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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 13, 2016

There’s no doubt that the presidential race has tightened up, but the operative question is whether Don­ald Trump has caught up or even overtaken Hillary Clinton. Polls are coming in by the bushel, some traditionally reliable, others of dubious quality. The CNN/ORC poll released on Tuesday caught a lot of attention. The sample of all registered voters showed Clinton ahead by 3 points, 44 to 41...

Battleground States|By Michael Nelson, September 12, 2016

Daniel A. Smith is Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida and President of ElectionSmith, Inc. He has written several books and articles on state politics and elections, and is the coauthor of State and Local Politics: Institutions and Reform (now in its 4th edition). What follows is the text of an email interview on Florida Politics today. 

House Overview|By David Wasserman, September 12, 2016

Less than two months from Election Day, it's still not clear Donald Trump's nomination is dragging down more House Republicans than were already vulnerable. Democrats are about to launch on a ferocious ad campaign to link Republicans to their nominee, but polling on both sides shows they have a long way to go to erase most GOP incumbents' leads. Democrats would need to win 30 GOP seats for a...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, September 12, 2016

As the presidential campaign enters its final stretch, many people have begun to ask me: "What size margin would Hillary Clinton need to win the White House by in order for Democrats to win back the House?"

House Overview|By David Wasserman, September 9, 2016

Overall, the House landscape has been remarkably stable compared to the past five election cycles, when plenty of races came "on to the board" in the final months. But based on recent developments, as well as the latest public and private polling, we are revising our ratings in eight races. These changes don't clearly favor either party: four are in Democrats' direction, and four reflect...

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, September 9, 2016

The 2016 election is now a mere 59 days away, and while the presidential contest continues to be the headline act, the 34 Senate races on the ballot in November are now sharing the stage.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, September 8, 2016

Donald Trump had a terrible June and July. Hillary Clinton had a terrible mid to late August. Both were victims of self-inflicted wounds -  one attacked a Gold Star family the other set up a private email server and deleted loads of emails that are now coming to light. The polls, which once showed a big Clinton lead, have narrowed. 

Swing States|By Michael Nelson, September 7, 2016

Terry Madonna is director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College and director of the F&M College Poll. His books include Political Pennsylvania: The New Century. What follows is the text of an email interview on Pennsylvania politics today.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 6, 2016

The start of Labor Day week­end, the tra­di­tion­al be­gin­ning of the gen­er­al elec­tion, is a good time to take stock of the 2016 cam­paign. As of Thursday at noon, Hil­lary Clin­ton was ahead of Don­ald Trump by 4.9 per­cent­age points, 46.8 to 41.9 per­cent, in the Real­Clear­Polit­ics av­er­ages of ma­jor na­tion­al polls in the two-way tri­al heats; up by 4.2 points in the three-way,...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Two Special Elections Add Suspense to Midterms

April 25, 2017

Two con­gres­sion­al spe­cial elec­tions in as many weeks make clear that while the Re­pub­lic­an Party is not in a free fall, things are not co­pacet­ic, either. Re­pub­lic­an state Treas­urer Ron Estes won last week’s spe­cial elec­tion in Kan­sas’s 4th Dis­trict to fill the va­cancy cre­ated by Mike Pom­peo’s nom­in­a­tion to head the CIA, but his 5-point vic­tory was far short of the...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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