Gulf War II is now well under way, and public opinion is extremely volatile, as is reflected in some soft poll numbers. Several polls are coming out each day, with numbers differing from one day to th…
The outbreak of a war with Iraq now seems to be a matter of days -- or even hours. Talk of war and diplomatic maneuvering has dominated the political and policy landscape for months. Win, lose or draw, the conclusion of a war with Iraq means President Bush will face many formidable policy challenges that are no less daunting than Iraq and easily could significantly complicate his re-election effor…
While it will take time to know whether war in Iraq will be a political asset for President Bush, it's a good bet that the conflict will have an impact on the political fortunes of the Democratic presidential candidates. As a result of the 9/11 tragedy, the ensuing war on terrorism, and events leading up to war with Iraq, Americans have begun paying more attention to the rest of world affairs and…
When Republican Senate candidate Elizabeth Dole went ahead with a Houston fundraising event scheduled for September 20, 2001, just nine days after the terrorist attacks on the Pentagon and the World Trade Center, she triggered such a hullabaloo of criticism that one would have thought she had danced the hula at a funeral. Yet now, in the early days of war, with American service members getting kil…
As war with Iraq increasingly appears inevitable, President Bush is walking a precarious political tightrope-attempting to balance his ambitious foreign-policy goals on the one side, and a myriad of economic and domestic challenges on the other. If he falls off that tightrope, he'll likely go down in history as a one-term president. Just for a moment, let's assume that the United States wins the…
Those of you starving for electoral action take heart. Next week's Kentucky gubernatorial primary will be the first statewide election of the 2003-04 election cycle. And this contest pretty much has it all -- scandal, a troubled economy and two messy primary contests. What more could a political junkie want? Scandal-plagued Democratic Gov. Paul Patton is term-limited, and Republicans hope that th…
Getting deeply involved in recruiting Senate candidates and campaigning for them was a bet that paid off handsomely for President Bush and his political advisers in 2002. But as the new election cycle gets under way, the White House is faced with some political situations that are considerably more complicated, particularly in the Senate primaries. What's more, White House operatives are beginning…
Saturday's South Carolina state Democratic Party convention and the first debate among the nine candidates for the party's presidential nomination next year were two of those classic events for journalists and the campaigns alike --- intensely interesting and totally unimportant. While the media and party insiders were offered a great opportunity to size up the candidates and assess their potentia…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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