Anyone who can see some overarching message in Tuesday's primary results must have reading glasses that are more powerful than mine. Perhaps most important, each of the two major parties got the Senate nominee who gives it the best chance to hold on in a key state. National Republican officials got their wish in Rhode Island, where moderate Lincoln Chafee won renomination. National Democratic offi…
One aspect of this election cycle that has fascinated me for months is the generation gap that has developed among experienced political operatives and professional election analysts. As a general rule, election-watchers under the age of 40, regardless of their party or ideology, see the contest for control of the House as fairly close. They foresee Republicans' losing at least 10 seats, but cert…
Amid all of the sophisticated -- and more than a little hyperventilated -- analysis on Tuesday night after the primary defeats of Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., Rep. Cynthia McKinney, D-Ga., and Rep. Joe Schwarz, R-Mich., I received an e-mail from a friend who is a senior national political correspondent for a major national newspaper: "If I were an incumbent with the least bit of worries, I'd be po…
Today will be the most watched day in politics this year, and not just for political aficionados, but for anyone with more than a casual interest in politics. The Connecticut Democratic Senate primary between incumbent Joe Lieberman and challenger Ned Lamont is drawing an extraordinary level of interest, as well it should. Polling by Quinnipiac University showed Lamont with a 13-point lead 10 day…
Anyone who feels certain that Republicans will keep their majority in the House or that Democrats will regain control of the chamber ought to be carrying pompoms and a megaphone. That person is cheerleading, not analyzing. Sure, you can make reasonably convincing arguments that Republicans will retain control of both chambers. But you can also make reasonably convincing arguments that Democrats w…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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