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POLITICAL ADVERTISING|By Elizabeth Wilner, January 28, 2016

Pop quiz: which Senate incumbent or candidate running in 2016 has spent the most money on TV so far?

National Politics|By Amy Walter, January 27, 2016

I have no idea what is going to happen in Iowa and New Hampshire. If the polls are correct, Donald Trump is on his way to victory in both states. On the Democratic side, Iowa is a coin-toss and Bernie Sanders wins big in New Hampshire. But, I also have little confidence that this is how things will work out. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by anything.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook and David Wasserman, January 26, 2016

In private con­ver­sa­tions with roughly a dozen GOP mem­bers of the House over the past two weeks, what’s strik­ing is their struggle to recon­cile their own de­sire to re­cap­ture the White House with GOP primary voters’ pref­er­ences in their dis­tricts. Re­ac­tions to grass­roots groundswells of sup­port for Don­ald Trump and Ted Cruz, even among mem­bers from rur­al deep-red dis­tricts,...

GOVERNORS OVERVIEW|By Michael Nelson, January 25, 2016

It’s widely believed that one possible outcome of a Clinton-Trump or a Clinton-Cruz matchup in November is a Democratic landslide that extends not just to the presidency but also to the Senate (probably) and the House (possibly).

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, January 22, 2016

Alabama Senate: Republican Sen. Richard Shelby hasn’t gotten less than 60 percent of the vote since 1992 when he was running for a second term. He won his first Senate race in 1986 with 50 percent. The incumbent’s bid for a sixth term won’t be any different, especially in a presidential election year in deeply red Alabama. Shelby does have to contend with four primary opponents running to his...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, January 22, 2016

Some­times politi­cians get in­to a tough po­s­i­tion with no easy way out, and their best op­tion is just to plow straight ahead. Hil­lary Clin­ton is now in such a po­s­i­tion.

National Politics|By David Wasserman, January 21, 2016

In the wake of new Iowa and New Hampshire polls showing Bernie Sanders gaining, some say it's time for Hillary Clinton to hit the panic button. "Clinton should ABSOLUTELY be nervous about the state of the race with less than three weeks before voters in Iowa head to the caucuses," the Washington Post's Fix blog blared last week.

National Politics|By Michael Nelson, January 20, 2016

The issue of whether the constitutional requirement that the president be a “natural born Citizen” excludes someone born of an American parent living abroad has once again reared its head in an election campaign, this time in the form of Donald Trump’s charge that the Canadian-born Ted Cruz may not be legally eligible to serve. I’m not going to try to settle that one here, except to note that...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, January 18, 2016

No one really won and no one lost. Well, except for poor Gov. Martin O’Malley who seemed to have been given a total of 46 seconds of talking time by the NBC moderators.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans

February 28, 2017

The two-thirds of Re­pub­lic­ans in the House who have nev­er served when the GOP held ma­jor­it­ies in the House and Sen­ate along­side a GOP pres­id­ent can be for­giv­en for not re­mem­ber­ing the last time they were sim­il­arly situ­ated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Demo­crats were last in that situ­ation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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