I promised myself that I would not write about Donald Trump. There is approximately zero percent chance that he will be the GOP nominee. Moreover, the odds are incredibly small that his candidacy survives much into 2016. He’s a blowhard who is desperate for attention and will do anything to get it. But, like the oppressive humidity of a DC summer, he has become unavoidable. I am asked about...
For the last four years, Democrats in DC and Florida have been hoping and praying for the day when courts would strike down a Republican gerrymander. And yet now that the Florida Supreme Court has done exactly that, it looks more like a case of "Be careful what you wish for."
Part of what makes the 2016 presidential race so much fun is that two very astute observers looking at it through two different lenses can come up with two totally different predictions about which party is likely to prevail.
Many analysts have devoted endless hours pondering the Republican Party's woes with Latino voters and prescriptions for how the party can fix them in time for 2016. There's little doubt the past decade's heated immigration reform debates have badly damaged the GOP's standing with Latinos, whom Mitt Romney lost by 44 points in 2012 and with Asian voters as well, whom Romney lost by 47 points. To...
When I attended a funeral service last week for Ben Wattenberg, it really hit me how much our country and politics have changed in the 45 years since he and Richard Scammon wrote The Real Majority, a landmark, best-selling book analyzing the American electorate and voter behavior.
Nevada GOP Rep. Joe Heck's decision to run for Senate is welcome news for Senate Republicans, but it's also good news for House Democrats. The newly open 3rd District, based in Henderson and Summerlin, gave President Obama 54 percent in 2008 and a narrow 49 percent plurality in 2012. Once a GOP-leaning area, it's become a melting pot: it's just 58 percent white, 17 percent Latino, 12 percent...
One of the biggest questions in next year's presidential election will be what role gender will play in the voting and outcome, particularly if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wins the nomination. Over the past six presidential elections, Democrats have swept the female vote, by 8 points in 1992, by 16 points in 1996, by 11 points in 2000, by just 3 points in 2004, by 13 points in...
In a 5-4 ruling handed down this morning, the Supreme Court rejected a challenge to Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission and quashed the specter of partisan, mid-decade redistricting in both Arizona and California. The biggest winners today are the incumbents who were at risk of being drawn out of a seat in 2016: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09) and GOP Reps. Jeff Denham...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans and 188 Democrats, with one vacancy. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, their largest share of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, netting the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-15 seat range.
The 2016 cycle will host 15 gubernatorial contests, including three races in 2015, and 12 in 2016, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending nine seats to six for Republicans. The most interesting races of 2015 will be the open seats in Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016, the marquis contests will be the open seat in Missouri and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
What Donald Trump's Surge MeantJuly 24, 2015
It was inevitable: If given enough rope, Donald Trump would hang himself.Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »
Amy Walter, National Editor
Elizabeth Wilner, Contributing Editor
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
Read More »
The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2014 election.Download »