The chatter about whether Democrats can pick up enough seats in November to hit the magic number of 60 and a filibuster-proof majority is getting louder, and is likely to be the subject of much discussion at the Democratic National Convention next week in Denver. But, the discussion needs to go a step further and address the question of whether 60 seats necessarily produces 60 votes, the number n…
This is a strange time in the presidential campaign, a hiatus between the intense skirmishes for the nominations and the battle for the White House. It is a time when voters have largely tuned out the campaign to get on with their lives before returning for another round of the total immersion that they experienced during the hard-fought primary season. Sure, voters glance at the evening news or…
As filing deadlines close and primaries produce nominees, it becomes abundantly clear that some races are simply over, and it’s time to cross them off the list of contests to keep tabs on. In other words, it’s time to put them to bed. Yes, the election isn’t for another 102 days, but there are just some races pitting challengers so weak, and in some cases, so bizarre against nearly invincible in…
One of the less pleasant aspects of writing a political column when one party is having a particularly grim year is that the story gets so repetitive. Some years, the Democrats are in the political toilet. This year, the Republicans are in that unenviable position. In the presidential race, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain is behind but still very competitive. For the GOP, that is the b…
Put yourself in the House GOP's shoes for a minute. Just about every time you've thought things couldn't get any worse this year, they have. Think about it: first, your financial deficit has just kept growing after an accounting scandal at the NRCC uncovered record committee debt. Then, there was that string of unthinkable special election defeats. And, to top it off, after one of your five-term i…
One of my least favorite parlor games being played these days is trying to guess who Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Barack Obama, D-Ill., will select to be their presidential running mates. It is a pointless exercise, yet it is the hottest topic around. There are dozens of factors that must be taken into consideration, such as personal, political and ideological compatibility, and whether that p…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Trump’s Fine-Tuned Machine Runs Like an Oil-Burning JalopyFebruary 21, 2017
As a candidate, Donald Trump thoroughly enjoyed dismantling and torturing the Republican wing of the Republican Party. But now that chaos, turmoil, and ineptitude have become the watchwords for his White House—notwithstanding his assertion Thursday that it “is running like a fine-tuned machine”—the targets of his barbs were giving each other “I told you so”...Read more »
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