"We can't survive as a party without getting more of the Hispanic vote." -- Matthew Dowd, Chicago Tribune, January 27, 2002 "...the fact (is) that the Latino vote in this country is the fastest-gro…
At this point, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts is engaged in mop-up duty, with his clinching of the Democratic presidential nomination being a foregone conclusion. He has won 12 of 14 primaries and caucuses, including all of those not in a state bordering an opponent's home state. And in the vast majority of cases, he has won with impressive margins. At this stage, his rivals will simply become l…
It is dangerous to assume anything this election year. But at this point, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's claim on the Democratic presidential nomination looks close to rock-solid, and the contours of…
By winning the South Carolina primary, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina did what he had to do to survive. So did retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark by winning Oklahoma. Yet it's not easy to see how either could beat Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts for the Democratic presidential nomination. By winning five primaries and caucuses on Tuesday, including those in the two biggest states (Missouri and…
Normally, I try to avoid the human tendency to make sweeping, "this race is over if" generalizations because politics is a complicated business, and myriad factors can transform something that looks inevitable into something unpredictable. Having said that, if Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., manages to finish first today in Missouri and Arizona, the two largest states in the process thus far, as well as…
John Kerry's impressive victory in the New Hampshire Democratic primary wins him the Lazarus Award for coming back from the political dead. Although the senator from Massachusetts began 2003 with a lead of about 15 points in the Granite State over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Kerry fell as much as 30 points behind once Dean began his climb. Kerry then began an astonishing comeback over the Ch…
Des Moines, Iowa - In the world of political punditry, the objective is to always have a theory that predicts the future. This theory should be based on a reasonable-sounding hypothesis and have at least a 60 percent chance of turning out to be correct. But given how topsy-turvy the Democratic presidential contest is now, I don't know how anyone can come up with a prediction about who'll be the pa…
Des Moines, Iowa - In Sunday's Des Moines Register, David Yepsen, the dean of the Iowa political press corps, reminded us of the "Nagle Rule." Named after former Rep. Dave Nagle, D-Iowa, the rule posits that a presidential campaign in the Iowa caucuses should, "organize, organize, organize. Then get hot at the end." Looking back at Monday's results, the winner, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., was the on…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Democrats Find It’s Risky to Poke the GOP ElephantJune 27, 2017
There’s an old saying that close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and that’s certainly how Democrats must feel after losing their third and fourth attempts of the year to wrestle away Republican-held seats in special congressional elections. In fairness, the first two shouldn’t fully count against them since the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was...Read more »
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