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North Dakota Governor|By Jennifer Duffy, June 17, 2016

In August of last year, Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple announced that he would not seek a second full term, setting off the race to replace him.

Nevada Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, June 17, 2016

This open seat where Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid is retiring after five terms is Republicans’ best opportunity to pick up a Democratic-held seat. Reid hopes he anointed his successor when he threw his support to former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, who pulled just nominal primary opposition and won the nomination with 81 percent. The Republican field quickly solidified...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, June 17, 2016

Amid Hillary Clinton's rising numbers, House Democrats have also benefited from a small string of favorable developments. This week's primaries in NV-03 and NV-04 couldn't have turned out much better for the DCCC, which got pretty much all the candidates it wanted. And although Republicans are still a solid bet to keep the House, several GOP incumbents continue to be their own worst enemies.

National Politics |By Charlie Cook, June 17, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 13, 2016.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, June 16, 2016

This election year has been rife with conspiracy theories. Most of them, of course, have been peddled by Donald Trump. The most recent - that Trump is somehow going to be denied the nomination in Cleveland - comes from establishment and inside-the-Beltway types who should know better.

National Politics |By Charlie Cook, June 14, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 9, 2016.

Political Books|By Michael Nelson, June 13, 2016

The federal government is constipated, according to William G. Howell and Terry M. Moe, two of the country’s leading presidential scholars and the authors of "Relic: How Our Constitution Undermines Effective Government and Why We Need a More Powerful Presidency."

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, June 10, 2016

For down ballot races, there is nothing more certain about this election cycle than its uncertainty. This is a cycle without precedent. As the presidential primary contests for both parties demonstrated, history and experience proved only marginally useful in analyzing and trying to predict outcomes.

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, June 10, 2016

California Senate: Revised Bottom Line

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.

  • The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. In 2014, thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, but the prospect of the broadly unpopular Donald Trump as the Republican nominee could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. Still, given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it would be very difficult for Democrats to net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats, with substantially larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat in November.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Florida  |  District 13  |  Jolly (R)

Likely D
Lean D

North Dakota  |  Governor  |  Dalrymple (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Utah  |  District 04  |  Love (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 18  |  Maloney (D)

Solid D
Likely D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

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Charlie Cook's Column

Trump Needs a Trick of Fates to Win

June 24, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 20, 2016.

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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