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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 19, 2005

Regular readers of this column know that this space has not been particularly complimentary about the message and communication skills of Democratic congressional leaders in recent months. My "Vapid Response Team" column criticizing the pre-written State of the Union "responses" of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., was perhaps the harshest…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 16, 2005

One way to look at the 2006 Senate races is to consider each party's objective. For Democrats, it's winning the six seats they need to take the majority. For Republicans, it's netting the five seats that would give them a filibuster-proof Senate on strict party-line votes. So how would either party go about picking up five or six seats? Is a gain of that magnitude even plausible? At this point, j…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 13, 2005

Incumbent Hillary Rodham Clinton will undoubtedly be the prohibitive favorite in New York's Senate race next year, whether her Republican challenger is Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro or Nixon son-in-law Edward Cox. Yet the GOP nomination is definitely worth having. With Clinton sporting a 63 percent statewide job-approval rating in the latest Quinnipiac University poll (of 1,4…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 12, 2005

President Bush already is facing a full plate of problems -- record federal budget and national trade deficits, Medicare financing issues, a Social Security personal account proposal that is floundering in Congress, dropping job approval numbers and record high gasoline prices. Next in the queue, in terms of really big issues, is dealing with taxes, which appears to be every bit as daunting as Soc…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 6, 2005

For Republicans, the narrowness of their party's victory in Tuesday's special election in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District is a wake-up call that gives them plenty of notice before November 2006 that they have very big problems in the Buckeye State. Next year's Ohio ballot will feature an open governorship, a vulnerable Senate Republican with problems in his own base, and up to eight GOP-held Ho…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 5, 2005

In a fascinating and provocative analysis of the 2004 elections, Michael Nelson, a political scientist at Rhodes College in Memphis, makes a strong case that last year's election was a clear departure from recent elections. In a just released book with chapters from eight other distinguished political scientists -- including the inimitable Gary C. Jacobson of the University of California, San Die…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 2, 2005

It's obvious why the national party committees hate special elections. They are volatile, unpredictable and take place outside the natural campaign rhythm -- often forcing committees to make campaign spending decisions long before they'd like. With nothing else on the ballot, voter turnout is often abysmally low, making polling particularly unreliable as it's extremely difficult to gauge just how…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 29, 2005

For true political junkies, nothing is more exciting than getting a whole new bunch of voting data to pore over and analyze. This week, Polidata's Clark Bensen's preliminary compilation of presidential results by each of the 435 congressional districts is political nirvana for congressional-race watchers. The new results show President Bush won the popular vote in 255 congressional districts, a 75…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 26, 2005

The strategies that both Republicans and Democrats employed to handle the case of Terri Schiavo, the brain-damaged Florida woman, were clearly driven directly by what happened in the 2004 elections.…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

How Fake News Undermines Democracy

January 17, 2017

Al­most 130 years ago, Ger­man philo­soph­er Friedrich Ni­et­z­sche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a per­verse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made Pres­id­ent-elect Trump stronger this week.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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