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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 2, 2006

There is growing evidence that Republicans will face a voter turnout problem in the November midterm elections. The GOP faces not only enormous misgivings among voters about the war in Iraq, which…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 26, 2006

The last thing I wanted to do this week was to write yet another "President Bush and the Republicans are going down the toilet, and their majorities are doomed" column. But then two things changed:…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 25, 2006

Given how strong anti-Iraq war sentiments are, particularly in the Democratic Party, it's not that surprising that a Democratic senator who was a staunch and vocal early supporter of the war might face a competitive primary. What is a bit of a surprise is that another Democratic senator who also was an early, strong and vocal supporter of the war not only does not have any serious competition for…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 25, 2006

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I feel compelled to report the latest signs that Republicans ought to be very worried about this fall's congressional elections. A Gallup Poll this wee…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 18, 2006

For years, the foundation of the Republican Party was built upon eight pillars of equal importance. Those pillars were (in no particular order): cutting taxes, reducing the size of government, balancing the budget and being fiscally responsible, creating a strong national defense, opposing communism, emphasizing free enterprise, getting tough on crime and emphasizing social issues. Over the last…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 15, 2006

As Sen. John McCain of Arizona begins moving to the right to maximize his chances of winning the 2008 Republican presidential nomination -- before making an equally inevitable move back toward the mid…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 11, 2006

The continuing gloomy numbers in national polls have raised the question of whether President Bush's problems, and by extension, his party's, have not only jelled but have hardened. In the latest C…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 4, 2006

The chances were close to zero that a 52-year-old white guy who is a registered independent and who has spent pretty much the last 33 years living and working inside the Capital Beltway would agree with all or most of what the two most prominent liberal Democratic bloggers in America, one 34, the other 41, would write in their scathing attack on Washington and the political establishment. In…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 1, 2006

Almost every day seems to bring a new storm warning for Republicans. The current national political climate is undeniably awful for their party. A report released last week by the Gallup Poll's Jef…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

How Fake News Undermines Democracy

January 17, 2017

Al­most 130 years ago, Ger­man philo­soph­er Friedrich Ni­et­z­sche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a per­verse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made Pres­id­ent-elect Trump stronger this week.

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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