Jump to Any Race
South Dakota Governor|By Charlie Cook, May 4, 2004

With just under one month left before the June 1 special election to replace former Republican Rep. William Janklow in South Dakota, the contest between Democrat Stephanie Herseth and Republican Larry Diedrich is starting to hit its stride. Herseth -- the 2002 Democratic nominee who held former four-term Gov. Janklow to 53 percent and the better known of the two candidates -- started the race wit…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 1, 2004

If there is any truth to the old saying that nothing is more exhilarating than being shot at and missed, then four-term Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., must feel especially energized. Specter fought off an aggressive challenge from his right by Rep. Pat Toomey, taking 51 percent in Tuesday's Republican primary. Turnout was light, meaning that Specter also defied the axiom that moderates and incumbents…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 27, 2004

This is a big week in American politics. The results of today's Republican Senate primary in Pennsylvania will determine whether the GOP will have another difficult open seat to defend, an important factor now that their hold on the upper chamber is in doubt. And President Bush's campaign has launched a new ad targeting Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the presumptive Democratic nominee, that th…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 24, 2004

Heading into Pennsylvania's April 27 Republican primary,  campaign strategists on both sides are watching conservative  Rep. Pat Toomey mount a strong challenge to moderate four-term  incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter. The outcome could determine  whether the GOP's tenuous 51-seat majority in the Senate is in  serious danger, or whether Senate Republicans are going to  fin…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 20, 2004

It has been about two months since Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts became the de facto 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, so perhaps it's a good time to stop and assess the state of play. Democrats are happy they got a nominee quickly and with minimal divisiveness within the party, but the honeymoon is over, and they realize Kerry is not necessarily the best candidate in the world. Although c…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 17, 2004

Over the course of the Clinton presidency, the American public became very polarized. One camp hated the president and his wife; the other camp supported them. The division was widely viewed as a commentary on the Clintons -- and nothing more.During the 2000 campaign, conservatives' animosity toward President Clinton largely shifted to his vice president, Al Gore, much as a refrigerator might conv…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 13, 2004

As President Bush faces a televised news conference tonight, the stakes are even higher than during his most recent and less fortunate national appearances -- the February State of the Union address a…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 6, 2004

So much has happened in the past week that could affect the presidential race one way or the other that it seems almost impossible to anticipate what polls are likely to show about the race a week or…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 3, 2004

Over the past couple of months, the 2004 campaign has turned  into a riveting three-ring political circus. The presidential  race promises to end in a photo finish. Meanwhile, Senate  Republicans will likely keep their slim majority, but Democrats  now have a plausible shot at capturing control. And even though  the Republican grip on the House is so strong that ousting th…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

The Cook Political Report is...

  • A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Time for a Special Prosecutor

May 18, 2017

Al­most as soon as the votes were coun­ted in Novem­ber, some Demo­crats began clam­or­ing for the ap­point­ment of a spe­cial pro­sec­utor to look at al­leg­a­tions of Rus­si­an in­volve­ment in the pres­id­en­tial cam­paign, either to hurt Hil­lary Clin­ton or help Don­ald Trump, or both. These calls were, in my view, way over the top. It has long been the case that when mem­bers of the...

Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »

Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
View Columns »

Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
View Columns »

The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
See Chart »
Read More »

The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

Download »