What a difference a week makes. In the wake of the first presidential debate, Hillary Clinton looked to be pulling away in the presidential race, the fight over the Senate majority was an even-money bet, and Republican control of the House seemed to be a cinch. Today, the presidential race looks like a cakewalk for Clinton, the Republican Senate majority looks...
Ever since last Friday's Access Hollywood bombshell, Speaker Paul Ryan has treated Trump's campaign as a sinking ship and has sounded an alarm to donors to shift resources towards saving the majority. Meanwhile, we have been inundated with questions about whether the majority is now in play. We've long been skeptical, but purposefully waited a few days to gather as much fresh data as possible...
Based on the latest public and private polling, we are revising our ratings in eight districts. Five of the changes favor Democrats. Of note, GOP Rep. Darrell Issa (CA-49), former chair of the House Oversight Committee, moves to the Toss Up column for the first time since he was elected in 2000. Our outlook remains a Democratic gain of between 5 and 20 seats in the House. Check out our full...
Over the last year we’ve witnessed a familiar pattern: Trump does or says something controversial/contentious/reprehensible (Judge Curiel, The Khan family, Alicia Machado), his poll numbers plummet and talk ensues about a Hillary Clinton “landslide” and a down ballot wipe out. The #nevertrump continent engages in Twitter schadenfreude.
David Damore, a professor of political science at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, is a Brooking Mountain West Fellow, a senior analyst at Latino Decisions, and president-elect of the Southwestern Political Science Association. Below is our interview with him on the battleground state of Nevada.
The headline of a column by The New York Times’ Jim Rutenberg in Thursday’s paper asked the question, “Editorial Writers Have Spoken, but Will the Voters Listen?” The piece noted that The Atlantic (National Journal’s older sister publication)—which had only endorsed two presidential candidates in its 159-year history just endorsed Hillary Clinton
Lincoln-Douglas this was not. In fact, the debate Sunday night between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was ugly, angry and soul-crushing. It was less a forum for undecided voters than a grudge match between two people who really, really don’t like each other. At the end of the day, however, this debate did little to change the trajectory of the campaign. This is still Clinton’s race to lose....
When the majority is at stake, the battle for the control of the U.S. Senate always becomes a math equation. What combination of seats will get one party or the other to the magic number? For Democrats this cycle, that magic number is four seats if Hilary Clinton wins the White House, or five if she isn’t successful.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under TrumpJune 23, 2017
For congressional Republicans in the new norm of the Trump presidency, nothing is easy, and everything is hard. Raising the debt ceiling in order to keep the government from defaulting on its debt is normally easy; now it is hard. Passing an omnibus budget bill to simply keep the government operating (forget the idea of passing the full battery of 12 appropriations...Read more »
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