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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 28, 2007

Just over a month from now, members of Congress will be returning from their "Summer District Work Period," aka the August recess, ready to take on the legislative items remaining on their agenda as they head toward adjournment sometime in late fall. Politically speaking, however, September is more important than the final months of 2007. That month is when we will begin to see whether an unusuall…

House Overview|By David Wasserman, July 25, 2007

The task of unwrapping mid-year campaign fundraising reports usually reminds only the most wild-eyed election junkies of "Christmas in July." This year, it's congressional Democrats who seem to be having the most summer fun of all. And for good reason: a look at books at the end of the second quarter of 2007 reinforces the idea that being in the majority is the gift that keeps on giving.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 24, 2007

Monday's release marked the fourth consecutive ABC News/Washington Post poll [PDF] that found Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., with a lead of 15 or 16 points over Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in Dem…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 14, 2007

After several senior staffers resigned from Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign on Tuesday, many observers wondered, "When will McCain drop out?" The answer probably depends on the definition of "out." The beleaguered Arizona Republican will likely remain a candidate in the technical sense until the end of the year so that he can qualify for federal matching funds and pay off his campaign de…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 10, 2007

There aren't many better ways to contemplate the state of American politics than by standing in waders in a couple of feet of chilly water, fly-fishing on a beautiful Canadian stream. The funny thing about the Senate is that with less homogeneous electorates and six-year respites between elections, upsets are more frequent. While total concentration on the delivery and placement of the fly might…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 30, 2007

By this time next week, the political world will be awash in second-quarter fundraising numbers from the 2008 presidential campaigns. But this column's focus is on polling numbers -- the combined resu…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 26, 2007

It is incredibly interesting to look at the vastly different trajectories for each party's 2008 presidential nominating contests, with a dozen Republicans in one contest and eight Democratic candidate…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 24, 2007

Rudy Giuliani's quest for the Republican presidential nomination got off to an impressive start, with his national poll numbers rising from early 2006 through February of this year. At his peak, the f…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 19, 2007

As a dozen-and-a-half presidential candidates crisscross the country trying to vacuum as much money as they can before the June 30 deadline for the second-quarter FEC reporting period, they do so with a flurry of polls that are unquestionably shaping the attitudes of activists, party officials, political reporters and, most importantly, donors. If I were a betting man, my money for the GOP nod wo…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Tennessee  |  Governor  |  Haslam (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Kansas  |  Governor  |  Brownback (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Illinois  |  Governor  |  Rauner (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New Mexico  |  Governor  |  Martinez (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

New Jersey  |  Governor  |  Christie (R)

Likely D
Lean D

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under Trump

June 23, 2017

For con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans in the new norm of the Trump pres­id­ency, noth­ing is easy, and everything is hard. Rais­ing the debt ceil­ing in or­der to keep the gov­ern­ment from de­fault­ing on its debt is nor­mally easy; now it is hard. Passing an om­ni­bus budget bill to simply keep the gov­ern­ment op­er­at­ing (for­get the idea of passing the full bat­tery of 12 ap­pro­pri­ations...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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