Soon after Donald Trump was elected president it became strikingly clear that these would be no ordinary times, to borrow the title from Doris Kearns Goodwin’s book about Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt during World War II. Any comparison with the Roosevelts ends there, but the conclusion that there would be no normal days is even more true now than it appeared four months...
The very public intra-party fight between President Trump and the Freedom Caucus is just the latest twist in the ongoing fight over the philosophical, strategic and ideological direction of the Republican party. As has been his mode of operation since his candidate days, Trump has taken to Twitter to shame/intimidate/cajole members of his own party. In this case, it was to get rebellious GOPers...
MINNESOTA: Democratic U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar was easily re-elected to a second term in 2012 with 65 percent of the vote, which helps explain why ambitious Republicans aren’t forming a line to challenge her next year. The other factor that could well spare Klobuchar a competitive challenge is the open-seat Governor’s race in 2018, which has generated great interest among Republicans looking to...
There's a tendency in Washington to believe Democrats have hit rock bottom in rural America, but the party still holds 12 House seats in districts President Trump carried. Three are in Minnesota. Democratic Rep. Tim Walz's decision to run for governor opens up a seat that voted for Trump 53 percent to 48 percent, giving Republicans an excellent takeover opportunity in a year when Democrats will...
It's hard to remember the last time a House race became as much of a national fixation as the race in GA-06 to replace HHS Secretary Tom Price. With less than three weeks left until the initial April 18 primary, minor celebrities and Democratic staff continue to pour into suburban Atlanta, and left-leaning donors - with few other ways to channel their anger towards the Trump administration -...
Nobody knows where this nascent Donald Trump presidency is going. New administrations start off with an infinite number of potential trajectories, but this one is even more unpredictable than others. Trump could still turn out to be a successful president. As an American, I certainly hope he will. But today at least, it looks more like a “death by a thousand cuts.”
ALABAMA: On February 9, Republican Gov. Robert Bentley appointed then-state Attorney General Luther Strange to fill the seat vacated by U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions who resigned to become Attorney General, and announced that a special election to fulfill the remainder of Sessions’ term would be held in November of next year. Although Bentley instituted a formal process to pick Sessions’...
President Trump’s private warning that 2018 could be a “bloodbath” if Republicans don’t make good on his promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act may sound like hyperbole, but Republicans thinking of crossing him shouldn’t laugh it off. Just ask Rep. Martha Roby.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Two Special Elections Add Suspense to MidtermsApril 25, 2017
Two congressional special elections in as many weeks make clear that while the Republican Party is not in a free fall, things are not copacetic, either. Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes won last week’s special election in Kansas’s 4th District to fill the vacancy created by Mike Pompeo’s nomination to head the CIA, but his 5-point victory was far short of the...Read more »
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