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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 2, 2005

It's obvious why the national party committees hate special elections. They are volatile, unpredictable and take place outside the natural campaign rhythm -- often forcing committees to make campaign spending decisions long before they'd like. With nothing else on the ballot, voter turnout is often abysmally low, making polling particularly unreliable as it's extremely difficult to gauge just how…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 29, 2005

For true political junkies, nothing is more exciting than getting a whole new bunch of voting data to pore over and analyze. This week, Polidata's Clark Bensen's preliminary compilation of presidential results by each of the 435 congressional districts is political nirvana for congressional-race watchers. The new results show President Bush won the popular vote in 255 congressional districts, a 75…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 26, 2005

The strategies that both Republicans and Democrats employed to handle the case of Terri Schiavo, the brain-damaged Florida woman, were clearly driven directly by what happened in the 2004 elections.…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 22, 2005

A very early preview of 2006 House races shows slim pickings for both sides. With just a handful of retirements -- and few competitive open seats on the horizon -- both sides are scrambling to find serious challengers to a dwindling field of vulnerable incumbents. With the caveat that unpredictable events could always impact the 2006 landscape, Republicans do not appear to be in danger of losing t…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 19, 2005

Washington-area political junkies may reside at the epicenter of the political universe, but opportunities to watch interesting and trulycompetitive Senate and House races in our own backyard have been few and far between. The 1994 Senate race in Virginia between Democratic incumbent Chuck Robb and Republican Oliver North was great political theater, as was Robb's losing effort to fend off George…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 15, 2005

The 2006 election cycle is just three months old, but the Senate race picture is beginning to take shape. Unlike 2004, when Democrats had one more seat up, had to fight the battle on largely Republican turf and had to defend five open seats in Southern states that President Bush carried in 2000 and again last November, the 2006 playing field looks much more even. Democrats must defend 18 seats --…

House Overview|By Charlie Cook, March 12, 2005

It's the time in the election cycle when the House campaign committees beat the bushes for top-flight candidates to run for the handful of seats that ought to be competitive next time around. And, like Christmas presents that get repackaged year after year, the same old districts get billed as prizes just waiting to be won. How many times have we heard about the "perfect" challenger who can beat…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 8, 2005

With the NCAA basketball tournament about to begin, perhaps "March Madness" is an appropriate metaphor to describe the competition for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. Think of the NCAA brackets, but on one side, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York gets byes all the way to the finals. On the other side, there could easily be a half dozen or more Democrats contending for the chance…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 5, 2005

The slow, public death of President Bush's Social Security proposal validates the view that the 2004 election was not a transformational one, and that any mandate that Bush received from it was meager indeed. The 2004 election in a nutshell: Thanks to his fabulous campaign organization, Bush, whose stature was significantly enhanced by his response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, beat a marginal ca…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

The Unfolding Republican Nightmare

May 23, 2017

If a Demo­crat had a night­mare a year ago, it might well look like what happened in last Novem­ber’s elec­tions. If a Re­pub­lic­an had a night­mare on the eve of Pres­id­ent Trump’s in­aug­ur­a­tion, it might well look like the last 118 days. After a pres­id­en­tial cam­paign that was, start to fin­ish, the strangest in memory, this has been the strangest trans­ition and first four months of...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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