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Florida House|By David Wasserman, June 3, 2016

There's no doubt Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-23) has had a rocky tenure as DNC chair and that she's incurred the wrath of Bernie Sanders supporters who believe she's "rigged" the primaries in Hillary Clinton's favor. But as her primary opponent begins to take on a national profile, it's worth keeping in mind her August 30 primary will be decided by a relatively small pool of Democratic...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 3, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 30, 2016.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, June 2, 2016

There’s little doubt that Donald Trump has changed the rules of campaigning in the 21st century. Or, more accurately, he’s the first to understand how to effectively campaign in a 21st century media environment. Yet, winning the media cycle is different from winning a campaign. And, as my colleagues and I have written about extensively, that requires him to do better with the electorate that...

National Politics|By David Wasserman, June 2, 2016

This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on June 2, 2016.

National Politics|By Michael Nelson, May 31, 2016

At their convention in Orlando over the weekend, the Libertarian Party nominated the highest credentialed national ticket of any third party since the Bull Moose Party chose former President Theodore Roosevelt and in 1912.

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, May 27, 2016

As the end of another month approaches, so does the deluge of emails from candidates and campaign committees in search of contributions. This torrent of missives begging for $5 or $10 used to come only toward the end of the quarter, but there are now mid-quarter and monthly deadlines, making the pace relentless to the point that there are candidates who send one or two fundraising emails...

California House|By David Wasserman, May 27, 2016

On June 7, most eyes will be on California's Democratic presidential primary, where Hillary Clinton is set to clinch the delegates necessary for the nomination, regardless of the final margin against Bernie Sanders. But the real action will be in down-ballot races, where June results in a handful of districts could provide clues about candidates' November viability - particularly Democrats'...

Georgia Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, May 27, 2016

In 2014, Democrats believed that Georgia was one red state that they could turn blue. They had a very strong nominee in former Points of Light Foundation CEO Michelle Nunn and Republicans hosted a crowded primary and contentious run-off before nominating businessman David Perdue. Nunn couldn’t survive the midterm tide and Perdue won the race with 53 percent. While Democrats perform somewhat...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 27, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 23, 2016.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Two Special Elections Add Suspense to Midterms

April 25, 2017

Two con­gres­sion­al spe­cial elec­tions in as many weeks make clear that while the Re­pub­lic­an Party is not in a free fall, things are not co­pacet­ic, either. Re­pub­lic­an state Treas­urer Ron Estes won last week’s spe­cial elec­tion in Kan­sas’s 4th Dis­trict to fill the va­cancy cre­ated by Mike Pom­peo’s nom­in­a­tion to head the CIA, but his 5-point vic­tory was far short of the...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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