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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 9, 2017

Fin­ish­ing Amie Parnes and Jonath­an Al­len’s en­gross­ing book, Shattered: In­side Hil­lary Clin­ton’s Doomed Cam­paign, listen­ing to Clin­ton of­fer­ing her per­spect­ive on why she lost to CNN’s Chris­ti­ane Aman­pour, and watch­ing FBI Dir­ect­or James Comey testi­fy be­fore the Sen­ate Ju­di­ciary Com­mit­tee in the same week leaves a de­cidedly mixed view of the last elec­tion.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, May 9, 2017

Much was made of recent polling showing a spike in the percentage of Americans who say they want a more active or bigger government. An April NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 57 percent of Americans wanted to see “government do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people” — up seven points from 2015. In the April Pew Poll, 48 percent said they were supportive of “bigger...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, May 5, 2017

Republicans' 217-213 passage of the American Health Care Act on Thursday guarantees Democrats will have at least one major on-the-record vote to exploit in the next elections. Although it's the first of potentially many explosive votes, House Republicans' willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 5, 2017

The bit­ter par­tis­an­ship that has en­vel­oped Cap­it­ol Hill, the White House, Wash­ing­ton, and the coun­try is deeply troub­ling, and it’s get­ting worse. Today, col­legi­al­ity and co­oper­a­tion between the parties is more the ex­cep­tion than the rule. An ex­ample of the ex­cep­tion was the un­veil­ing last week of the por­trait of former House En­ergy and Com­merce Com­mit­tee...

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, May 5, 2017

Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats in states that President Donald Trump carried in 2016. These 10 incumbents – a.k.a. The Ten – will spend the cycle making some interesting decisions about whether to side with their party or vote with their more Republican-leaning constituents.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, May 2, 2017

In Texas, when people talk loudly and prom­ise a lot but de­liv­er little, they are said to be “all hat and no cattle.” On the eve of Pres­id­ent Trump’s first 100 days, that’s a pretty apt de­scrip­tion of his first few months in of­fice. The first-100-day yard­stick may be ar­ti­fi­cial and ar­bit­rary, but his cor­ral is pretty empty, at least le­gis­lat­ively. Al­though a little over two...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, May 2, 2017

One of the biggest questions during the 2016 campaign was if the GOP party would ever accept Donald Trump, an outsider to the party, as its standard bearer. More than once during 2016 I was convinced that the Republican Party would break apart rather than coalesce around a candidate whose behavior, values and ideology were so foreign to its core. Of course, that proved to be wrong as 90 percent...

Florida House|By David Wasserman, May 1, 2017

Florida GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's retirement, first reported by the Miami Herald, vaults her Miami district to the very top of Democrats' takeover list. Over 27 years in the House, Ros-Lehtinen's reputation as firmly anti-Castro but strongly pro-gay rights made her highly popular back home, even as FL-27 trended away from the national GOP. Now Democrats will be favored to win the district,...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 27, 2017

It is ab­so­lutely true that there is noth­ing spe­cial about a new pres­id­ent’s first 100 days. It is an ar­bit­rary and ar­ti­fi­cial con­struct, a met­ric set up long ago that is now co­di­fied, like mara­thons be­ing 26.2 miles. Just as Kim Kar­dashi­an is fam­ous for be­ing fam­ous, the first 100 days is im­port­ant be­cause it is im­port­ant. NPR seni­or ed­it­or and long­time...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Tennessee  |  Governor  |  Haslam (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Kansas  |  Governor  |  Brownback (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Illinois  |  Governor  |  Rauner (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New Mexico  |  Governor  |  Martinez (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

New Jersey  |  Governor  |  Christie (R)

Likely D
Lean D

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under Trump

June 23, 2017

For con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans in the new norm of the Trump pres­id­ency, noth­ing is easy, and everything is hard. Rais­ing the debt ceil­ing in or­der to keep the gov­ern­ment from de­fault­ing on its debt is nor­mally easy; now it is hard. Passing an om­ni­bus budget bill to simply keep the gov­ern­ment op­er­at­ing (for­get the idea of passing the full bat­tery of 12 ap­pro­pri­ations...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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