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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 18, 2003

NEW ORLEANS -- In each of this year's four gubernatorial elections, it is interesting to note the "in" party was thrown out and the "out" party voted into power. At the same time, it would be a mistake to put too much emphasis on this point. In truth, each of these races was an individual event with dramatically different circumstances. In Louisiana, Kathleen Blanco's (D) upset principally result…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 15, 2003

Politically speaking, times are very odd. On the one hand, Republicans have just successfully recalled the Democratic governor of the nation's largest state and put one of their own into office. They'…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 11, 2003

When I first heard Monday that Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts had just fired his presidential campaign manager, Jim Jordan, I immediately thought back to a conversation I had a month ago at a reception on Capitol Hill. Several people were discussing the race for the Democratic nomination, and I opined that the Kerry campaign's organizational problems were vastly overblown. In fact, I believed --…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 4, 2003

After the dust settled from the 2002 elections, Republicans held 26 governorships, while Democrats had 24. Arnold Schwarzenegger's victory in last month's California recall election brought the number of Republican governors to 27. Today's races in Kentucky and Mississippi (and the Louisiana runoff Nov. 15) could bring the GOP's hold on the state mansions to as many as 29, or return it to the orig…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, November 1, 2003

We have long known that the president's approval ratings, the economy's health, and the availability of jobs are among the best election-year predictors of whether a president will win re-election.…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 28, 2003

When we get the first look at economic growth numbers for the third quarter of this year on Thursday, those Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures may well show impressive economic growth -- a sign that President Bush's tax cut-oriented economic growth package did in fact stimulate the economy. History has shown that economic growth through the second quarter of the election year usually results in…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 25, 2003

As many have long expected, the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination is coming down to just three things: Iowa, New Hampshire, and money. The Iowa caucuses (scheduled for January 19) and the New Hampshire primary (January 27) have long been springboards to the nomination. Thirteen of the last 14 major-party nominees have won Iowa, New Hampshire, or both. Bill Clinton is the exception…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 21, 2003

Two new reliable polls of Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic primary voters are helping to shed some light on the pivotal Democratic contests in those states. One of the surveys (the one that's getting the most attention) even included a sample from South Carolina. The results show some good news for Howard Dean in Iowa and New Hampshire, and a wide-open contest in South Carolina. The first poll,…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, October 18, 2003

Texas's newly enacted congressional redistricting plan has drawn a lot of attention, largely because it endangers more than half of the state's 17 House Democrats. But the new map's impact might be felt far beyond the borders of the Lone Star State. With so few House seats in play anywhere in the nation in this cycle, losing two to seven seats in Texas would greatly reduce the Democrats' chances…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Time for a Special Prosecutor

May 18, 2017

Al­most as soon as the votes were coun­ted in Novem­ber, some Demo­crats began clam­or­ing for the ap­point­ment of a spe­cial pro­sec­utor to look at al­leg­a­tions of Rus­si­an in­volve­ment in the pres­id­en­tial cam­paign, either to hurt Hil­lary Clin­ton or help Don­ald Trump, or both. These calls were, in my view, way over the top. It has long been the case that when mem­bers of the...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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