Indiana’s gubernatorial contest had to reboot this week. After Republican Gov. Mike Pence accepted Donald Trump’s offer to be his vice presidential running mate, the Central Committee of the state’s Republican Party had to select a new gubernatorial nominee since state law prohibits the incumbent for running for both offices. They settled on Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb.
Take your pick among the two major national polls released Monday morning: Either Donald Trump is ahead of Hillary Clinton by as much as 3 or 4 points, or the two are running dead even. It depends on whether you focus on the CBS News poll or the CNN/ORC survey, whether you include the Libertarian and Green Party candidates, and whether you push the undecided voters who...
With a one-two punch, Ted Cruz effectively launched his candidacy for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination. On Wednesday night, the senator from Texas took to the stage and urged party members not to stay home in November but to “stand and speak and vote your conscience,” a veiled suggestion that his own conscience would not allow him to vote for Donald Trump....
Like a swimmer caught in a rip-tide, I need to stop fighting this election and start going with it. I have spent most of this year trying to explain why things aren’t working out the way they are “supposed” to work. Instead, I need to appreciate the fluid and unprecedented nature of this election. This doesn’t mean that I throw out all I know and have learned over the years about campaign and...
The chaos inside Quicken Loans Arena - from a quashed delegate rebellion to Melania Trump's recycled words and Ted Cruz's saboteur turn - have dominated coverage of Cleveland this week. But outside the arena, the RNC's vibe felt eerie for what the city seemed to be missing: large, boisterous protests, crowded bars and restaurants, and GOP candidates in competitive House races - most of whom...
Democrats want to put as many Republican-held seats in play as possible. In a best case scenario it puts them in a strong position if a wave develops in the fall. At the very least, they hope it forces Republicans to devote resources to more races, spreading them thin.
The Republican National Convention is now underway, with the critical question being whether it can reconfigure a race that looks close in some polls but is really an uphill climb for Donald Trump. There’s no question that the Democratic Party is not in particularly good standing right now, with a very large swath of the electorate either disliking or distrusting Hillary Clinton, but the GOP...
Tragedy strikes again, this time in the south of France. The bloodshed in Nice was just as horrific as the assaults in Paris last November that killed 130. The Nice attack was spread over a much larger area
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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