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National Politics|By Amy Walter, July 15, 2015

I promised myself that I would not write about Donald Trump. There is approximately zero percent chance that he will be the GOP nominee. Moreover, the odds are incredibly small that his candidacy survives much into 2016. He’s a blowhard who is desperate for attention and will do anything to get it. But, like the oppressive humidity of a DC summer, he has become unavoidable. I am asked about...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, July 15, 2015

For the last four years, Democrats in DC and Florida have been hoping and praying for the day when courts would strike down a Republican gerrymander. And yet now that the Florida Supreme Court has done exactly that, it looks more like a case of "Be careful what you wish for."

National Politics|By Charlie Cook and David Wasserman, July 14, 2015

Part of what makes the 2016 presidential race so much fun is that two very astute observers looking at it through two different lenses can come up with two totally different predictions about which party is likely to prevail.

National Politics|By Amy Walter and David Wasserman, July 10, 2015

Many analysts have devoted endless hours pondering the Republican Party's woes with Latino voters and prescriptions for how the party can fix them in time for 2016. There's little doubt the past decade's heated immigration reform debates have badly damaged the GOP's standing with Latinos, whom Mitt Romney lost by 44 points in 2012 and with Asian voters as well, whom Romney lost by 47 points. To...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 10, 2015

When I attended a funeral service last week for Ben Wattenberg, it really hit me how much our country and politics have changed in the 45 years since he and Richard Scammon wrote The Real Majority, a landmark, best-selling book analyzing the American electorate and voter behavior.

House Overview|By David Wasserman, July 7, 2015

Nevada GOP Rep. Joe Heck's decision to run for Senate is welcome news for Senate Republicans, but it's also good news for House Democrats. The newly open 3rd District, based in Henderson and Summerlin, gave President Obama 54 percent in 2008 and a narrow 49 percent plurality in 2012. Once a GOP-leaning area, it's become a melting pot: it's just 58 percent white, 17 percent Latino, 12 percent...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 3, 2015

The momentous events of the last week can be interpreted in numerous ways. But one thing has become increasingly clear: The Republican Party needs to change.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 1, 2015

One of the biggest questions in next year's presidential election will be what role gender will play in the voting and outcome, particularly if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wins the nomination. Over the past six presidential elections, Democrats have swept the female vote, by 8 points in 1992, by 16 points in 1996, by 11 points in 2000, by just 3 points in 2004, by 13 points in...

Arizona House|By David Wasserman, June 29, 2015

In a 5-4 ruling handed down this morning, the Supreme Court rejected a challenge to Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission and quashed the specter of partisan, mid-decade redistricting in both Arizona and California. The biggest winners today are the incumbents who were at risk of being drawn out of a seat in 2016: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09) and GOP Reps. Jeff Denham...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.

  • The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans and 188 Democrats, with one vacancy. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, their largest share of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, netting the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-15 seat range.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 15 gubernatorial contests, including three races in 2015, and 12 in 2016, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending nine seats to six for Republicans. The most interesting races of 2015 will be the open seats in Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016, the marquis contests will be the open seat in Missouri and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Florida  |  District 13  |  Jolly (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

Oregon  |  Governor  |  Brown (D)

Solid D
Likely D

Florida  |  District 07  |  Mica (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Florida  |  District 10  |  Webster (R)

Lean R
Likely R

Florida  |  District 13  |  Jolly (R)

Toss Up
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

What Donald Trump's Surge Meant

July 24, 2015

It was inevitable: If given enough rope, Donald Trump would hang himself.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2014 election.

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