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National Politics|By David Wasserman, March 25, 2016

Donald Trump's dominance in Arizona on Tuesday moved him 58 delegates closer to capturing the 1,237 he needs to win the GOP nomination without a contested convention. But Ted Cruz's sweep of Utah's 40 delegates keeps the "Never Trump" movement's hopes alive in a race that is assured to last all the way through June 7. If Cruz wants to thwart Trump, Wisconsin is probably a must-win state on...

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, March 25, 2016

Not all rating changes are created equal. Some changes happen when a first-tier candidate gets into a race and instantly makes it more competitive. Others occur because an incumbent retires, rendering the open seat more vulnerable.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 25, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 21, 2016

National Politics |By Charlie Cook, March 21, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 17, 2016

Political Books|By Michael Nelson, March 21, 2016

The ESPN series 30 for 30 is best known for its consistently excellent documentaries on sports. The original idea was to mark the network’s 30th anniversary in 2009 by commissioning 30 documentaries on slightly offbeat topics from independent film makers not necessarily known for their sports-related work.

National Politics|By David Wasserman, March 18, 2016

After sweeping all five contests in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton has built an even more insurmountable lead over Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination. Clinton now hows a pledged delegate lead of 1,139 to 825, meaning Sanders would need to win 58 percent of the remaining pledged delegates at stake to draw even with Clinton by June....

National Politics|By David Wasserman, March 18, 2016

Tuesday didn't tell us whether Donald Trump will win 1,237 delegates by June. But the results virtually guarantee that the GOP primaries will rage all the way until the very last contests in California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, and South Dakota on June 7 - and possibly to a contested convention in July. For the first time in a long time, every state will matter.

House Overview|By David Wasserman, March 18, 2016

They're about to detonate a nuclear bomb on themselves," said one savvy House Democratic strategist following Tuesday's primaries. "If Ted Cruz is your back up plan, you're screwed," the strategist gleefully added. Maybe that's true, and maybe it's not. But now that it's extremely likely that the Republican Party will nominate Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, congressional Republicans are entering...

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, March 18, 2016

Georgia: In 2014, Democrats believed that Georgia was one red state that they could turn blue. They had a very strong nominee in former Points of Light Foundation CEO Michelle Nunn and Republicans hosted a crowded primary and contentious run-off before nominating businessman David Perdue. Nunn couldn’t survive the midterm tide and Perdue won the race with 53 percent. While Democrats perform...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

How Fake News Undermines Democracy

January 17, 2017

Al­most 130 years ago, Ger­man philo­soph­er Friedrich Ni­et­z­sche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a per­verse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made Pres­id­ent-elect Trump stronger this week.

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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