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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 7, 2003

Unless the economy collapses, next year's Senate races will either be a wash for the two major parties or a disaster for the Democrats. Not only do the Democrats have more seats (19) to defend than the Republicans (15), but geography is not on the Democrats' side. Of the seven Senate seats that Republicans have lost in the last two elections, four were in states that Democrat Al Gore won in 2000.…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 5, 2003

Right now, only three things are of any importance in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination: money, Iowa, and New Hampshire. And the crowded field of candidates has begun dividing into five "haves" and four "have nots." Official second-quarter fundraising totals won't be available until July 15, but how each campaign has progressed -- or failed to progress – is becoming apparent. A…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 3, 2003

When the political science world's foremost expert on congressional elections weighs in with his post-election analysis, serious students of the process sit up and take notice. The latest issue of Pol…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 31, 2003

History tells us that presidential job-approval ratings this far in advance of an election are not a reliable indicator of whether a president will win re-election. Nevertheless, strategists in both p…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 27, 2003

As we transition from an abbreviated spring to summer, the political environment is undergoing what appears to be a similar metamorphosis. During a brief but strong ramp-up period immediately before t…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 24, 2003

The 2004 presidential election is likely to be a game of political tug-of-war. President Bush and his fellow Republicans will be pulling hard to keep the public and the news media focused on his stron…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 20, 2003

First, keep in mind that, over the last 30 years, every single Republican presidential nominee and every Democrat save one, Bill Clinton in 1992, won either the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary, or both. The one exception during that period, covering elections from 1976 onward, featured a Democratic candidate who was from Iowa (Tom Harkin) and a combination of a next-door candidate in New…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 17, 2003

The partisan acrimony that began intensifying in the House in the mid- to late 1980s now extends far beyond that chamber. Just look at this week's news. The Senate is facing a horrible fight over President Bush's judicial nominations. While the Senate has never been quite the embodiment of gentility that some commentators make it out to be, it has now become even more contentious than the House-i…

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 10, 2003

Columbia, S.C.-For political reporters, Democratic operatives and activists, and political junkies of all persuasions, this past weekend's South Carolina Democratic Party State Convention, accompanied by the first debate for Democrats running for the 2004 presidential nomination, was a long-overdue fix after months in which foreign policy and war have dominated the news. Whether it was the annual…

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Trump’s Policies Are a Result of On-the-Job Training

April 20, 2017

The me­dia and crit­ics on the Left are hav­ing a field day at­tack­ing Pres­id­ent Trump’s rather nu­mer­ous and of­ten dra­mat­ic changes of heart on policy—wheth­er China ma­nip­u­lates its cur­rency, the ne­ces­sity of the U.S. Ex­port-Im­port Bank and NATO, and the U.S.’s stra­tegic pos­ture in Syr­ia.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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