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National Politics|By Michael Nelson, March 7, 2016

Donald Trump’s strong frontrunner status and the desperate efforts of many traditional Republicans to derail his candidacy have raised the possibility of a contested convention in July, when Republican delegates gather in Cleveland to choose their candidate for president.

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, March 4, 2016

It’s been an interesting week for Republican Senate incumbents up for re-election this year. Primaries in Alabama and Arkansas provided the first pieces of evidence that the mere presence of GOP presidential candidate Donald J. Trump on the ballot isn’t hurting Senate incumbents. At the same time, the GOP leadership’s decision not to even entertain a nominee to replace the late Antonin Scalia...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, March 4, 2016

Many Republicans on Capitol Hill may be trembling at the prospect of sharing a November ballot with Donald Trump, but some may also be breathing a sigh of relief after Super Tuesday. The phenomenon of fed-up, anti-Washington Trump voters packing primary polling sites raised the prospect that some longtime incumbents could be vulnerable to a mob mentality. Instead, Trump's wins didn't appear to...

National Politics|By David Wasserman, March 3, 2016

Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of 4,763 delegates to the Philadelphia convention to clinch the Democratic nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard estimating how many delegates Clinton and Sanders would need to win in each primary, caucus and convention to become the nominee.

National Politics|By David Wasserman, March 3, 2016

A candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland GOP convention to clinch the Republican nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard estimating how many delegates each of the four leading GOP contenders would need to win in each state and territory to attain 1,237 delegates by June.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 3, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 25, 2016

National Politics|By Michael Nelson, March 2, 2016

Republican senators now face a dilemma similar to that faced by their Democratic predecessors at about this time in 1988, the final year of President Ronald Reagan’s second term: Do you confirm the nomination of a Supreme Court justice whose jurisprudence you disagree with, or do you block the nomination and run the risk that the next president will choose someone with whom you strongly...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, March 2, 2016

There are only two real storylines out of Tuesday night’s SEC primary: 1. Trump is on a roll and more likely than not, on a path to the GOP nomination; and 2. there is no consensus alternative to Trump. Here are my four quick takeaways for what Super Tuesday means going forward.

National Politics|By David Wasserman, February 29, 2016

Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of Democrats' 4,763 delegates to the Philadelphia convention to clinch the nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard estimating how many delegates Clinton and Sanders...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Two Special Elections Add Suspense to Midterms

April 25, 2017

Two con­gres­sion­al spe­cial elec­tions in as many weeks make clear that while the Re­pub­lic­an Party is not in a free fall, things are not co­pacet­ic, either. Re­pub­lic­an state Treas­urer Ron Estes won last week’s spe­cial elec­tion in Kan­sas’s 4th Dis­trict to fill the va­cancy cre­ated by Mike Pom­peo’s nom­in­a­tion to head the CIA, but his 5-point vic­tory was far short of the...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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