Jump to Any Race
National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 28, 2008

Given the closeness of the last two presidential elections and the considerable polling data pointing to yet another tight contest, this November's election seems likely to be a squeaker. Yes, a Lo…

Presidential Overview|June 26, 2008

Check out the analysis of the changes in support and intensity for McCain and Obama between May and June in the Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll here. The data was compiled by Thom Riehle of…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 24, 2008

One of this week's big political debates surrounds the decision of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., to eschew public financing, a decision that many critics say constitutes him breaking a campaign promise and exposes him to allegations of hypocrisy. It's a fair guess that an impartial jury might well convict him if this was a criminal offense, rather than a commonplace activity in American politics. A…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 21, 2008

It finally dawned on me that white Baby Boomers are the group that is really hurting Barack Obama. Of all people, the generation that brought us the Vietnam War protests and the Summer of Love is prov…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 17, 2008

There is a danger in writing three days later about Tim Russert's tragically premature passing on Friday. To quote the cliche that "everything has been said, but not everyone has said it" seems appropriate. Of course, Tim deserves all the accolades that have been offered him. He was brilliant, with an incredibly creative and analytical mind. He worked like a fiend with a diligence and thoroughnes…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 14, 2008

In much the same way that people questioned whether conservatives would coalesce behind John McCain once he locked up the GOP presidential nomination, others are now asking whether Democrats (particul…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 10, 2008

The term "50-state strategy" is getting tossed around pretty liberally these days, particularly by the presidential campaign of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. The campaign is, of course, promoting the impression that he will be competing, more or less, in every state in the union in contrast with the norm of a dozen or so states getting virtually all of the attention. Few would deny the proposition t…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 3, 2008

As her odds of getting the Democratic presidential nomination got longer and longer over the past few months, there have been increasing calls for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., to drop her bid for the sake of the party. Those pleas were wrong and unfair. When was the last time a presidential candidate who was still consistently winning primaries and getting healthy numbers of votes asked t…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 3, 2008

Much like a car whose gears shift poorly, this presidential contest is making a rather awkward transition to its general election phase. Nevertheless, as it turns into a competition between John McCain and Barack Obama, the race for 270 Electoral College votes is worth a hard look. Keep in mind how relatively static voting patterns tend to be: In the 2004 presidential election, 47 states ended up…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

The Cook Political Report is...

  • A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

A Loud-Mouthed Fan Becomes Manager of the Team

January 20, 2017

The gen­er­al para­met­ers are already well known. In Novem­ber, Amer­ic­ans elec­ted a pres­id­ent who had no gov­ern­ment ex­per­i­ence of any kind. He was clearly not well-versed in policy is­sues and had a pro­cliv­ity to shoot from the hip, say­ing whatever came to mind, work­ing off of in­stinct rather than ex­pert­ise. We have elec­ted out­siders be­fore, but they have been the gov­ernor...

Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »

Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
View Columns »

Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
View Columns »

The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
See Chart »
Read More »

The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

Download »