The 2008 presidential campaign is entering a critical phase. Yeah, political analysts say that all the time. But right now, it happens to be true. The bounces have finished bouncing, and this race has returned to even. Republican presidential nominee John McCain's post-convention momentum has run out of steam. In fact, no one seems to have momentum for the time being. It's pretty clear that Demo…
It has been almost two weeks since the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. It's now clear that while Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois got a bounce out of the Democratic gathering in Denver, Sen. John McCain of Arizona -- or maybe I should say his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- got a bigger one out of the GOP event in St. Paul, Minn. Polls seem to show that the bounces have se…
Indiana Governor: Playing Catch Up Recent polling suggests that while former Rep. and USDA Under Secretary Jill Long Thompson was battling architect Jim Schellinger for the Democratic nomination in the May primary, Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels was getting a real head start on the general election campaign. The Democratic primary was competitive, and the candidates had the added challenge of…
Let the games begin. This Tuesday’s primaries pretty much wrapped up the Congressional primary season, with the notable exception of Louisiana’s intra-party contests, which were delayed by Hurricane Gustav. Republicans had reason to cheer the finale: their most electable candidate prevailed in New Hampshire’s 1st CD and a DCCC-endorsed candidate lost to a weak opponent in New York’s 26th CD. But o…
What do we know and what do we not know? The second question is easier. We obviously do not know what is going to happen over the next 55 days until the election. Little has been predictable so far…
As John McCain prepares to accept his party's presidential nomination tonight, Democrat Barack Obama is 5 to 8 percentage points ahead in the latest polls, making the Republican an underdog but hardly a long shot. This lead is real but not insurmountable. Obama is ahead in a lot of states by relatively small margins. Presidential nominees have few opportunities to speak directly to the American p…
Last night on my way back from the convention, I had a few moments to reflect on Gov. Sarah Palin's speech. She did a nice job, it was a good speech and it was well delivered. The mood and atmosphere in the Excel Energy Center was very strange. Delegates, alternates and activists were really pumped about Gov. Palin. They loved her life story and they loved what she represents. These sentiment…
There are a dozen ways to slice and dice this year's electorate and how it breaks down. Indeed, every pollster and analyst seems to do it a bit differently. One way is to think of a stool with four legs. The first and easiest-to-predict leg this year is the African-American vote. Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is incredibly strong among black voters. RT Strategies and Cook Politica…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
A Presidency Headed in the Wrong DirectionMarch 28, 2017
Nobody knows where this nascent Donald Trump presidency is going. New administrations start off with an infinite number of potential trajectories, but this one is even more unpredictable than others. Trump could still turn out to be a successful president. As an American, I certainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thousand cuts.”Read more »
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