What politics giveth, it taketh away. Three weeks ago Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's decision to run for re-election in Florida greatly improved the party's chances of holding the seat and improved the Senate landscape for the GOP overall.
A year ago, it was unthinkable that Republican members of Congress would ever support Donald Trump. Even in mid-February, eight months after he had launched his candidacy, not a single sitting member of Congress had endorsed him. Of course, Trump's willingness to verbally assault his own party's politicians probably helped him win the GOP nomination with about 45 percent of GOP primary voters.
FBI Director James Comey’s announcement Tuesday morning that Hillary Clinton will not be indicted effectively removes one of the last important variables in this presidential election—at least any that we know about. Comey’s rather remarkable 15-minute, nationally televised statement carefully reviewed the FBI’s year-long investigation into allegations that...
It could be said that the 2016 presidential election is once again a question of economics versus demographics. On one hand, wage stagnation and a narrow economic recovery have contributed to the anxiety that fueled Donald Trump’s rise. But if he wants to beat Hillary Clinton, he’ll need to swim against a powerful demographic tide that continues to aid Democrats in the race for 270 electoral...
ISideWith.com is the best of several websites that enable voters to match up where they stand on the issues with the major and leading minor party candidates for president who will be on the ballot in November: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
The word “volatile” doesn’t begin to describe the fight for a Senate majority this year. With the current split of 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats if they retain the White House (the incoming vice president would break the tie in that event) and five seats if Republicans win the presidential race. The questions that political analysts are asking...
Apart from the open seat in Nevada, Colorado was the only other Democratic-held seat that Republicans had a chance to put into play. A five-way GOP primary on June 28 produced a weak general election nominee, giving incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet a much easier ride to a second term. El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn won the GOP primary with 38 percent of the vote.
Picture a "typical" Bernie Sanders supporter. Before the primaries began in earnest, most people probably pictured a Birkenstock-wearing, Occupy protesting, anti-climate change activist who lives in Seattle, Austin, or Boston. Many still do. However, with the benefit of primary hindsight, we now know this stereotype wasn't fully accurate - and it's why Hillary Clinton still has a lot of work to...
In terms of American politics, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union is something of a “Goldilocks” event. Instead of striking a balance between too hot and too cold, the key to getting Brexit just right is not to read too much into it while also understanding its significance.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under TrumpJune 23, 2017
For congressional Republicans in the new norm of the Trump presidency, nothing is easy, and everything is hard. Raising the debt ceiling in order to keep the government from defaulting on its debt is normally easy; now it is hard. Passing an omnibus budget bill to simply keep the government operating (forget the idea of passing the full battery of 12 appropriations...Read more »
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