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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 26, 2005

While President Bush and the Republican Party's public opinion problems are plain to see and easy to explain, there seems to be a strong sense of denial on the part of Democrats for why their poll num…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 19, 2005

Last week's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll proves to be a treasure trove of interesting and provocative data. It contains plenty that should worry Republicans. At the same time, though, these resul…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 16, 2005

The political impact of the news that White House senior adviser Karl Rove leaked the identity, if not the name, of CIA officer Valerie Plame is impossible to predict with any certainty. But this strange development is a timely reminder that while close 2006 midterm contests may well hinge on the "micro" particulars of each race, they could end up hinging on some "macro" national factor. One meth…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 12, 2005

Two weeks ago, I used this column to deliver a rather harsh critique of a Social Security package proposed by Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas, R-Calif., and several other House Republicans. I questioned their political judgment in proposing to use current Social Security surplus funds for the creation of private accounts. My argument, in a nutshell, was that after President Bush and so many o…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 30, 2005

It was a scene that would have seemed impossible a dozen years ago. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Newt Gingrich, sitting just a few feet apart, smiling, laughing, exchanging knowing grins, and generally acting like old pals. But unlike so many other odd-couple functions in this town, this wasn't a charity fundraiser cleverly designed to bring old adversaries together as bait for a good cause. It was…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 28, 2005

For those of you who might have been on vacation or otherwise distracted last week, House Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas, R-Calif., and a number of other House Republicans proposed the creation of private investment accounts to be funded out of the Social Security surplus. Hello, a Social Security surplus? Last time I checked, President Bush had given an impassioned State of the Union speec…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 25, 2005

Someday I may write a book about the 100 most repeated mistakes in politics. Without question, one will be comparing any person, place, thing, action, or circumstance to the Holocaust, Nazi Germany, the Gestapo, or Nazi concentration camps. At least once a year, a politician or group gets into hot water for making such a comparison. Although he apologized this week, no doubt Sen. Richard Durbin,…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 23, 2005

Many liberals and abortion-rights groups are apoplectic that President Bush has nominated John G. Roberts Jr., a 50-year-old judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, to succeed Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. Of course, few of the names that had been circulated as possible Bush picks would have been acceptable to the Left, or to Democrats generally. Indeed, many Democrats had…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 21, 2005

While there is some dispute over how far Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., intended to go in his statement Sunday about seeking the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008, it might have been one of the shrewder political moves that we've seen in a while. Biden, on CBS' "Face the Nation," told moderator Bob Schieffer that, "if, in fact, I think that I have a clear shot at winning the nomination by th…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

The Cook Political Report is...

  • A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans

February 28, 2017

The two-thirds of Re­pub­lic­ans in the House who have nev­er served when the GOP held ma­jor­it­ies in the House and Sen­ate along­side a GOP pres­id­ent can be for­giv­en for not re­mem­ber­ing the last time they were sim­il­arly situ­ated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Demo­crats were last in that situ­ation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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