Donald Trump’s strong frontrunner status and the desperate efforts of many traditional Republicans to derail his candidacy have raised the possibility of a contested convention in July, when Republican delegates gather in Cleveland to choose their candidate for president.
It’s been an interesting week for Republican Senate incumbents up for re-election this year. Primaries in Alabama and Arkansas provided the first pieces of evidence that the mere presence of GOP presidential candidate Donald J. Trump on the ballot isn’t hurting Senate incumbents. At the same time, the GOP leadership’s decision not to even entertain a nominee to replace the late Antonin Scalia...
Many Republicans on Capitol Hill may be trembling at the prospect of sharing a November ballot with Donald Trump, but some may also be breathing a sigh of relief after Super Tuesday. The phenomenon of fed-up, anti-Washington Trump voters packing primary polling sites raised the prospect that some longtime incumbents could be vulnerable to a mob mentality. Instead, Trump's wins didn't appear to...
Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of 4,763 delegates to the Philadelphia convention to clinch the Democratic nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard estimating how many delegates Clinton and Sanders would need to win in each primary, caucus and convention to become the nominee.
A candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland GOP convention to clinch the Republican nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard estimating how many delegates each of the four leading GOP contenders would need to win in each state and territory to attain 1,237 delegates by June.
Republican senators now face a dilemma similar to that faced by their Democratic predecessors at about this time in 1988, the final year of President Ronald Reagan’s second term: Do you confirm the nomination of a Supreme Court justice whose jurisprudence you disagree with, or do you block the nomination and run the risk that the next president will choose someone with whom you strongly...
There are only two real storylines out of Tuesday night’s SEC primary: 1. Trump is on a roll and more likely than not, on a path to the GOP nomination; and 2. there is no consensus alternative to Trump. Here are my four quick takeaways for what Super Tuesday means going forward.
Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of Democrats' 4,763 delegates to the Philadelphia convention to clinch the nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard estimating how many delegates Clinton and Sanders...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
Two Special Elections Add Suspense to MidtermsApril 25, 2017
Two congressional special elections in as many weeks make clear that while the Republican Party is not in a free fall, things are not copacetic, either. Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes won last week’s special election in Kansas’s 4th District to fill the vacancy created by Mike Pompeo’s nomination to head the CIA, but his 5-point victory was far short of the...Read more »
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »