats. The run-off in Louisiana between Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and GOP U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy could make it nine seats. The new Senate line-up is 53 Republicans, 46 Democrats, including two independents that caucus with the Democrats, and one undecided race.
The current House breakdown is 234 Republicans and 201 Democrats. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's midterm turnout advantages, Republicans appear to have gained 13 seats, assuming their candidate's lead withstands a recount in Arizona's 2nd CD. If Republicans were to gain 13 seats, they would win their largest majority since Herbert Hoover was elected in 1928. This also means Democrats would need to capture 30 GOP seats to win a majority in 2016, a very difficult proposition considering the House is very well sorted-out.
The 36 Governors races on the ballot this cycle were supposed to provide Democrats with a silver lining on election night. For much of the cycle, they looked poised to pick up between two and four seats since Republicans had to defend governorships in states President Obama carried easily in 2012. But, Republican incumbents ran very solid races, while Democrats struggled to hold their some of their open seats, including two in very blue states. In the end, Republicans actually picked up seats, defeating Gov. Pat Quinn in Illinois and winning open seats in Arkansas, Maryland, and Massachusetts. The GOP lost Pennsylvania, where Gov. Tom Corbett was running for a second term, and the results of Gov. Sean Parnell's re-election bid in Alaska are pending. The new line up of the nation’s Governors is 31 Republicans and 17 Democrats, with the outcome of two races pending (Alaska and Vermont).
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
Matter of PerspectiveDecember 12, 2014
It's true that perspective is everything in politics, but we often forget just how true that is. There can be two diametrically opposed points of view, each supported by indisputable facts, but reality can be somewhere in between. Although no one can deny that Democrats have had an awful year—three-term Sen. Mary Landrieu's reelection loss on Saturday put the final exclamation point on...Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »
Amy Walter, National Editor
Elizabeth Wilner, Contributing Editor
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
Read More »
The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes looks at the run-up to the 2014 election.Download »