Despite all the noise from both sides of the debate, when you run the numbers, it turns out that Donald Trump could win the nomination on the first ballot precisely because of the GOP’s delegate rules. Ted Cruz also benefits, but not until later ballots. The losers? John Kasich and all the other candidates, and their supporters.
Next Tuesday, voters will witness something that has become as rare as a total solar eclipse: a very competitive Democratic Senate primary in a race that matters. Former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, Katie McGinty, who was most recently chief of staff to Gov. Tom Wolf, Braddock Mayor John Fetterman, and businessman Joe Vadvarka are vying for the nomination to take on GOP U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey in the...
The likelihood of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as the GOP's presidential nominee has given Democrats newfound optimism about their prospects for down-ballot success in 2016. A Hillary Clinton landslide could force Republicans in swing and light-red districts to run against the top of their own ticket and to argue that they would be needed in Congress as a check on a Clinton agenda.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump easily won Tuesday’s New York primary. That was entirely expected and consistent with recent polling. Here’s what the road ahead looks like for the two frontrunners and their closest competitors.
On Saturday, Democrats claimed a late recruiting coup when state Sen. Terri Bonoff announced she will challenge four-term GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in suburban Minneapolis's 3rd CD. Paulsen's moderate demeanor and record are a good fit here: he took 58 percent in 2012 and 62 percent in 2014. But a Donald Trump or Ted Cruz nomination could be problematic for down-ticket Republicans in the 3rd, by...
It's not quite a mass exodus, but nearly four dozen members of the House are headed for the exits this year. Despite the GOP's historic majority, nearly two thirds are Republicans - including over a dozen members of the class of 2010. The good news for both parties - but especially Republicans - is that a majority of these are safe seats. We currently rate only 13 of these seats as vulnerable,...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. In 2014, thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, but the prospect of the broadly unpopular Donald Trump as the Republican nominee could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. Still, given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it would be very difficult for Democrats to net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats, with substantially larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat in November.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Trump Couldn’t Possibly Win—Except That He Probably WillMay 3, 2016
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 28, 2016. The thing that I never thought would happen is really happening. The idea that the Republican Party would nominate Donald Trump—reality TV star, real estate developer, and all-around showboat—seemed ridiculous and, as I kept saying, inconceivable.Read more »
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »