Jump to Any Race
National Politics|By David Wasserman, June 24, 2016

Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls over Donald Trump, and has vastly more cash on hand. But when it comes to spending that cash, her campaign may be making a strategic miscalculation. The campaign and an allied super PAC have reserved $137 million of ads across eight states.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 24, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 20, 2016.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, June 22, 2016

There’s no doubt that Donald J. Trump has had a bad few weeks. His party remains split over his nomination. He fired his campaign manager and his campaign has less money in the bank than some state Senate candidates.

Florida Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, June 22, 2016

Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio has reversed his decision to retire from the Senate at the end of this Congress and will run for a second term. In doing so, he has breathed new life into the GOP's chances of holding the seat, but that doesn't mean that he has become anything more than the very slightest of favorites in November. The race will remain in the Toss Up column.

House Overview|By David Wasserman, June 21, 2016

Right now, most bettors foresee nine words that are the stuff of Republicans’ 2017 nightmares: “President Hillary Clinton and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.” But at least the House is safe for the GOP. It is, right?

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 21, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 17, 2016.

Political Books|By Michael Nelson, June 20, 2016

A proud disclaimer: Timothy S. Huebner, the author of Liberty and Union: The Civil War and American Constitutionalism, is my friend and colleague. One reason is that he writes and thinks so deeply and well about how history illuminates the present. In February Huebner’s op-ed in the New York Times shed needed light on the question of what historically has happened when a Supreme Court...

Florida House|By David Wasserman, June 17, 2016

This morning, Florida GOP Rep. David Jolly announced he is dropping his Senate bid to run for reelection to the House in FL-13, giving Republicans a credible path against former Gov. Charlie Crist, who will be the Democratic nominee. But he is still the underdog: a new court-ordered map unites St. Petersburg, making FL-13 four points more Democratic than it was in 2014. As a result, Crist is...

North Dakota Governor|By Jennifer Duffy, June 17, 2016

In August of last year, Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple announced that he would not seek a second full term, setting off the race to replace him.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

The Cook Political Report is...

  • A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

How Fake News Undermines Democracy

January 17, 2017

Al­most 130 years ago, Ger­man philo­soph­er Friedrich Ni­et­z­sche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a per­verse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made Pres­id­ent-elect Trump stronger this week.

Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »

Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
View Columns »

Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
View Columns »

The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
See Chart »
Read More »

The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

Download »