More money has been spent on television advertising in this nascent presidential race than has ever been spent by this point before. And yet for many candidates, the rising tide isn't lifting their boats. Jeb Bush is the glaring example: $35 million spent on TV ads on his behalf as of December 14 and poll standings in single digits. But one analyst for another campaign who has been tracking ad...
Being successful in politics depends on meeting voters where they are, not where you think they are or, where you think they should be. It’s about recognizing the political environment and working with it, not against it.
Ever since winning control of the House of Representatives in 2010, the Republican party in Congress has been divided internally on a basic question: what is Republicans’ role as a congressional majority in divided government? The party has split not so much on questions of public policy as on strategy. At their root, these disputes center on the Republican Congress’s responsibility for...
To most Republican strategists, there's no bigger nightmare than Donald Trump as the GOP's presidential nominee in 2016. This week, just about every Democrat running for president, Senate, House, and their respective campaign committees sought to tie Republicans to Trump and brand them one big bunch of xenophobes. Talk of a down-ballot Republican apocalypse has reached fever pitch.
Democratic Rep. Bobby Rush has easily won reelection in a heavily African-American Chicago seat for 24 years, but his fight for a 13th term may be decided in a courtroom rather than at the polls. It's a well-worn tradition in Illinois politics to challenge petition signatures, but primary challenger Chicago Alderman Howard Brookins, Jr. is confident Rush is 572 signatures short of the 1,314 he...
Never having been president, I can only guess that the day of the Kennedy Center Honors extravaganza would be one of the most enjoyable of the year. Not the part about dressing up in formal wear, necessarily. But spending an afternoon and evening hanging out with some of the most accomplished people in music and the arts, some of them our heroes, and listening to...
Thus far, this campaign has provided more questions than answers. I have dubbed the motto for 2016: WTF?!. But, some questions are more important – and the answers more consequential – than others. Here are the four BIG QUESTIONS that, when answered, will help us not only determine who the nominee will be, but also understand how he/she got there.
Republicans contend that the 2016 election will be about Americans’ desire for change after eight years of a Democratic president. Democrats hope the election will tell a different story of change: a continued march toward a more diverse electorate that is ever more hostile to the GOP’s Electoral College fortunes.
The centennial of Frank Sinatra’s birth this Saturday is being celebrated for all sorts of reasons, most of them musical and cinematic. An aspect of the Sinatra legacy that’s easy to overlook is the weaving together of the celebrity world with the world of politics that, for better or worse, Sinatra pioneered.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
How Fake News Undermines DemocracyJanuary 17, 2017
Almost 130 years ago, German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche wrote, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” In a perverse way, BuzzFeed and CNN made President-elect Trump stronger this week.Read more »
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