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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 10, 2017

Reg­u­lar read­ers of this column can prob­ably guess that I am fairly skep­tic­al about the suc­cess of Don­ald Trump’s up­com­ing pres­id­ency, but that doesn’t stop me from giv­ing him a huzzah for call­ing out House Re­pub­lic­ans for their at­tempt to gut the Of­fice of Con­gres­sion­al Eth­ics. In a closed-door meet­ing of the House GOP Con­fer­ence, both Speak­er Paul Ry­an and...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 6, 2017

Pri­or to the Novem­ber elec­tion, there was con­sid­er­able talk about how the Re­pub­lic­an Party would need to put it­self back to­geth­er after Don­ald Trump’s ex­pec­ted pres­id­en­tial loss. Now it’s the Demo­crats who have to fig­ure out a strategy for the post-Obama and post-Clin­ton era. But they don’t seem much in­ter­ested in in­tro­spec­tion, which is sur­pris­ing con­sid­er­ing...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 3, 2017

Some things in polit­ics are hard to re­con­cile. Since Don­ald Trump’s elec­tion last month, eco­nom­ic op­tim­ism has skyrock­eted. The Con­fer­ence Board re­por­ted earli­er this week that its Decem­ber Con­sumer Con­fid­ence Sur­vey hit its highest levels since Au­gust 2001, and that while feel­ings about the cur­rent eco­nomy de­clined slightly, ex­pect­a­tions for the eco­nomy over the...

National Politics|By David Wasserman, January 2, 2017

The tracker will be updated in real time as vote totals continue to update.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, December 30, 2016

The Novem­ber elec­tions pit­ted Demo­crats against Re­pub­lic­ans, con­ser­vat­ives against lib­er­als, Trump-style pop­u­lists and tea parti­ers against the es­tab­lish­ment and con­ven­tion­al politi­cians.

National Politics |By Charlie Cook, December 27, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on December 23, 2016

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, December 23, 2016

If Demo­crats want to keep blam­ing oth­ers for their sorry per­form­ance on Elec­tion Day, they’re ob­vi­ously free to do so. Yes, they were hurt by the dis­clos­ure of Hil­lary Clin­ton’s private email serv­er, claims that the Clin­ton Found­a­tion was a “pay-to-play” op­er­a­tion, and even fake news. Yes, if FBI Dir­ect­or James Comey hadn’t re­opened the Clin­ton email in­vest­ig­a­tion,...

National Politics|By Cook Political Report Staff, December 16, 2016

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s victory was definitely THE most interesting thing that happened in the 2016 election, but it certainly wasn’t the only interesting thing. In keeping with our end-of-cycle tradition, we found 56 more interesting things to tide you over during the holidays as we take a well-earned break. The weekly update will return on Friday, January 12, 2017....

National Politics|By Amy Walter, December 15, 2016

As the professional political class continues to debate the reasons for Donald Trump’s victory, those who voted for him are very clear on why he won and what they expect from him once he’s in office. This was a vote for “drastic change”. They don’t want Trump to act more “presidential” (well, they’d like him to stop tweeting so much). But, overall the message and the messenger are one in the...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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  • A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans

February 28, 2017

The two-thirds of Re­pub­lic­ans in the House who have nev­er served when the GOP held ma­jor­it­ies in the House and Sen­ate along­side a GOP pres­id­ent can be for­giv­en for not re­mem­ber­ing the last time they were sim­il­arly situ­ated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Demo­crats were last in that situ­ation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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