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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 4, 2006

A year ago, with Republican victories in the 2004 elections still fresh and with President Bush's job-approval ratings still above 50 percent, Democrats' chances of capturing the House looked fairly s…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 28, 2006

The Senate races in Hawaii and Missouri have taken interesting and potentially important turns. Of the two, the Aloha State's was the real shocker. Two-term Rep. Ed Case's January 19 announcement that he is challenging 81-year-old Sen. Daniel Akaka in Hawaii's September 23 Democratic primary certainly dropped jaws among political insiders in both Washington and Hawaii. Now in his second full ter…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 26, 2006

Just as predictably as the sun rising in the east and the swallows coming back to San Juan Capistrano, many are saying that President Bush's State of the Union address is the most important speech he…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 25, 2006

It is a virtual certainty that Republicans will lose House and Senate seats in the Nov. 7 midterm elections. The question is whether those losses will be small (single digits in the House, one or t…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 24, 2006

There are fascinating divisions of opinion over the odds of Democrats taking control of the U.S. House or Senate this November. The division is not between Democrats and Republicans or liberals and conservatives so much as whether one focuses on the race-by-race "micro-political" approach to analyzing races or the top-down "macro-political" method. A second divide appears along the lines of how l…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 20, 2006

I am deeply troubled by the tenor of current political discourse in this country. More and more Republicans don't just disagree with Democrats, they despise them -- and vice versa. People don't just challenge someone's views -- they challenge the other person's integrity. Enjoyable, informative, and civil discussions between people with different points of view are becoming rare. The most recent…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 14, 2006

Sometimes, individuals make decisions voluntarily; other times, decisions are forced upon them. Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's decision to permanently relinquish his leadership post and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's decision to depart at the end of the year will force congressional Republicans to make choices about significant changes in Hill leadership. House Republicans, of cour…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 10, 2006

As Americans start focusing -- at a distance -- on the 2008 presidential election, a new poll shows backers of both parties are divided over the kind of candidate they want their party to offer. Th…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 10, 2006

What a week! It started with Jack Abramoff's plea agreement and perp walks, followed by former Speaker Newt Gingrich's lecture to House Republicans on the need to clean up their act, and culminating with Texas Rep. Tom DeLay renouncing his claim on his old post as House majority leader and calling for a new election later this month. Abramoff's plea agreement was widely expected and DeLay's hold…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Two Special Elections Add Suspense to Midterms

April 25, 2017

Two con­gres­sion­al spe­cial elec­tions in as many weeks make clear that while the Re­pub­lic­an Party is not in a free fall, things are not co­pacet­ic, either. Re­pub­lic­an state Treas­urer Ron Estes won last week’s spe­cial elec­tion in Kan­sas’s 4th Dis­trict to fill the va­cancy cre­ated by Mike Pom­peo’s nom­in­a­tion to head the CIA, but his 5-point vic­tory was far short of the...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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