There’s no doubt that the presidential race has tightened up, but the operative question is whether Donald Trump has caught up or even overtaken Hillary Clinton. Polls are coming in by the bushel, some traditionally reliable, others of dubious quality. The CNN/ORC poll released on Tuesday caught a lot of attention. The sample of all registered voters showed Clinton ahead by 3 points, 44 to 41...
Daniel A. Smith is Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida and President of ElectionSmith, Inc. He has written several books and articles on state politics and elections, and is the coauthor of State and Local Politics: Institutions and Reform (now in its 4th edition). What follows is the text of an email interview on Florida Politics today.
Less than two months from Election Day, it's still not clear Donald Trump's nomination is dragging down more House Republicans than were already vulnerable. Democrats are about to launch on a ferocious ad campaign to link Republicans to their nominee, but polling on both sides shows they have a long way to go to erase most GOP incumbents' leads. Democrats would need to win 30 GOP seats for a...
As the presidential campaign enters its final stretch, many people have begun to ask me: "What size margin would Hillary Clinton need to win the White House by in order for Democrats to win back the House?"
Overall, the House landscape has been remarkably stable compared to the past five election cycles, when plenty of races came "on to the board" in the final months. But based on recent developments, as well as the latest public and private polling, we are revising our ratings in eight races. These changes don't clearly favor either party: four are in Democrats' direction, and four reflect...
Donald Trump had a terrible June and July. Hillary Clinton had a terrible mid to late August. Both were victims of self-inflicted wounds - one attacked a Gold Star family the other set up a private email server and deleted loads of emails that are now coming to light. The polls, which once showed a big Clinton lead, have narrowed.
Terry Madonna is director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College and director of the F&M College Poll. His books include Political Pennsylvania: The New Century. What follows is the text of an email interview on Pennsylvania politics today.
The start of Labor Day weekend, the traditional beginning of the general election, is a good time to take stock of the 2016 campaign. As of Thursday at noon, Hillary Clinton was ahead of Donald Trump by 4.9 percentage points, 46.8 to 41.9 percent, in the RealClearPolitics averages of major national polls in the two-way trial heats; up by 4.2 points in the three-way,...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Two Special Elections Add Suspense to MidtermsApril 25, 2017
Two congressional special elections in as many weeks make clear that while the Republican Party is not in a free fall, things are not copacetic, either. Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes won last week’s special election in Kansas’s 4th District to fill the vacancy created by Mike Pompeo’s nomination to head the CIA, but his 5-point victory was far short of the...Read more »
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