President-elect Donald Trump’s success at breaking the so-called “blue wall” – those Rust Belt states that had voted for a Democrat in every election since at least 1992 – was the key to his victory. To help understand how he did this, I compared exit poll data from the last three elections in those states – 2012, 2014, and 2016. There were three over-arching themes in terms of demographics: 1)...
The 2016 Senate race cycle comes to a close Saturday when Louisiana holds its run-off election between Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy and Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell. The run-off has been so quiet and free of conflict that it’s easy to forget that it is on the calendar.
Virtually every day, President-elect Donald Trump says or does something that many in the Washington establishment find horrifying. Most, though certainly not all, of his decisions and actions run against the grain of people who, like myself, look at politics and policy through pretty traditional lenses. A key question is whether these objections are more of an...
This list of potential candidates for the /2018 election is highly speculative and contains names that have been mentioned as either publicly or privately considering candidacies, or worthy of consideration as candidates or recruiting prospects by the parties or interest groups.
A tweet by Donald Trump earlier this week caused eye-rolling among people with an even cursory knowledge of constitutional law. “Nobody should be allowed to burn the American flag—if they do, there must be consequences—perhaps loss of citizenship or year in jail,” Trump pronounced. Burning the flag is pretty despicable, but it’s a form of protected free speech, which was...
The 38 Governors races on the ballot in 2017 and 2018 may end up being the biggest story of the cycle. There is a lot at stake for both parties as most of the Governors elected this cycle will be in office in 2021 when the next round of redistricting takes place. Thus, there is no time like the present to unveil the first iteration of gubernatorial ratings of the cycle.
In just a few weeks Democrats have gone from driving for what figured to be an easy lay up to having the rest of the season cancelled, with the next season in real doubt. They seemed to have the presidency in hand, a majority in the Senate very likely, and, while winning a majority in the House was always unrealistic, they did seem to have a good chance to cut the GOP...
This list of potential candidates for the 2017/2018 election is highly speculative and contains names that have been mentioned as either publicly or privately considering candidacies, or worthy of consideration as candidates or recruiting prospects by the parties or interest groups.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House RepublicansFebruary 28, 2017
The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate alongside a GOP president can be forgiven for not remembering the last time they were similarly situated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Democrats were last in that situation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...Read more »
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »