Our 2016 results resources
The 2018 election cycle has started and Republicans find themselves in an interesting place. On the one hand, the tables are turned as they will get to play offense. There are 33 races in 2018 and Democrats will defend 25 of those seats while Republicans will defend just eight of them.
Most Democrats were anticipating Hillary Clinton would have short coattails, but few anticipated that Donald Trump's coattails would end up helping many down-ballot Republicans win and even give several Democrats unexpectedly close calls. Yet that's what happened on Tuesday. Democrats scored a meager gain of 6 or 7 seats, depending on the final outcome in CA-49, and remarkably, Republicans will...
In 1998, The Cook Political Report started keeping tabs on the outcome of the seats in the Toss Up column. Over the years, it became obvious that the seats that were considered too close to call on Election Day never split down the middle. Instead one party has always won a comfortable majority of them.
The classification of "Toss Up" is used to refer to those races which are the most competitive of the cycle, and which either party stands a reasonable chance of winning. Yet, if the results of Toss Up races taken together actually broke down like coin flips, we would expect to see parties walking away with roughly equal shares of these competitive seats each year. In reality, the closest races...
It's finally Election day. With 435 House races, 34 Senate races, 12 Governors races and tight race for the White House, there’s lots to keep track of. To cut through the information overload, we created a handy cheat sheet for our subscribers to keep up our most competitive races.
We invited all of the state political academic experts who have contributed to the “Battleground States” series to offer a final prediction of both the presidential vote in their state and (other than the presidential election) the biggest political headline in Wednesday edition of the state’s leading newspaper. Here are the responses we received.
As the 2016 election approaches its unmerciful end, Republican control of the House isn't in much doubt, but the final margin is unknown. The Cook Political Report's outlook is a Democratic gain of between 5 and 20 seats, a wide range that reflects the uncertainty of the presidential margin. But Republicans are feeling more optimistic that they can keep their losses to just 5 to 10 seats, which...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
How Fake News Undermines DemocracyJanuary 17, 2017
Almost 130 years ago, German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a perverse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made President-elect Trump stronger this week.Read more »
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Amy Walter, National Editor
Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »