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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 15, 2017

In many ways, the chal­lenge fa­cing Re­pub­lic­ans in en­act­ing their Amer­ic­an Health Care Act looks pretty close to in­sur­mount­able. The most con­ser­vat­ive mem­bers of the House Re­pub­lic­an Con­fer­ence, as well as al­lied groups such as the Club for Growth, Freedom­Works, the Her­it­age Found­a­tion, and Breit­bart News, are de­rid­ing it as “Obama­care Lite” and a be­tray­al of...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 10, 2017

Pres­id­ent Trump is go­ing to miss Hil­lary Clin­ton. Last Novem­ber, both Trump and Clin­ton had en­thu­si­ast­ic sup­port­ers. But most voters cast neg­at­ive bal­lots against one or the oth­er. And some voters, called “double neg­at­ives” by poll­sters, dis­liked both of them so much that they picked what they saw as the less­er of two evils or threw their sup­port to Liber­tari­an Party...

National Politics|By David Wasserman, March 10, 2017

President Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton was among the narrowest in history, and the country is deeply split on his job performance so far. But if you feel like you hardly know anyone who disagrees with you about Trump, you’re not alone: Chances are the election was a landslide in your backyard.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, March 9, 2017

Stuff just got real here in Washington. With the introduction of the Obamacare repeal/replace legislation (the American Health Care Act) we are now going to finally find out if an ideologically flexible president who lacks a core governing philosophy (or governing experience) can get an ideologically diverse party with little experience in political power to pass his agenda. At first...

National Politics |By Charlie Cook, March 7, 2017

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 3, 2017

House Overview|By David Wasserman, March 3, 2017

President Trump's election was probably the best thing to happen to Democrats' chances of retaking the House majority in 2018, and his rocky start has the out party energized. But to pick up 24 seats, Democrats will need to overcome their voters' urban concentration and GOP-drawn maps. There are only 23 Republicans sitting in districts Clinton won, meaning Democrats will have to reach into...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 3, 2017

Con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans are now learn­ing to ap­pre­ci­ate how nice and simple life was when Barack Obama was pres­id­ent. They could at­tack, in­vest­ig­ate, and pass the buck, blam­ing him for any com­plaint con­stitu­ents might have. They could vote to re­peal Obama­care without of­fer­ing a re­place­ment. It was so easy that they did it 60 times. Few people even no­ticed, and they...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, March 2, 2017

Let’s face it. No one really knows what’s going to happen this year. The president and his aides pride themselves on misdirection and unpredictability, even as they are firmly committed to a populist and nationalist agenda. Many Republicans in DC are uncomfortable with parts of this agenda - as well as his style - but they are happy to have a White House willing to push ahead on their top...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 28, 2017

The two-thirds of Re­pub­lic­ans in the House who have nev­er served when the GOP held ma­jor­it­ies in the House and Sen­ate along­side a GOP pres­id­ent can be for­giv­en for not re­mem­ber­ing the last time they were sim­il­arly situ­ated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Demo­crats were last in that situ­ation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Presidency Headed in the Wrong Direction

March 28, 2017

Nobody knows where this nas­cent Don­ald Trump pres­id­ency is go­ing. New ad­min­is­tra­tions start off with an in­fin­ite num­ber of po­ten­tial tra­ject­or­ies, but this one is even more un­pre­dict­able than oth­ers. Trump could still turn out to be a suc­cess­ful pres­id­ent. As an Amer­ic­an, I cer­tainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thou­sand cuts.”

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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