Two congressional special elections in as many weeks make clear that while the Republican Party is not in a free fall, things are not copacetic, either. Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes won last week’s special election in Kansas’s 4th District to fill the vacancy created by Mike Pompeo’s nomination to head the CIA, but his 5-point victory was far short of the...
So, here we are at President Trump’s first 100 day mark. As we’ve been reminded over and over again this week, Trump, when compared to presidents past, is the most unpopular at this stage of his presidency. Despite the president’s boasts of productivity and his own self-imposed 100-day deadlines, he’s got little to show for his first few months in Washington.
This week, Democrats landed their top recruit against GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock when state Sen. Jennifer Wexton announced her candidacy, vaulting VA-10 to the top of their 2018 takeover target list. Comstock, who prevailed 53 percent to 47 percent last fall while President Trump lost her Northern Virginia seat by 10 points, represents a rapidly Democratic-trending area that would be adversely...
Among Kay Ivey’s first acts in her new role as Governor was to overturn a decision by her predecessor Robert Bentley to hold the special election to finish the remainder of former Jeff Sessions’ term on November 8 of 2018 to coincide with state and federal elections. Ivey took the side of those who have argued that a special election must be held this year. As such, she set a primary for...
The media and critics on the Left are having a field day attacking President Trump’s rather numerous and often dramatic changes of heart on policy—whether China manipulates its currency, the necessity of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and NATO, and the U.S.’s strategic posture in Syria.
If you had told Democrats three months ago that first-time candidate Jon Ossoff would have taken 48 percent of the vote to advance to the GA-06 runoff against GOP former Secretary of State Karen Handel (20 percent), they would have been ecstatic. Now, after all the celebrity tweets, over $10 million raised and more hype than any House race has ever generated, Ossoff's failure to hit 50 percent...
The bottom didn’t fall out for Republicans in this week’s House special election to replace newly-minted CIA Director Mike Pompeo, but a yellow caution light is definitely flashing for the GOP.
The surprising closeness of the KS-04 special election has Democrats excited about Jon Ossoff's prospects of winning GA-06 outright by hitting 50 percent of the vote in Tuesday's primary election. After all, the thinking goes, if Republican Ron Estes (KS-04) won by only seven points in a district President Trump carried by 27, then surely Ossoff can attain a majority in a district Trump only...
There’s nothing those inside the beltway love more than a good White House “palace intrigue” story. It’s the kind of stuff that DC’s gossip driven culture is built for. But, what about folks who don’t live here and who have real lives? Do they really care about the Steve Bannon/Jared Kushner battles? Will it matter in the long term? Is it taking a toll on the President and his agenda? Here’s...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
No Easy Wins for GOP Lawmakers Under TrumpJune 23, 2017
For congressional Republicans in the new norm of the Trump presidency, nothing is easy, and everything is hard. Raising the debt ceiling in order to keep the government from defaulting on its debt is normally easy; now it is hard. Passing an omnibus budget bill to simply keep the government operating (forget the idea of passing the full battery of 12 appropriations...Read more »
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