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National Politics|By Amy Walter, December 9, 2016

President-elect Donald Trump’s success at breaking the so-called “blue wall” – those Rust Belt states that had voted for a Democrat in every election since at least 1992 – was the key to his victory. To help understand how he did this, I compared exit poll data from the last three elections in those states – 2012, 2014, and 2016. There were three over-arching themes in terms of demographics: 1)...

Louisiana Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, December 9, 2016

The 2016 Senate race cycle comes to a close Saturday when Louisiana holds its run-off election between Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy and Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell. The run-off has been so quiet and free of conflict that it’s easy to forget that it is on the calendar.

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, December 9, 2016

Contests for the U.S. Senate aren’t heating up quite as fast as those for Governor in 2018, but that doesn’t mean it will be a quiet cycle.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, December 9, 2016

Vir­tu­ally every day, Pres­id­ent-elect Don­ald Trump says or does something that many in the Wash­ing­ton es­tab­lish­ment find hor­ri­fy­ing. Most, though cer­tainly not all, of his de­cisions and ac­tions run against the grain of people who, like my­self, look at polit­ics and policy through pretty tra­di­tion­al lenses. A key ques­tion is wheth­er these ob­jec­tions are more of an...

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, December 8, 2016

This list of potential candidates for the /2018 election is highly speculative and contains names that have been mentioned as either publicly or privately considering candidacies, or worthy of consideration as candidates or recruiting prospects by the parties or interest groups.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, December 6, 2016

A tweet by Don­ald Trump earli­er this week caused eye-rolling among people with an even curs­ory know­ledge of con­sti­tu­tion­al law. “Nobody should be al­lowed to burn the Amer­ic­an flag—if they do, there must be con­sequences—per­haps loss of cit­izen­ship or year in jail,” Trump pro­nounced. Burn­ing the flag is pretty despic­able, but it’s a form of pro­tec­ted free speech, which was...

GOVERNORS overview|By Jennifer Duffy, December 2, 2016

The 38 Governors races on the ballot in 2017 and 2018 may end up being the biggest story of the cycle. There is a lot at stake for both parties as most of the Governors elected this cycle will be in office in 2021 when the next round of redistricting takes place. Thus, there is no time like the present to unveil the first iteration of gubernatorial ratings of the cycle.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, December 2, 2016

In just a few weeks Demo­crats have gone from driv­ing for what figured to be an easy lay up to hav­ing the rest of the sea­son can­celled, with the next sea­son in real doubt. They seemed to have the pres­id­ency in hand, a ma­jor­ity in the Sen­ate very likely, and, while win­ning a ma­jor­ity in the House was al­ways un­real­ist­ic, they did seem to have a good chance to cut the GOP...

GOVERNORS overview|By Jennifer Duffy, December 2, 2016

This list of potential candidates for the 2017/2018 election is highly speculative and contains names that have been mentioned as either publicly or privately considering candidacies, or worthy of consideration as candidates or recruiting prospects by the parties or interest groups.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans

February 28, 2017

The two-thirds of Re­pub­lic­ans in the House who have nev­er served when the GOP held ma­jor­it­ies in the House and Sen­ate along­side a GOP pres­id­ent can be for­giv­en for not re­mem­ber­ing the last time they were sim­il­arly situ­ated. It was 2006, and they lost 30 seats in the House. When Demo­crats were last in that situ­ation, it was 2010 and they lost 63 House seats. When one party...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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