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Indiana Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, July 11, 2016

What politics giveth, it taketh away. Three weeks ago Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's decision to run for re-election in Florida greatly improved the party's chances of holding the seat and improved the Senate landscape for the GOP overall.

House Overview|By David Wasserman, July 8, 2016

A year ago, it was unthinkable that Republican members of Congress would ever support Donald Trump. Even in mid-February, eight months after he had launched his candidacy, not a single sitting member of Congress had endorsed him. Of course, Trump's willingness to verbally assault his own party's politicians probably helped him win the GOP nomination with about 45 percent of GOP primary voters.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 8, 2016

FBI Dir­ect­or James Comey’s an­nounce­ment Tues­day morn­ing that Hil­lary Clin­ton will not be in­dicted ef­fect­ively re­moves one of the last im­port­ant vari­ables in this pres­id­en­tial elec­tion—at least any that we know about. Comey’s rather re­mark­able 15-minute, na­tion­ally tele­vised state­ment care­fully re­viewed the FBI’s year-long in­vest­ig­a­tion in­to al­leg­a­tions that...

National Politics|By David Wasserman, July 8, 2016

It could be said that the 2016 presidential election is once again a question of economics versus demographics. On one hand, wage stagnation and a narrow economic recovery have contributed to the anxiety that fueled Donald Trump’s rise. But if he wants to beat Hillary Clinton, he’ll need to swim against a powerful demographic tide that continues to aid Democrats in the race for 270 electoral...

National Politics|By Michael Nelson, July 5, 2016

ISideWith.com is the best of several websites that enable voters to match up where they stand on the issues with the major and leading minor party candidates for president who will be on the ballot in November: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Senate Overview|By Charlie Cook, July 5, 2016

The word “volatile” doesn’t begin to describe the fight for a Senate majority this year. With the current split of 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats if they retain the White House (the incoming vice president would break the tie in that event) and five seats if Republicans win the presidential race. The questions that political analysts are asking...

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, July 1, 2016

Apart from the open seat in Nevada, Colorado was the only other Democratic-held seat that Republicans had a chance to put into play. A five-way GOP primary on June 28 produced a weak general election nominee, giving incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet a much easier ride to a second term. El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn won the GOP primary with 38 percent of the vote.

National Politics|By David Wasserman, July 1, 2016

Picture a "typical" Bernie Sanders supporter. Before the primaries began in earnest, most people probably pictured a Birkenstock-wearing, Occupy protesting, anti-climate change activist who lives in Seattle, Austin, or Boston. Many still do. However, with the benefit of primary hindsight, we now know this stereotype wasn't fully accurate - and it's why Hillary Clinton still has a lot of work to...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 1, 2016

In terms of Amer­ic­an polit­ics, Bri­tain’s vote to leave the European Uni­on is something of a “Goldilocks” event. In­stead of strik­ing a bal­ance between too hot and too cold, the key to get­ting Brexit just right is not to read too much in­to it while also un­der­stand­ing its sig­ni­fic­ance.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Tennessee  |  Governor  |  Haslam (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Kansas  |  Governor  |  Brownback (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Illinois  |  Governor  |  Rauner (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New Mexico  |  Governor  |  Martinez (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

New Jersey  |  Governor  |  Christie (R)

Likely D
Lean D

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Charlie Cook's Column

No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under Trump

June 23, 2017

For con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans in the new norm of the Trump pres­id­ency, noth­ing is easy, and everything is hard. Rais­ing the debt ceil­ing in or­der to keep the gov­ern­ment from de­fault­ing on its debt is nor­mally easy; now it is hard. Passing an om­ni­bus budget bill to simply keep the gov­ern­ment op­er­at­ing (for­get the idea of passing the full bat­tery of 12 ap­pro­pri­ations...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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