This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 4, 2016
Senators Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders romped to big wins in the Badger State last night, halting the momentum of frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. However, it did little to change the delegate math. Sanders netted just 10 delegates (dropping Clinton’s lead from 255 to 245 pledged delegates). Trump’s delegate lead was cut by 30, yet he still retains a 245 delegate lead over Cruz.
If Ted Cruz wins by a huge margin in Milwaukee’s suburbs, as expected tonight, he’ll get all three delegates from Wisconsin’s 5th Congressional District, which cast 257,017 votes for Mitt Romney in the 2012 general election. But in two weeks, Donald Trump could capture just as many delegates by winning a majority of the vote in New York’s heavily Latino, Bronx-based 15th Congressional District,...
The prospect of a GOP implosion at the top of the ticket suddenly has House Democrats energized about making a big dent in the GOP's 30-seat majority or even putting the majority in play. The only problem is that House Democrats don't look all that well-equipped to capitalize on a wave. Even though Donald Trump has been the GOP's clear front-runner for several months, we haven't seen a surge of...
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 28, 2016
Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson probably won’t get the 11% of the national popular vote that a recent Monmouth University Poll trial heat shows him getting against Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But he’ll almost certainly smash the record for vote share earned by any Libertarian Party candidates for president.
Poll after poll finds Donald Trump the least qualified Republican to beat Hillary Clinton in November. And yet, he keeps winning GOP primary contests. Is this because Republican primary voters believe Trump CAN win in November (despite polls showing otherwise)? Or is it that they don’t value the issue of electability in the first place? It looks like a combination of both.
The Republican Party may be on the verge of an irrational break. Donald Trump continues to rack up delegates at a dizzying pace, but he looks less electable against Hillary Clinton by the day. Meanwhile, two-thirds of the way through the delegate chase, the #NeverTrump movement is a flailing strategic fiasco. John Kasich refuses to exit the race, and a frustrated Ted Cruz has declared that a...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under TrumpJune 23, 2017
For congressional Republicans in the new norm of the Trump presidency, nothing is easy, and everything is hard. Raising the debt ceiling in order to keep the government from defaulting on its debt is normally easy; now it is hard. Passing an omnibus budget bill to simply keep the government operating (forget the idea of passing the full battery of 12 appropriations...Read more »
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