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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 19, 2003

If you had to bet $1,000 on whether President Bush will get re-elected but first could have one piece of advance information, would you want to know the identity of the Democratic presidential nominee…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 15, 2003

There is no question that President Bush and his administration have taken a beating over Iraq, particularly over questions about whether weapons of mass destruction exist and whether Iraq attempted t…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 12, 2003

Americans' feelings about President Bush's job performance are closely related to their feelings about the state of the economy and the direction of the country. Polls conducted regularly for the Cook…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 8, 2003

The notion that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is just a quirky, fringe candidate has largely been dispelled by his recent fund-raising success and by his strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire polls. Still, many seem to think that Dean's appeal and support is largely confined to the antiwar and leftist wing of the party. But, while there is no question that Dean's presidential candidacy draw…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 1, 2003

Here's a prediction for 2004: If the prescription drug benefit is a factor in next year's election, it will be as an albatross around the necks of Republicans and the Bush administration. While the White House and GOP strategists have long said passing a drug benefit for Medicare recipients was a key element in the president's re-election strategy, the implication was that they needed to pass some…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 28, 2003

It's unfortunate that politics-and life, for that matter-isn't a golf simulator in which we can go back and play the game over. Perhaps the fact that we can't go back in real life to see if we can change the outcome is what makes second-guessing so popular. What would have happened if Senate Democratic leaders had decided during last year's debate on creating a Department of Homeland Security not…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 24, 2003

Rarely is a poll all good news or all bad news for either major political party. This is certainly the case with the latest Ipsos Public Affairs/Cook Political Report survey (2,000 adults, margin of e…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 14, 2003

Just about anything that involves the Clintons is complicated, controversial, and apt to produce conspiracy theories. The release of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's new book, Living History, is certainly no exception. Just occasionally in Washington, things are actually as they seem. Let's look at some of the most asked questions about the former first lady's book and debunk some of the more inane…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 10, 2003

Who is the leader for the Democratic nomination? In terms of fund raising, we know that whoever raises the most money during the odd-numbered year, the year before the calendar election year, almost always wins the nomination the next year (notable exception: then-Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas, in 1995-96). If that's the case, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina has raised the most money, narrowly edgi…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Trump’s Policies Are a Result of On-the-Job Training

April 20, 2017

The me­dia and crit­ics on the Left are hav­ing a field day at­tack­ing Pres­id­ent Trump’s rather nu­mer­ous and of­ten dra­mat­ic changes of heart on policy—wheth­er China ma­nip­u­lates its cur­rency, the ne­ces­sity of the U.S. Ex­port-Im­port Bank and NATO, and the U.S.’s stra­tegic pos­ture in Syr­ia.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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