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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 11, 2006

The midsummer doldrums are hardly new in American politics and this year is surely no exception. If it weren't for Sen. Joe Lieberman's surprisingly aggressive Democratic primary challenge from cable…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 1, 2006

The fight for control of the House is getting more ink than the battle for control of the Senate, but several recent shifts in individual Senate races merit attention. All year, talk about the Democrats' chances of taking the Senate has focused on the five most endangered Republican incumbents. They are, roughly in order of vulnerability, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns of Montana, L…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 24, 2006

Now that President Bush's job-approval ratings have edged up to the high 30s and certain other indicators have also improved a bit for the GOP, are House Republicans in better shape than Democrats wer…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 17, 2006

Given the fickleness of public opinion, it's probably risky to say this, but it looks like President Bush's free fall has bottomed out, as have other key indicators that were trending against Republic…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 13, 2006

I guess it was in the mid-to-late 1980s, not too many years after I began meeting with congressional candidates, that I realized there was a perfect correlation between those candidates who mentioned…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 10, 2006

As fascinating as the 2006 midterm elections are for political aficionados, there is nothing like the 2008 presidential election to get their juices flowing. With strong personalities such as Sens. Hi…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 6, 2006

Today the eyes of the political world will be focused on northern San Diego County and the special election for the 50th District seat previously held by Republican Rep. Randy, "Duke" Cunningham, who…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 3, 2006

You might think that I would sympathize with House Speaker Dennis Hastert and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's bipartisan anger over the FBI search of the office of Rep. William Jefferson and their demands that the documents seized from the Rayburn House Office Building be returned to the Louisiana Democrat. After all, I have worked on or covered Capitol Hill for almost 34 years, and I believe…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 23, 2006

NEW ORLEANS -- On Friday morning, I took a cab from New Orleans International Airport to the French Quarter, and it was still obvious that the city had been hit by a hurricane. But, other than an unusually high number of "office space for lease" signs, there were few indications of Hurricane Katrina's magnitude until the Louisiana Superdome came into view. The building is still missing patches of…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Tennessee  |  Governor  |  Haslam (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Kansas  |  Governor  |  Brownback (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Illinois  |  Governor  |  Rauner (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New Mexico  |  Governor  |  Martinez (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

New Jersey  |  Governor  |  Christie (R)

Likely D
Lean D

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under Trump

June 23, 2017

For con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans in the new norm of the Trump pres­id­ency, noth­ing is easy, and everything is hard. Rais­ing the debt ceil­ing in or­der to keep the gov­ern­ment from de­fault­ing on its debt is nor­mally easy; now it is hard. Passing an om­ni­bus budget bill to simply keep the gov­ern­ment op­er­at­ing (for­get the idea of passing the full bat­tery of 12 ap­pro­pri­ations...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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