I have no idea what is going to happen in Iowa and New Hampshire. If the polls are correct, Donald Trump is on his way to victory in both states. On the Democratic side, Iowa is a coin-toss and Bernie Sanders wins big in New Hampshire. But, I also have little confidence that this is how things will work out. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by anything.
In private conversations with roughly a dozen GOP members of the House over the past two weeks, what’s striking is their struggle to reconcile their own desire to recapture the White House with GOP primary voters’ preferences in their districts. Reactions to grassroots groundswells of support for Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, even among members from rural deep-red districts,...
It’s widely believed that one possible outcome of a Clinton-Trump or a Clinton-Cruz matchup in November is a Democratic landslide that extends not just to the presidency but also to the Senate (probably) and the House (possibly).
Alabama Senate: Republican Sen. Richard Shelby hasn’t gotten less than 60 percent of the vote since 1992 when he was running for a second term. He won his first Senate race in 1986 with 50 percent. The incumbent’s bid for a sixth term won’t be any different, especially in a presidential election year in deeply red Alabama. Shelby does have to contend with four primary opponents running to his...
Sometimes politicians get into a tough position with no easy way out, and their best option is just to plow straight ahead. Hillary Clinton is now in such a position.
In the wake of new Iowa and New Hampshire polls showing Bernie Sanders gaining, some say it's time for Hillary Clinton to hit the panic button. "Clinton should ABSOLUTELY be nervous about the state of the race with less than three weeks before voters in Iowa head to the caucuses," the Washington Post's Fix blog blared last week.
The issue of whether the constitutional requirement that the president be a “natural born Citizen” excludes someone born of an American parent living abroad has once again reared its head in an election campaign, this time in the form of Donald Trump’s charge that the Canadian-born Ted Cruz may not be legally eligible to serve. I’m not going to try to settle that one here, except to note that...
It’s getting increasingly annoying to watch people who ostensibly know a lot about politics going on television and saying things that I am reasonably sure they don’t really believe. Lately, it has been analysts talking up Donald Trump’s chances of winning the GOP nomination. What viewers are hearing from pros on television is very different from what is being said...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, their largest share of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, netting the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-10 seat range.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
In the Iowa Caucuses, Look for Results That Surprise YouFebruary 2, 2016
Both the GOP and Democratic races will turn on whether emotion tops organization.Read more »
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