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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 10, 2007

Politics just doesn't get much more colorful and fascinating than it does in my home state of Louisiana. The latest escapade began when former Democratic Sen. John Breaux signaled that he is quite interested in going home to run for governor this year. That is, if Gov. Kathleen Blanco, also a Democrat, steps aside. The conventional wisdom in the state is that Blanco can't get re-elected. Even mos…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 6, 2007

One of the most common topics of political conversation these days is "what in the world is going on in the fight for the Republican presidential nomination?" Recent polls show that the lead for forme…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 3, 2007

State legislatures are falling all over themselves these days to move their states' presidential primaries up to February 5, making for one very Super Tuesday. Nine states, including Missouri, are set to hold their primaries on that date. At least 11 more, including such major prizes as California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Texas, may do so as well, raising the prospect that as ma…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 1, 2007

If the 'inside the Beltway' conventional wisdom is to be believed, actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson will jump into the Republican presidential nomination fight before too long, filling a…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 27, 2007

Just as baseball fans tend to be hooked on statistics -- and the more arcane the better -- political aficionados often look to historical precedents and analogous situations for clues of future events, whether truly applicable or not. All in all, it's not a bad thing, as long as one does not become a prisoner of history. But this presidential campaign might be so different that many past patterns…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 27, 2007

If history teaches anything about presidential elections, it is that there is no foolproof predictor of who will win either party's nomination. A case can be made for looking at the national polls of…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 17, 2007

It's not hard to see that the Republican Party has problems -- and to understand why. Just over three months ago, the GOP took a beating in the midterm elections, losing the majorities it had held for…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 13, 2007

Last month I wrote a column suggesting that "the Republican brand" had been damaged over the last year, and I quoted several Republicans who agreed with that proposition. The Iraq war had certainly…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 13, 2007

Part of me hated to see Barack Obama jump into the presidential race. Don't get me wrong: I have nothing against the senator from Illinois. But I had a theory about how the contest for the Democratic nomination would play out, and I worried that Obama's entry could complicate things. My theory was that the race would largely be a referendum on Hillary Rodham Clinton and on whether her party think…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Two Special Elections Add Suspense to Midterms

April 25, 2017

Two con­gres­sion­al spe­cial elec­tions in as many weeks make clear that while the Re­pub­lic­an Party is not in a free fall, things are not co­pacet­ic, either. Re­pub­lic­an state Treas­urer Ron Estes won last week’s spe­cial elec­tion in Kan­sas’s 4th Dis­trict to fill the va­cancy cre­ated by Mike Pom­peo’s nom­in­a­tion to head the CIA, but his 5-point vic­tory was far short of the...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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