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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 12, 2008

In some ways, it is easy to dismiss what happened in the midterm elections and to chalk up Democrats' gains to voters' displeasure over the war in Iraq, scandals, and a feeling that Congress has grown…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 8, 2008

Conservatives have been surprisingly muted in their criticism of John McCain ever since The New York Times ran an article on February 21 raising questions about the close friendship between the maveri…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 8, 2008

Should Republicans want to hold onto the presidency in 2008? A good case can be made that the Republican Party would be a stronger, better party five years from today if it reconstituted itself now…

Column.national-journal-column|April 1, 2008

By almost every available gauge, Republicans are in deep trouble. Except, that is, for the one that counts most -- the presidential election trial heat. The GOP has serious problems, no doubt. Acco…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 1, 2008

This year I will celebrate -- actually, observe is probably a better word -- the fifth anniversary of my 50th birthday. Unless Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina and a few other places by landslide margins, her donors will stop giving and her campaign will grind to a halt. Perhaps with advancing years we become a bit less tolerant -- for me, it's less patience with the…

House Overview|By David Wasserman, March 27, 2008

Even as the race for the presidency thunders overhead, House Editor David Wasserman takes a look at the big picture in the lower chamber. Usually, it is the party in the minority that seeks to "expand the playing field" of competitive races. So far, the greatest irony involving House races in 2008 may be that the opposite is true today. In 2006, an essential ingredient in Democrats' successful c…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 25, 2008

You have to hand it to the state of Florida and its Democratic Party: When something is just too darned difficult for them, like, say, holding an unscheduled election, they just admit it. There's something to be said for knowing one's limitations, as Clint Eastwood's character pointed out in Magnum Force. Over the past five years, at least 16 congressional districts around the country had unexpec…

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, March 20, 2008

The process of rating Senate races--or any race for that matter--is a mix of science and art. There more science--quantitative data like polling, voting patterns, candidate quality and fundraising--there is in the equation, the easier it is to rate a race. But, when there isn't much hard data or a set of conflicting factors, the process becomes much more dictated by art--taking everything we kno…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 18, 2008

If we've learned anything in political journalism this year, it should be that absolutes are absolutely to be avoided. Hillary Rodham Clinton might well win more delegates than Barack Obama in the…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Two Special Elections Add Suspense to Midterms

April 25, 2017

Two con­gres­sion­al spe­cial elec­tions in as many weeks make clear that while the Re­pub­lic­an Party is not in a free fall, things are not co­pacet­ic, either. Re­pub­lic­an state Treas­urer Ron Estes won last week’s spe­cial elec­tion in Kan­sas’s 4th Dis­trict to fill the va­cancy cre­ated by Mike Pom­peo’s nom­in­a­tion to head the CIA, but his 5-point vic­tory was far short of the...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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