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Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, August 21, 2008

The chatter about whether Democrats can pick up enough seats in November to hit the magic number of 60 and a filibuster-proof majority is getting louder, and is likely to be the subject of much discussion at the Democratic National Convention next week in Denver. But, the discussion needs to go a step further and address the question of whether 60 seats necessarily produces 60 votes, the number n…

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, August 7, 2008

As the scandal surrounding Sen. Larry Craig’s arrest unfolded nearly a year ago, MSNBC’s Tom Curry wrote, “…it now looks possible that in next year’s elections the Democrats just might attain the 60 s…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 5, 2008

What is this presidential election about? According to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, it's about Barack Obama, not John McCain or really even a choice between the two men. As pollster P…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 29, 2008

It's too early to say with certainty, but the Gallup daily tracking polls are suggesting that Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., benefited from his nine-day trip to Afghanistan, the Middle East and Europe as…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 26, 2008

This is a strange time in the presidential campaign, a hiatus between the intense skirmishes for the nominations and the battle for the White House. It is a time when voters have largely tuned out the campaign to get on with their lives before returning for another round of the total immersion that they experienced during the hard-fought primary season. Sure, voters glance at the evening news or…

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, July 24, 2008

As filing deadlines close and primaries produce nominees, it becomes abundantly clear that some races are simply over, and it’s time to cross them off the list of contests to keep tabs on. In other words, it’s time to put them to bed. Yes, the election isn’t for another 102 days, but there are just some races pitting challengers so weak, and in some cases, so bizarre against nearly invincible in…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 19, 2008

One of the less pleasant aspects of writing a political column when one party is having a particularly grim year is that the story gets so repetitive. Some years, the Democrats are in the political toilet. This year, the Republicans are in that unenviable position. In the presidential race, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain is behind but still very competitive. For the GOP, that is the b…

House Overview|By David Wasserman, July 17, 2008

Put yourself in the House GOP's shoes for a minute. Just about every time you've thought things couldn't get any worse this year, they have. Think about it: first, your financial deficit has just kept growing after an accounting scandal at the NRCC uncovered record committee debt. Then, there was that string of unthinkable special election defeats. And, to top it off, after one of your five-term i…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 15, 2008

One of my least favorite parlor games being played these days is trying to guess who Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Barack Obama, D-Ill., will select to be their presidential running mates. It is a pointless exercise, yet it is the hottest topic around. There are dozens of factors that must be taken into consideration, such as personal, political and ideological compatibility, and whether that p…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Trump’s Fine-Tuned Machine Runs Like an Oil-Burning Jalopy

February 21, 2017

As a can­did­ate, Don­ald Trump thor­oughly en­joyed dis­mant­ling and tor­tur­ing the Re­pub­lic­an wing of the Re­pub­lic­an Party. But now that chaos, tur­moil, and in­eptitude have be­come the watch­words for his White House—not­with­stand­ing his as­ser­tion Thursday that it “is run­ning like a fine-tuned ma­chine”—the tar­gets of his barbs were giv­ing each oth­er “I told you so”...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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