It was hard to hear both second-guessing and criticism of President Obama's decision to go on ESPN to discuss his picks for the NCAA men's basketball tournament and to appear on "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno." Add a rather unusual taping for Sunday night's "60 Minutes" and it was one of the most unusual weeks of presidential television appearances to date. It was at least the most unusual for a…
Just as the economic news was relentlessly negative until the last few days, poll numbers for Republicans were horrific for months. So the GOP should be heartened by the first encouraging polling news it has received perhaps since Lehman Brothers defaulted in mid-September: Republicans have pulled even with Democrats on the generic congressional ballot test, according to a survey by a respected pa…
No matter the political question these days, the answer invariably seems to be another question: "How will the economy be doing?" Can Democrats hang on to their current levels in the House and Senate? Depends on the economy. Can Democrats hold the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia this November? Again, depends on the economy. How long will President Obama's honeymoon last? Yes, it depends o…
Here are two good, but somewhat contradictory questions for consideration at the tables in the Longworth Cafeteria. First, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average staging something of a comeback in the last week, is it too soon to say that the economy has begun to turn around? Second, will politically tone-deaf executives at the American International Group make President Obama's efforts to rescue…
While most pundits with an eye to 2010 possess a laser-like focus on both Obama’s approval ratings and the numbers on Wall Street, number crunchers at both campaign committees are assuredly poring over somewhat unrelated data to prepare for the midterms. Specifically, they are wondering just how much Democrats stand to lose from the fact that Obama’s name won’t appear on any ballots in November 2…
The poll numbers tell the story. President Obama's job-approval ratings soared after his impressive February 24 speech to a joint session of Congress, which drew praise from virtually all but his most partisan and vociferous critics. The first polling by the Gallup Organization conducted after the president's speech pegged his approval rating at 67 percent, up from 59 percent and just 2 points sh…
Whether or not you believe President Obama's approval ratings are inextricably tied to the post-stimulus performance of the economy, you can bet voter attitudes concerning the new president will have a strong influence on congressional election fortunes next year. The $64,000 question is, just what kind of influence will it be? Of course, the answer is unknowable this early in the campaign season…
My guess is that I was not alone when I cringed late last month upon opening my 401(k) retirement plan statement for the previous quarter, nor when I winced this week as the stock market plummeted to a 12-year low. At least health club stocks should be surging. After all, a lot of us need to develop healthier habits: With our retirement savings just a fraction of what they were a year ago, we will…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
GOP Divisions Doomed Health Care BillJuly 25, 2017
The collapse of the Senate Republican health care bill isn’t all that complicated and shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Like some bad marriages, you can chalk it up to “irreconcilable differences.” The Senate Republican Conference includes very conservative members who to their marrow believe in minimalist government, especially when it involves health care. But it also includes senators...Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »
Amy Walter, National Editor
Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
Read More »
The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »