The fight for Obamacare repeal is moving on two separate, but parallel tracks. One is a legislative track to a future and final Republican health care reform bill; a bill that can make it through the Senate, reconciliation with the House and onto the president’s desk to be signed into law. That path is full of lots of twists and turns – both expected and unexpected.
The results of individual special elections, like Thursday's in Montana between Democrat Rob Quist and Republican Greg Gianforte, can't always foretell what will happen in the next high-stakes midterm. Each district presents its own unique set of variables, like flawed candidates or dreadfully unpopular governors.
If a Democrat had a nightmare a year ago, it might well look like what happened in last November’s elections. If a Republican had a nightmare on the eve of President Trump’s inauguration, it might well look like the last 118 days. After a presidential campaign that was, start to finish, the strangest in memory, this has been the strangest transition and first four months of...
If there's anything to be learned from past wave elections, it's they don't discriminate on the basis of seniority. In 2010, angry voters did the unthinkable and threw out long-venerated committee chairs like Reps. Jim Oberstar (MN-08), Ike Skelton (MO-04), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), John Spratt (SC-05), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27) and Rick Boucher (VA-09) - who had a combined 200...
Almost as soon as the votes were counted in November, some Democrats began clamoring for the appointment of a special prosecutor to look at allegations of Russian involvement in the presidential campaign, either to hurt Hillary Clinton or help Donald Trump, or both. These calls were, in my view, way over the top. It has long been the case that when members of the...
Another week of crazy at the White House begets another week of talk among the political chattering class about “when the GOP base will abandon” President Trump. Recent polling suggests that’s not happening. NBC, Gallup and Survey Monkey all show Trump with approval ratings among Republicans between 82 and 88 percent.
It’s time for congressional Republicans and their strategists to start popping their blood-pressure meds. Even before President Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, the potential for GOP problems in next year’s midterm elections were real. Obviously no one knows what will happen in an election almost 18 months away. But now is when incumbents start deciding whether...
Georgia's special election is now officially the most expensive House race of all time: the candidates and parties will likely spend in excess of $40 million to win that deadlocked race. But it's easy to forget there are two specials unfolding in places that have actually elected Democrats to federal office in the last decade (unlike GA-06): Montana's At-Large seat on May 25, and South...
House Republicans were caught on the horns of a dilemma. If they didn’t pass a bill that effectively repealed and replaced Obamacare, they would either look ineffectual or in defiance of their conservative base. But to pass a bill with no Democratic support in a narrowly divided House, they would need support of the vast majority of the conservative Freedom Caucus,...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under TrumpJune 23, 2017
For congressional Republicans in the new norm of the Trump presidency, nothing is easy, and everything is hard. Raising the debt ceiling in order to keep the government from defaulting on its debt is normally easy; now it is hard. Passing an omnibus budget bill to simply keep the government operating (forget the idea of passing the full battery of 12 appropriations...Read more »
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