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Indiana Governor|By Jennifer Duffy, July 15, 2016

Donald Trump's decision to tap Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate means that Republicans are going to have to find a new gubernatorial nominee. Pence is prohibited from running for both offices, and he had until noon today to withdraw from the Governor's race.

House Overview |By David Wasserman, July 15, 2016

Omaha, Nebraska is 1,665 miles from Bangor, Maine. Culturally, they're worlds apart: white-collar Omaha is becoming more cosmopolitan while northern Maine is well-known for its blue-collar independent streak. But they could also be the story of the 2016 election in a nutshell.

Florida Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, July 15, 2016

For much of this cycle, this was an open-seat race as incumbent U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio had announced that he would not seek re-election so that he could devote his time to seeking the Republican presidential nomination. And, it was increasingly looking like a contest that was slipping away from Republicans.

Indiana Senate|By Charlie Cook, July 15, 2016

Democrats are feeling bullish these days, and former Sen. Evan Bayh’s decision to jump into Indiana’s Senate race adds to their upbeat mood. With a $9.3 million war chest left over from his last Senate campaign, Bayh gives his party a far better chance of picking up a seat than it would have had otherwise.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, July 13, 2016

I have a complicated relationship with the vice presidential speculation phase of the presidential campaign.

Indiana Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, July 11, 2016

What politics giveth, it taketh away. Three weeks ago Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's decision to run for re-election in Florida greatly improved the party's chances of holding the seat and improved the Senate landscape for the GOP overall.

House Overview|By David Wasserman, July 8, 2016

A year ago, it was unthinkable that Republican members of Congress would ever support Donald Trump. Even in mid-February, eight months after he had launched his candidacy, not a single sitting member of Congress had endorsed him. Of course, Trump's willingness to verbally assault his own party's politicians probably helped him win the GOP nomination with about 45 percent of GOP primary voters.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 8, 2016

FBI Dir­ect­or James Comey’s an­nounce­ment Tues­day morn­ing that Hil­lary Clin­ton will not be in­dicted ef­fect­ively re­moves one of the last im­port­ant vari­ables in this pres­id­en­tial elec­tion—at least any that we know about. Comey’s rather re­mark­able 15-minute, na­tion­ally tele­vised state­ment care­fully re­viewed the FBI’s year-long in­vest­ig­a­tion in­to al­leg­a­tions that...

National Politics|By David Wasserman, July 8, 2016

It could be said that the 2016 presidential election is once again a question of economics versus demographics. On one hand, wage stagnation and a narrow economic recovery have contributed to the anxiety that fueled Donald Trump’s rise. But if he wants to beat Hillary Clinton, he’ll need to swim against a powerful demographic tide that continues to aid Democrats in the race for 270 electoral...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.

  • The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. In 2014, thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, but the prospect of the broadly unpopular Donald Trump as the Republican nominee could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. Still, given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it would be very difficult for Democrats to net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats, with substantially larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat in November.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Pennsylvania  |  District 16  |  Pitts (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Pennsylvania  |  District 07  |  Meehan (R)

Likely R
Solid R

New Jersey  |  District 03  |  MacArthur (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Indiana  |  District 09  |  Young (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Illinois  |  District 13  |  Davis (R)

Likely R
Solid R

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Charlie Cook's Column

Trump Gets Bounce From Convention and Now It’s Clinton’s Turn

July 29, 2016

Take your pick among the two ma­jor na­tion­al polls re­leased Monday morn­ing: Either Don­ald Trump is ahead of Hil­lary Clin­ton by as much as 3 or 4 points, or the two are run­ning dead even. It de­pends on wheth­er you fo­cus on the CBS News poll or the CNN/ORC sur­vey, wheth­er you in­clude the Liber­tari­an and Green Party can­did­ates, and wheth­er you push the un­de­cided voters who...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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