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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 9, 2003

Philadelphia, Miss. -- Any list of truly unique American political events would have to include Mississippi's Neshoba County Fair. Since its start in 1889, the Neshoba fair has come to play an important role in Southern politics. Ronald Reagan kicked off his 1980 general election presidential campaign here. And, despite the Republicans' strength in this part of east-central Mississippi, Sen. John…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, August 2, 2003

An eerie gravitational force seems to keep pulling President Bush's job-approval numbers back down toward the mid-50s soon after they've bounced into higher territory. We saw this in 2001, with Bus…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 29, 2003

The downward drift in President Bush's approval ratings that began after the major hostilities in Iraq ended on May 1 have continued through July, and, if preliminary numbers hold, even through the ki…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 26, 2003

In recent days, House Democrats and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have been criticized for recruiting few top-drawer candidates to 2004 House races. The larger story is that both parties are fielding few strong, nonincumbent House candidates. Furthermore, very few districts look as if they will really be competitive. With the vast majority of districts now tailor-made for one par…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 22, 2003

Spending some time with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) just over six months ago, it seemed hard to imagine how he -- or even his most optimistic backers -- could conjure up a scenario in which he became a major factor in the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination fight. It was not a setting in which it would have been appropriate to take notes, unfortunately, so I can't recall his specific s…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 19, 2003

If you had to bet $1,000 on whether President Bush will get re-elected but first could have one piece of advance information, would you want to know the identity of the Democratic presidential nominee…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 15, 2003

There is no question that President Bush and his administration have taken a beating over Iraq, particularly over questions about whether weapons of mass destruction exist and whether Iraq attempted t…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 12, 2003

Americans' feelings about President Bush's job performance are closely related to their feelings about the state of the economy and the direction of the country. Polls conducted regularly for the Cook…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 8, 2003

The notion that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is just a quirky, fringe candidate has largely been dispelled by his recent fund-raising success and by his strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire polls. Still, many seem to think that Dean's appeal and support is largely confined to the antiwar and leftist wing of the party. But, while there is no question that Dean's presidential candidacy draw…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Republicans Weigh Their RyanCare Votes

March 23, 2017

More than a few House Re­pub­lic­ans are likely to be tak­ing deep breaths as they board the sub­way from the Long­worth or Ray­burn House Of­fice Build­ings to the Cap­it­ol on Thursday to vote on the Amer­ic­an Health Care Act. They know that they will be cast­ing a fate­ful vote on a bill that no one really likes and, giv­en the lack of af­fec­tion for it in the Sen­ate, one that is...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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