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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 8, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 4, 2016

National Politics|By Amy Walter, April 6, 2016

Senators Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders romped to big wins in the Badger State last night, halting the momentum of frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. However, it did little to change the delegate math. Sanders netted just 10 delegates (dropping Clinton’s lead from 255 to 245 pledged delegates). Trump’s delegate lead was cut by 30, yet he still retains a 245 delegate lead over Cruz.

National Politics |By Charlie Cook, April 5, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 31, 2016

National Politics|By David Wasserman, April 5, 2016

If Ted Cruz wins by a huge margin in Milwaukee’s suburbs, as expected tonight, he’ll get all three delegates from Wisconsin’s 5th Congressional District, which cast 257,017 votes for Mitt Romney in the 2012 general election. But in two weeks, Donald Trump could capture just as many delegates by winning a majority of the vote in New York’s heavily Latino, Bronx-based 15th Congressional District,...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, April 1, 2016

The prospect of a GOP implosion at the top of the ticket suddenly has House Democrats energized about making a big dent in the GOP's 30-seat majority or even putting the majority in play. The only problem is that House Democrats don't look all that well-equipped to capitalize on a wave. Even though Donald Trump has been the GOP's clear front-runner for several months, we haven't seen a surge of...

National Politics |By Charlie Cook, April 1, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 28, 2016

National Politics|By Michael Nelson, March 30, 2016

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson probably won’t get the 11% of the national popular vote that a recent Monmouth University Poll trial heat shows him getting against Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But he’ll almost certainly smash the record for vote share earned by any Libertarian Party candidates for president.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, March 30, 2016

Poll after poll finds Donald Trump the least qualified Republican to beat Hillary Clinton in November. And yet, he keeps winning GOP primary contests. Is this because Republican primary voters believe Trump CAN win in November (despite polls showing otherwise)? Or is it that they don’t value the issue of electability in the first place? It looks like a combination of both.

National Politics|By David Wasserman, March 29, 2016

The Republican Party may be on the verge of an irrational break. Donald Trump continues to rack up delegates at a dizzying pace, but he looks less electable against Hillary Clinton by the day. Meanwhile, two-thirds of the way through the delegate chase, the #NeverTrump movement is a flailing strategic fiasco. John Kasich refuses to exit the race, and a frustrated Ted Cruz has declared that a...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Tennessee  |  Governor  |  Haslam (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Kansas  |  Governor  |  Brownback (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Illinois  |  Governor  |  Rauner (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New Mexico  |  Governor  |  Martinez (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

New Jersey  |  Governor  |  Christie (R)

Likely D
Lean D

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under Trump

June 23, 2017

For con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans in the new norm of the Trump pres­id­ency, noth­ing is easy, and everything is hard. Rais­ing the debt ceil­ing in or­der to keep the gov­ern­ment from de­fault­ing on its debt is nor­mally easy; now it is hard. Passing an om­ni­bus budget bill to simply keep the gov­ern­ment op­er­at­ing (for­get the idea of passing the full bat­tery of 12 ap­pro­pri­ations...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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