Given the closeness of the last two presidential elections and the considerable polling data pointing to yet another tight contest, this November's election seems likely to be a squeaker. Yes, a Lo…
Check out the analysis of the changes in support and intensity for McCain and Obama between May and June in the Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll here. The data was compiled by Thom Riehle of…
One of this week's big political debates surrounds the decision of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., to eschew public financing, a decision that many critics say constitutes him breaking a campaign promise and exposes him to allegations of hypocrisy. It's a fair guess that an impartial jury might well convict him if this was a criminal offense, rather than a commonplace activity in American politics. A…
There is a danger in writing three days later about Tim Russert's tragically premature passing on Friday. To quote the cliche that "everything has been said, but not everyone has said it" seems appropriate. Of course, Tim deserves all the accolades that have been offered him. He was brilliant, with an incredibly creative and analytical mind. He worked like a fiend with a diligence and thoroughnes…
The term "50-state strategy" is getting tossed around pretty liberally these days, particularly by the presidential campaign of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. The campaign is, of course, promoting the impression that he will be competing, more or less, in every state in the union in contrast with the norm of a dozen or so states getting virtually all of the attention. Few would deny the proposition t…
As her odds of getting the Democratic presidential nomination got longer and longer over the past few months, there have been increasing calls for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., to drop her bid for the sake of the party. Those pleas were wrong and unfair. When was the last time a presidential candidate who was still consistently winning primaries and getting healthy numbers of votes asked t…
Much like a car whose gears shift poorly, this presidential contest is making a rather awkward transition to its general election phase. Nevertheless, as it turns into a competition between John McCain and Barack Obama, the race for 270 Electoral College votes is worth a hard look. Keep in mind how relatively static voting patterns tend to be: In the 2004 presidential election, 47 states ended up…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the TeamJanuary 20, 2017
The general parameters are already well known. In November, Americans elected a president who had no government experience of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy issues and had a proclivity to shoot from the hip, saying whatever came to mind, working off of instinct rather than expertise. We have elected outsiders before, but they have been the governor...Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »
Amy Walter, National Editor
Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
Read More »
The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »