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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 19, 2006

Anyone who can see some overarching message in Tuesday's primary results must have reading glasses that are more powerful than mine. Perhaps most important, each of the two major parties got the Senate nominee who gives it the best chance to hold on in a key state. National Republican officials got their wish in Rhode Island, where moderate Lincoln Chafee won renomination. National Democratic offi…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 19, 2006

So, has this election changed or not? The conventional wisdom in Washington certainly seems to have changed in the last week or two, from "Republicans are toast" and the GOP majority in the House is h…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 12, 2006

Since this is the first "Off To The Races" column since Congress returned from its August recess, a bit of stage setting would seem to be in order. Only an ABC News poll, in which 42 percent approv…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 12, 2006

Republicans are facing a motivation deficit unlike anything they've seen at least since 1982 and probably since 1974, the post-Watergate midterm. Labor Day weekend marks the unofficial beginning of…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 9, 2006

One aspect of this election cycle that has fascinated me for months is the generation gap that has developed among experienced political operatives and professional election analysts. As a general rule, election-watchers under the age of 40, regardless of their party or ideology, see the contest for control of the House as fairly close. They foresee Republicans' losing at least 10 seats, but cert…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 12, 2006

Amid all of the sophisticated -- and more than a little hyperventilated -- analysis on Tuesday night after the primary defeats of Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., Rep. Cynthia McKinney, D-Ga., and Rep. Joe Schwarz, R-Mich., I received an e-mail from a friend who is a senior national political correspondent for a major national newspaper: "If I were an incumbent with the least bit of worries, I'd be po…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 7, 2006

Today will be the most watched day in politics this year, and not just for political aficionados, but for anyone with more than a casual interest in politics. The Connecticut Democratic Senate primary between incumbent Joe Lieberman and challenger Ned Lamont is drawing an extraordinary level of interest, as well it should. Polling by Quinnipiac University showed Lamont with a 13-point lead 10 day…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 5, 2006

Time is running out for Republicans. Unless something dramatic happens before Election Day, Democrats will take control of the House. And the chances that they'll seize the Senate are rising toward 50…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 1, 2006

Anyone who feels certain that Republicans will keep their majority in the House or that Democrats will regain control of the chamber ought to be carrying pompoms and a megaphone. That person is cheerleading, not analyzing. Sure, you can make reasonably convincing arguments that Republicans will retain control of both chambers. But you can also make reasonably convincing arguments that Democrats w…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans

February 28, 2017

The two-thirds of Re­pub­lic­ans in the House who have nev­er served when the GOP held ma­jor­it­ies in the House and Sen­ate along­side a GOP pres­id­ent can be for­giv­en for not re­mem­ber­ing the last time they were sim­il­arly situ­ated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Demo­crats were last in that situ­ation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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