Regular readers of this column can probably guess that I am fairly skeptical about the success of Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency, but that doesn’t stop me from giving him a huzzah for calling out House Republicans for their attempt to gut the Office of Congressional Ethics. In a closed-door meeting of the House GOP Conference, both Speaker Paul Ryan and...
Prior to the November election, there was considerable talk about how the Republican Party would need to put itself back together after Donald Trump’s expected presidential loss. Now it’s the Democrats who have to figure out a strategy for the post-Obama and post-Clinton era. But they don’t seem much interested in introspection, which is surprising considering...
Some things in politics are hard to reconcile. Since Donald Trump’s election last month, economic optimism has skyrocketed. The Conference Board reported earlier this week that its December Consumer Confidence Survey hit its highest levels since August 2001, and that while feelings about the current economy declined slightly, expectations for the economy over the...
The November elections pitted Democrats against Republicans, conservatives against liberals, Trump-style populists and tea partiers against the establishment and conventional politicians.
If Democrats want to keep blaming others for their sorry performance on Election Day, they’re obviously free to do so. Yes, they were hurt by the disclosure of Hillary Clinton’s private email server, claims that the Clinton Foundation was a “pay-to-play” operation, and even fake news. Yes, if FBI Director James Comey hadn’t reopened the Clinton email investigation,...
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s victory was definitely THE most interesting thing that happened in the 2016 election, but it certainly wasn’t the only interesting thing. In keeping with our end-of-cycle tradition, we found 56 more interesting things to tide you over during the holidays as we take a well-earned break. The weekly update will return on Friday, January 12, 2017....
As the professional political class continues to debate the reasons for Donald Trump’s victory, those who voted for him are very clear on why he won and what they expect from him once he’s in office. This was a vote for “drastic change”. They don’t want Trump to act more “presidential” (well, they’d like him to stop tweeting so much). But, overall the message and the messenger are one in the...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
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– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
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Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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