There's no doubt Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-23) has had a rocky tenure as DNC chair and that she's incurred the wrath of Bernie Sanders supporters who believe she's "rigged" the primaries in Hillary Clinton's favor. But as her primary opponent begins to take on a national profile, it's worth keeping in mind her August 30 primary will be decided by a relatively small pool of Democratic...
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 30, 2016.
There’s little doubt that Donald Trump has changed the rules of campaigning in the 21st century. Or, more accurately, he’s the first to understand how to effectively campaign in a 21st century media environment. Yet, winning the media cycle is different from winning a campaign. And, as my colleagues and I have written about extensively, that requires him to do better with the electorate that...
This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on June 2, 2016.
At their convention in Orlando over the weekend, the Libertarian Party nominated the highest credentialed national ticket of any third party since the Bull Moose Party chose former President Theodore Roosevelt and in 1912.
As the end of another month approaches, so does the deluge of emails from candidates and campaign committees in search of contributions. This torrent of missives begging for $5 or $10 used to come only toward the end of the quarter, but there are now mid-quarter and monthly deadlines, making the pace relentless to the point that there are candidates who send one or two fundraising emails...
On June 7, most eyes will be on California's Democratic presidential primary, where Hillary Clinton is set to clinch the delegates necessary for the nomination, regardless of the final margin against Bernie Sanders. But the real action will be in down-ballot races, where June results in a handful of districts could provide clues about candidates' November viability - particularly Democrats'...
In 2014, Democrats believed that Georgia was one red state that they could turn blue. They had a very strong nominee in former Points of Light Foundation CEO Michelle Nunn and Republicans hosted a crowded primary and contentious run-off before nominating businessman David Perdue. Nunn couldn’t survive the midterm tide and Perdue won the race with 53 percent. While Democrats perform somewhat...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
Two Special Elections Add Suspense to MidtermsApril 25, 2017
Two congressional special elections in as many weeks make clear that while the Republican Party is not in a free fall, things are not copacetic, either. Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes won last week’s special election in Kansas’s 4th District to fill the vacancy created by Mike Pompeo’s nomination to head the CIA, but his 5-point victory was far short of the...Read more »
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