Americans' feelings about President Bush's job performance are closely related to their feelings about the state of the economy and the direction of the country. Polls conducted regularly for the Cook…
The notion that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is just a quirky, fringe candidate has largely been dispelled by his recent fund-raising success and by his strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire polls. Still, many seem to think that Dean's appeal and support is largely confined to the antiwar and leftist wing of the party. But, while there is no question that Dean's presidential candidacy draw…
Here's a prediction for 2004: If the prescription drug benefit is a factor in next year's election, it will be as an albatross around the necks of Republicans and the Bush administration. While the White House and GOP strategists have long said passing a drug benefit for Medicare recipients was a key element in the president's re-election strategy, the implication was that they needed to pass some…
It's unfortunate that politics-and life, for that matter-isn't a golf simulator in which we can go back and play the game over. Perhaps the fact that we can't go back in real life to see if we can change the outcome is what makes second-guessing so popular. What would have happened if Senate Democratic leaders had decided during last year's debate on creating a Department of Homeland Security not…
Just about anything that involves the Clintons is complicated, controversial, and apt to produce conspiracy theories. The release of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's new book, Living History, is certainly no exception. Just occasionally in Washington, things are actually as they seem. Let's look at some of the most asked questions about the former first lady's book and debunk some of the more inane…
Who is the leader for the Democratic nomination? In terms of fund raising, we know that whoever raises the most money during the odd-numbered year, the year before the calendar election year, almost always wins the nomination the next year (notable exception: then-Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas, in 1995-96). If that's the case, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina has raised the most money, narrowly edgi…
Unless the economy collapses, next year's Senate races will either be a wash for the two major parties or a disaster for the Democrats. Not only do the Democrats have more seats (19) to defend than the Republicans (15), but geography is not on the Democrats' side. Of the seven Senate seats that Republicans have lost in the last two elections, four were in states that Democrat Al Gore won in 2000.…
Right now, only three things are of any importance in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination: money, Iowa, and New Hampshire. And the crowded field of candidates has begun dividing into five "haves" and four "have nots." Official second-quarter fundraising totals won't be available until July 15, but how each campaign has progressed -- or failed to progress – is becoming apparent. A…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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