Within hours after the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts effectively legalized civil marriages last week for gay couples in the state, it became an article of faith that the gay marriage issue would dominate the 2004 elections. Whether voters see the war in Iraq as essential to our national security or as an ill-advised quagmire, few people put the gay marriage issue above it on their list…
Largely unnoticed in the aftermath of this year's four gubernatorial races is the fact that the party in power was thrown out every time. The throw-'em-out trend began some time ago. In fact, in the 42 gubernatorial elections held since November 2001, an amazing 26 resulted in party switches. Republicans lost 13 governorships to Democrats, who in turn lost 11 to Republicans. And each major party…
XIBAIPO, China -- Here in Hebei Province, the political maneuvering in Washington and the ups and downs of House, Senate, gubernatorial, and even presidential election campaigns somehow feel smaller and less consequential than they do at home. While the question of who will win the 2004 American presidential race is fascinating even from this great distance, day-to-day American political posturin…
NEW ORLEANS -- In each of this year's four gubernatorial elections, it is interesting to note the "in" party was thrown out and the "out" party voted into power. At the same time, it would be a mistake to put too much emphasis on this point. In truth, each of these races was an individual event with dramatically different circumstances. In Louisiana, Kathleen Blanco's (D) upset principally result…
Politically speaking, times are very odd. On the one hand, Republicans have just successfully recalled the Democratic governor of the nation's largest state and put one of their own into office. They'…
When I first heard Monday that Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts had just fired his presidential campaign manager, Jim Jordan, I immediately thought back to a conversation I had a month ago at a reception on Capitol Hill. Several people were discussing the race for the Democratic nomination, and I opined that the Kerry campaign's organizational problems were vastly overblown. In fact, I believed --…
After the dust settled from the 2002 elections, Republicans held 26 governorships, while Democrats had 24. Arnold Schwarzenegger's victory in last month's California recall election brought the number of Republican governors to 27. Today's races in Kentucky and Mississippi (and the Louisiana runoff Nov. 15) could bring the GOP's hold on the state mansions to as many as 29, or return it to the orig…
We have long known that the president's approval ratings, the economy's health, and the availability of jobs are among the best election-year predictors of whether a president will win re-election.…
When we get the first look at economic growth numbers for the third quarter of this year on Thursday, those Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures may well show impressive economic growth -- a sign that President Bush's tax cut-oriented economic growth package did in fact stimulate the economy. History has shown that economic growth through the second quarter of the election year usually results in…
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
GOP Divisions Doomed Health Care BillJuly 25, 2017
The collapse of the Senate Republican health care bill isn’t all that complicated and shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Like some bad marriages, you can chalk it up to “irreconcilable differences.” The Senate Republican Conference includes very conservative members who to their marrow believe in minimalist government, especially when it involves health care. But it also includes senators...Read more »
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