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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 5, 2007

While supporters of the 10 current Republican candidates for president are holding their breath, waiting to see what impact the entry of former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., will have on their favorite contenders, many others are simply asking how he will do. The trail to the presidency is not an easy one, and any individual who shies away from rigorous work should seriously reconsider entering th…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 5, 2007

Given how early the 2008 presidential race started, it's no surprise that we're already swimming in national polls. But too often the surveys that attract the most attention are the outliers, those th…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 2, 2007

With the recent disclosure that Pentagon war planners are working on options to begin withdrawing U.S. troops next year, we got a glimpse of America's Iraq policy of the not-too-distant future. Reveal…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 26, 2007

In five weeks, the presidential campaigns must close their books on the second quarter and begin preparing their reports to the Federal Election Commission on fundraising, spending, and cash-on-hand. Although it would be an exaggeration to say that this will be a make-or-break moment for any of the campaigns, their second-quarter reports will be important windows into how well each has been able t…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 17, 2007

Samuel Johnson wrote, "Second marriages are the triumph of hope over experience." As the 2008 presidential campaign unfolds, a curiously large number of voters in each of the two major parties seem to be banking more on hope than experience. Romantic idealism is hardly new in American politics, but the picture this cycle looks a bit more dramatic than usual. Within the Democratic Party, national…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 15, 2007

Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel's (R) recent remark on CBS' "Face the Nation" that he would consider running on an independent presidential ticket with New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) is intriguing because they complement each other so well. Friends say Bloomberg could easily drop a billion on a presidential campaign without missing it too much. Bloomberg offers up the executive experience t…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 12, 2007

The war in Iraq is probably the biggest single variable that will influence the outcome of the 2008 presidential and congressional elections. It is likely to be a more important factor than whom each party nominates for president or how the parties fare at candidate recruitment and fundraising. And Iraq will be a liability for Republican candidates, just as it was last year. The 2006 election mat…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 8, 2007

Analyzing politics can be viewed as a science or as an art. Likewise, presidential campaigns can be evaluated objectively, based on quantitative measurements, or subjectively, based on judgment, experience, and intuition. Neither way is perfect, but all too often people look at elections entirely through a subjective prism, and they can sometimes end up drawing rather odd conclusions. Fundraising…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 8, 2007

Perhaps the most extraordinary thing about this anything-but-ordinary election season is that in the wake of a monumental midterm election, the 2008 congressional elections have already been eclipsed by the unfolding presidential campaign, despite Democrats' narrow margins in the House and particularly in the Senate. A big reason for the lack of attention on House and Senate races is that many of…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

How Fake News Undermines Democracy

January 17, 2017

Al­most 130 years ago, Ger­man philo­soph­er Friedrich Ni­et­z­sche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a per­verse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made Pres­id­ent-elect Trump stronger this week.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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