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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 9, 2004

Most news accounts of last Friday's dismal Labor Department jobs report missed the most revealing finding. While the headlines emphasized that our entire economy created only 21,000 net new jobs in February — far below the 150,000 or so needed to keep up with population growth — the fine print indicated that the private sector actually lost jobs. The entire net gain was due to an increase of 17,80…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 6, 2004

In the interest of full disclosure, I must confess that I have never accurately predicted whom a presidential nominee would pick as his running mate. Then again, I don't know anyone else who has. I do not know a soul who predicted that Al Gore would pick Joe Lieberman or that George W. Bush would pick Dick Cheney, the guy who was heading up Bush's running-mate search committee. I don't recall anyo…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 2, 2004

This Thursday, March 4, the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign is scheduled to begin its advertising effort on a number of national cable television networks, as well as local broadcast stations in 17 states, signaling in some ways the start of the general election campaign. The advertising begins in nine states that then-Vice President Al Gore carried in 2000 and eight states President Bush won. The nine…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 28, 2004

Ralph Nader's decision to to run for president as an independent caused Democrats to have heart palpitations and made Republicans euphoric. But just the opposite was the case five days earlier, when, for the first time since 1991, Democrats captured a Republican seat in a House special election. With the closeness of the 2000 presidential election still fresh in most voters' minds, Nader is unlik…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 24, 2004

It's obvious why Democrats are nervous about consumer advocate Ralph Nader running for president. After all, it's unlikely that Nader will siphon any votes from President Bush, and the last election w…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 21, 2004

Sen. John Edwards's strong second-place finish in Wisconsin means the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination is not quite over. But now that Democrats have captured a Republican-held congressional seat in the special election in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, attention may soon begin to turn, albeit briefly, to the fight for control of Congress. The Republicans hold a bare, 51-…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 17, 2004

No one should be surprised to find President Bush spending this past Sunday at the Daytona 500 NASCAR race. After all, this is a presidential election year, and the race is the largest single sporting event in the state of Florida — a key state that he carried by only 537 votes in 2000. Virtually all analysts put Florida in the toss-up column this year as well. The visit was a no-brainer for the B…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 16, 2004

"We can't survive as a party without getting more of the Hispanic vote." -- Matthew Dowd, Chicago Tribune, January 27, 2002 "...the fact (is) that the Latino vote in this country is the fastest-gro…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 14, 2004

At this point, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts is engaged in mop-up duty, with his clinching of the Democratic presidential nomination being a foregone conclusion. He has won 12 of 14 primaries and caucuses, including all of those not in a state bordering an opponent's home state. And in the vast majority of cases, he has won with impressive margins. At this stage, his rivals will simply become l…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Tennessee  |  Governor  |  Haslam (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Kansas  |  Governor  |  Brownback (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Illinois  |  Governor  |  Rauner (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New Mexico  |  Governor  |  Martinez (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

New Jersey  |  Governor  |  Christie (R)

Likely D
Lean D

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

GOP Divisions Doomed Health Care Bill

July 25, 2017

The collapse of the Senate Republican health care bill isn’t all that complicated and shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Like some bad marriages, you can chalk it up to “irreconcilable differences.” The Senate Republican Conference includes very conservative members who to their marrow believe in minimalist government, especially when it involves health care. But it also includes senators...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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