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Natoinal Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 16, 2007

This must be a tremendously frustrating time for Republican members of Congress, particularly those in potentially competitive re-election fights next fall. Is an expansion of a health care program…

House Overview|By David Wasserman, October 11, 2007

House Editor David Wasserman explains why four districts are moving into closer competition at the outset of 2007's fourth quarter. In Indiana, the insistence of Rep. Julia Carson (D-IN-07) on seeking reelection and the entry of former GOP Rep. Mike Sodrel into the race against Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN-09) complicate Democrats' efforts to hold a majority of the Hoosier delegation beyond 2008. Republi…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 9, 2007

Just a few weeks after Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast in August 2005, a veteran Republican strategist remarked to me, "I am really worried about whether we can hold our majorities next year." Recent polling has shown a generic preference for Democrats, and a weakening of Republicans' traditional dominance on national security issues. He was the first person to suggest such a thing to me du…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 6, 2007

Since winning their majority status in November, Democratic leaders in Congress have been struggling to find the right approach to opposing the war in Iraq. A vocal segment of their party wants out of…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 2, 2007

The first hints of third-quarter fundraising figures for the presidential campaigns have leaked out, something that will dominate political talk over the next few days. Edwards is now a longer shot…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 29, 2007

Few things get inside-the-Beltway juices flowing more than the prospect of partisan fratricide. The latest round of political infighting broke into view on September 21 in the Politico. John Bresnahan and Patrick O'Connor reported that Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma was threatening to resign as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee if House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio f…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 18, 2007

Hillary Rodham Clinton's dominance of the Democratic presidential contest and the confusion in the fight for the GOP nomination are both confirmed by a new set of polls, conducted in Iowa, New Hampshi…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 11, 2007

When Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) said earlier this year that his party would be fortunate to break even in the 2008 elections -- holding onto 49 seats -- the shock of a party leader sounding anything but optimistic was jarring. The way this is playing out, Republicans would be very lucky to break even in the Senate next year. But as events have unfolded over the last eight months,…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 8, 2007

If a cartoonist were trying to depict the battles for the 2008 presidential nominations, the Democratic picture might show Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as a locomotive hurtling along beneath the question, "Can anyone derail her?" and the GOP picture might depict the Republican candidates as contestants on Survivor. But the interesting question about Clinton really isn't whether someone, theoretica…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans

February 28, 2017

The two-thirds of Re­pub­lic­ans in the House who have nev­er served when the GOP held ma­jor­it­ies in the House and Sen­ate along­side a GOP pres­id­ent can be for­giv­en for not re­mem­ber­ing the last time they were sim­il­arly situ­ated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Demo­crats were last in that situ­ation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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