This must be a tremendously frustrating time for Republican members of Congress, particularly those in potentially competitive re-election fights next fall. Is an expansion of a health care program…
House Editor David Wasserman explains why four districts are moving into closer competition at the outset of 2007's fourth quarter. In Indiana, the insistence of Rep. Julia Carson (D-IN-07) on seeking reelection and the entry of former GOP Rep. Mike Sodrel into the race against Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN-09) complicate Democrats' efforts to hold a majority of the Hoosier delegation beyond 2008. Republi…
Just a few weeks after Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast in August 2005, a veteran Republican strategist remarked to me, "I am really worried about whether we can hold our majorities next year." Recent polling has shown a generic preference for Democrats, and a weakening of Republicans' traditional dominance on national security issues. He was the first person to suggest such a thing to me du…
Few things get inside-the-Beltway juices flowing more than the prospect of partisan fratricide. The latest round of political infighting broke into view on September 21 in the Politico. John Bresnahan and Patrick O'Connor reported that Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma was threatening to resign as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee if House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio f…
When Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) said earlier this year that his party would be fortunate to break even in the 2008 elections -- holding onto 49 seats -- the shock of a party leader sounding anything but optimistic was jarring. The way this is playing out, Republicans would be very lucky to break even in the Senate next year. But as events have unfolded over the last eight months,…
If a cartoonist were trying to depict the battles for the 2008 presidential nominations, the Democratic picture might show Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as a locomotive hurtling along beneath the question, "Can anyone derail her?" and the GOP picture might depict the Republican candidates as contestants on Survivor. But the interesting question about Clinton really isn't whether someone, theoretica…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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