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National Politics|By Amy Walter, May 19, 2016

Americans are angry, say the cable TV pundits and armchair political observers. They are angry at a dysfunctional Washington, DC. Angry at the out-of-touch political class. Angry at an out-of-control bureaucracy. The only problem with this argument is that, well, Americans aren’t actually any angrier at government today than they were a year ago, or even four years ago. In fact, according to...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 19, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 16, 2016. When people discuss vice presidential running mates, I’m always surprised that they tend to get fix­ated on one factor to the exclusion of everything else. The truth is that there are a lot of considerations in selecting a running mate. .

National Politics|By David Wasserman, May 17, 2016

When most people think of battleground America, they think of Florida and Ohio, two of only three states (along with Nevada) that have voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1996. They tend not to think of Pennsylvania as a classic “swing state” — it has voted for the Democrat in every election since 1992, and it didn’t even crack the top 10 in 2012 campaign ad spending.

National Politics |By Charlie Cook, May 17, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 12, 2016.

National Politics|By Frances Lee, May 16, 2016

"We exchanged differences on a number of things," said Speaker Paul Ryan after his meeting with soon-to-be Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump. "There are policy disputes that we will have. There is no two ways about it. Plenty of Republicans disagree with one another on policy disputes."

House Overview|By David Wasserman, May 13, 2016

In December, after Donald Trump called for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country, NRCC Chair Rep. Greg Walden declared "This is not what we're about as a party, this is not what we're about as a country, and we cannot yield to this." And what about the GOP House seats he's charged with protecting? "It puts, certainly, competitive seats in jeopardy. We'll have a much more difficult...

West Virginia Governor:|By Jennifer Duffy, May 13, 2016

While Republicans see this open-seat contest as their best opportunity to pick up a Democratic-held seat in 2016, Democrats aren’t folding their tent here. Billionaire Jim Justice easily won the Democratic nomination with 51 percent of the vote. Justice owns the Greenbrier resort and, according to his bio, is head of 47 different companies that are engaged in businesses ranging coal mining to...

SENATE FEC REPORT|May 13, 2016

Senate FEC reports for the first quarter of 2016 are now available. Web Editor Ally Flinn has compiled the chart below that provides both quarterly and cycle-to-date receipts and expenditures, as well as the cash-on-hand totals for incumbents and challengers. Find out which incumbent is sitting on a $26 million war chest, which Senator has less than $1 million in the bank, and which incumbent...

National Politics |By Charlie Cook, May 13, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 9, 2016. All of us in the political-pundit class could be wrong again about Donald Trump, along with 25 of the 29 national polls collected by Realclearpolitics.com so far this year. It is, after all, conceivable that Trump could beat Hillary Clinton in November.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.

  • The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. In 2014, thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, but the prospect of the broadly unpopular Donald Trump as the Republican nominee could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. Still, given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it would be very difficult for Democrats to net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats, with substantially larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat in November.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Washington  |  District 08  |  Reichert (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Michigan  |  District 08  |  Bishop (R)

Likely R
Solid R

West Virginia  |  District 02  |  Mooney (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Indiana  |  Governor  |  Pence (R)

Lean R
Likely R

Michigan  |  District 11  |  Trott (R)

Likely R
Solid R

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Charlie Cook's Column

Hold Your Noses on Election Day

May 27, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 23, 2016.

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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