This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on April 26, 2016.
Despite all the noise from both sides of the debate, when you run the numbers, it turns out that Donald Trump could win the nomination on the first ballot precisely because of the GOP’s delegate rules. Ted Cruz also benefits, but not until later ballots. The losers? John Kasich and all the other candidates, and their supporters.
Next Tuesday, voters will witness something that has become as rare as a total solar eclipse: a very competitive Democratic Senate primary in a race that matters. Former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, Katie McGinty, who was most recently chief of staff to Gov. Tom Wolf, Braddock Mayor John Fetterman, and businessman Joe Vadvarka are vying for the nomination to take on GOP U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey in the...
The likelihood of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as the GOP's presidential nominee has given Democrats newfound optimism about their prospects for down-ballot success in 2016. A Hillary Clinton landslide could force Republicans in swing and light-red districts to run against the top of their own ticket and to argue that they would be needed in Congress as a check on a Clinton agenda.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump easily won Tuesday’s New York primary. That was entirely expected and consistent with recent polling. Here’s what the road ahead looks like for the two frontrunners and their closest competitors.
On Saturday, Democrats claimed a late recruiting coup when state Sen. Terri Bonoff announced she will challenge four-term GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in suburban Minneapolis's 3rd CD. Paulsen's moderate demeanor and record are a good fit here: he took 58 percent in 2012 and 62 percent in 2014. But a Donald Trump or Ted Cruz nomination could be problematic for down-ticket Republicans in the 3rd, by...
It's not quite a mass exodus, but nearly four dozen members of the House are headed for the exits this year. Despite the GOP's historic majority, nearly two thirds are Republicans - including over a dozen members of the class of 2010. The good news for both parties - but especially Republicans - is that a majority of these are safe seats. We currently rate only 13 of these seats as vulnerable,...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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